1st-and-10: A moment of truth for Matt Eberflus

In the polar world of sports debate, the Bears’ 31-26 loss to the Lions had something for everybody. 

If you’re still holding out hope for Matt Eberflus, Luke Getsy and Justin Fields, the first three-plus quarters confirmed your belief in the process.

The Bears scored on their first possession and had 343 total yards in the first 55:15 of the game — the third most against the Lions defense this season. Fields had 104 rushing yards and a 109.8 passer rating with no turnovers. The defense, finally at full strength, had three interceptions against a quarterback who had thrown five all season. The Bears dominated the third quarter — a positive sign for the coaching staff — outscoring the Lions 10-0 with takeaways on defense and special teams. 

This wasn’t the 0-3 Broncos or the middling Commanders. The Bears were outplaying a Super Bowl contending team playing before a sell-out crowd on its home field. After a Jared Goff incompletion in the fourth quarter that was nearly intercepted for a pick-6 by Jaylon Johnson, those fans were booing a team that has given them more hope and joy than they’ve felt in nearly a decade. The Bears weren’t about to just win. They were making a statement. 

And for Bears fans who have already given up on Eberflus and his coaching staff, the final 4:15 of the game confirmed your belief that Eberflus is in over his head as an NFL head coach. 

The Bears imploded offensively and defensively. They allowed the Lions to drive 75 yards on six plays in 1:16 for one touchdown and 73 yards on 11 plays in 2:04 for the game-winner. In between, the offense went three-and-out, throwing a third-down deep ball to a fourth-round rookie wide receiver instead of finding DJ Moore, the receiver who was brought here for that close-the-door moment. 

It was confirmation that the Bears’ inability to win close games last year under Eberflus — a trend that was overlooked by many of us as a means to an end — was actually the red flag that skeptics said it was. This wasn’t just a loss. It was a statement.

So what is the reality? We’re about to find out, as Eberflus faces a moment of truth in his next two games — against the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium and the Lions at Soldier Field. 

Those two games will define the direction of Eberflus’ Bears — two games against division opponents who are playoff contenders. Two rematches — a chance for Eberflus and his staff to show how well they learn and adjust and anticipate their opponents’ adjustments. Two games with a healthier Justin Fields and a defense that, with Montez Sweat getting acclimated, is as strong as it’s been in Eberflus’ two seasons. 

Even Bears linebacker and life-long Bears fan T.J. Edwards gets it. 

“It’s a massive game [against the Vikings on Monday night],” Edwards said. “We’re gonna find out who we are this week and find out how much we can really dig deep and figure out if we can go out and get this win. I’m confident we can. We’ve got the players to do it. We’ve got the coaches to do it. We’ve got those things in place.” 

We’ll see about that, and soon. Because the time for consistency is now. The time to finish is now. Faltering against the Vikings and Lions (and the Browns in Week 15 for that matter) and finishing with a flurry against the Cardinals, Falcons and Packers might fool general manager Ryan Poles (and it might not), but it won’t fool Bears fans — most of them, anyway. This might be Eberflus’ last chance to change their minds. 

2. Fields’ performance against the Lions in his first game back after missing four games with a dislocated thumb, further muddled the decision Poles likely will have to make on his quarterback. 

What makes it a tough call is that there is no assurance any quarterback can max out with the Bears, whether it’s USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye or Fields. What evidence is there that the Bears know how to develop a quarterback — or can find the right coaching staff to do the job? Jalen Hurts or Brock Purdy would be a work-in-progress in this offense.

The Bears seem headed toward an all-or-nothing solution: starting over with a new quarterback and coaching staff; or keeping Fields in a third season in Getsy’s offense, with an improved supporting cast that includes two top-10 draft picks — to give Fields the greater margin-for-error he needs. 

3. Don’t discount the latter option a better solution. With the current state of quarterbacking in the NFL, a well-rounded offense is trumping the “it” factor as a path to success. Joe Burrow struggled this season before suffering a season-ending injury. Josh Allen struggled enough that the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey.

Even Patrick Mahomes, the current gold standard, is noticeably down compared to last season — from 105.3 to 93.8 in passer rating; 8.1 to 6.9 in yards per attempt; 308.8 to 261.9 in yards per game. He’s the best thing going, but he’s not a miracle worker.

The 49ers’ Purdy leads the NFL in passer rating (115.1). But in three games without wide receiver Deebo Samuel — two of them with left tackle Trent Williams out and/or running back Christian McCaffrey banged up — Purdy’s passer rating was 77.9 (three touchdowns, five interceptions).

4. Getsy’s conservative approach with the lead in the fourth quarter against the Lions — 13 rushes, five drop-backs — netted two field goals and should have been a winner, but instead will come under fire after the defensive implosion rendered the two field goals insufficient. 

On the five drop backs, Fields threw incomplete for Darnell Mooney, but was bailed out by a penalty; scrambled for five yards; was sacked; scrambled for 29 yards; and just missed Tyler Scott on a third-and-nine deep ball. 

It still should have been enough, but this remains a problem: Fields has a 106.0 passer rating in the first three quarters this season — fifth in the NFL. He has a 60.0 passer rating in the fourth quarter — 35th among quarterbacks with 25 or more attempts. 

5. Defensive end Montez Sweat played just 39 of 62 snaps (63%) against the Lions. It seems odd to splurge on a pass rusher (the Bears signed Sweat to a four-year, $98 million contract) and only play him 63% of the snaps. But Eberflus defended it, saying the rotation keeps all his lineman fresh. 

That might be, but it flies in the face of conventional NFL wisdom. The top pass rushers all play more — Myles Garrett (81%), T.J. Watt (86%), Danielle Hunter (88%), Khalil Mack (79%), Maxx Crosby (98%) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (85%). 

6. The Bears’ difficulty in third quarter this season — outscored 62-32 coming into the Lions game, including 34-3 on the road — is seen as an indictment of Eberflus’ coaching staff. But the Bears dominated the third quarter against the Lions, outscoring them 10-0 and out-gaining them 126-44, with two takeaways. That was another sign of progress that was lost in the fourth-quarter debacle.

Cairo Santos kicked a 53-yard field goal, and the Bears even got a break when rookie Brian Branch was called illegal contact away from the play on a third-and-15 incompletion to keep that drive alive.

7. Quick Hits: If Jaylon Johnson wants to make the All-Pro team, he has to get both of those interceptions he missed out on Sunday against the Lions. … The Bears’ offensive line of Braxton Jones, Teven Jenkins, Lucas Patrick, Nate Davis and Darnell Wright was their eighth different starting combination in 11 games and 17th different in 28 games under Eberflus … Teams that have three interceptions and throw none were 9-0 this season before Sunday, with an average margin of 15.0 points. The Bears lost by five. 

8. Jim Harbaugh Watch: With Harbaugh serving the second game of a three-game suspension, No. 3 Michigan (11-0) had its biggest scare of the season, beating Maryland 31-24 on the road. Michigan is now 36-3 under Harbaugh in the last three seasons. 

9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Lions running back David Montgomery had 12 carries for 76 yards, including the game-winning one-yard touchdown with 29 seconds left in a 31-26 victory over the Bears. 

With rushes of 12, 10 and one yard and receptions of 13 and nine yards, Montgomery accounted for 45 of the Lions 73 yards on the winning drive. 

He joins Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert as a three-time winner this season. 

10. Bear-ometer: 6-11 — at Vikings (L); vs. Lions (W); at Browns (L); vs. Cardinals (W); vs. Falcons (W); at Packers (L).