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As the season winds down, it’s a good time to circle back and see how those Connor Bedard predictions turned out.
It felt like everyone had an opinion back in the pre-season about how many points Bedard would score as a rookie and I for one, undervalued him. I projected Bedard for around 70 points over a full season, but Bedard is scoring at almost a point per game pace on a Chicago Blackhawks squad that doesn’t have much talent at all to surround him with.
Chicago is dead last in goals for in the NHL and every other Blackhawks skater besides Bedard and Philipp Kurashev has less than 40 points. It’s remarkable what Bedard has been able to accomplish with this roster.
That brings up an interesting question of where to draft Bedard next season in one-year leagues. I had him between 45-50 heading into this season but I’d probably bump him up to the mid-30s if I was comprising my rankings right now. The Blackhawks have a good chunk of cap space this summer and I think they’ll add at least one or two more talented pieces to play with Bedard.
The best is yet to come.
1. There’s been no shortage of hype surrounding Ivan Fedotov since he joined the Philadelphia Flyers recently, and it’s not hard to see why. A six-foot-seven goaltender on a John Tortorella-coached team certainly makes for an intriguing option in fantasy, especially on a Flyers squad that has an immediate need in net and is going to get better. Fedotov could be a major Zero G candidate as early as next season.
2. There’s a new captain of the “better at hockey than fantasy hockey” team. Charlie McAvoy has now been held off the scoresheet in 14 of his past 16 games and he may not hit 50 points this season. The Boston Bruins defender is averaging almost 25 minutes per night and is on power play one, so you’d think his offensive numbers should be a little stronger than what they are. McAvoy does a lot of other things well and is a rock for the Bruins on the blue line, but I think he’s always a little overrated in fantasy.
3. If you’ve already turned your attention to next year, don’t forget about Spencer Knight. He’s had a strong season in the AHL and there’s a decent chance he’ll be Sergei Bobrovsky’s backup in 2024-25. We saw how much success Anthony Stolarz had this season playing in a limited capacity and with Bobrovsky turning 36 in September, it’s likely the Florida Panthers will want to limit his workload. Knight could end up being a great Zero G candidate.
4. It’s safe to say you can trust Bobrovsky again. There was a time when there were a lot of inconsistencies and ups and downs in his game, but based on last year’s playoff run and the fact he’s sitting at a .913 for the second time in three seasons, Bobrovsky is probably going to jump up draft boards in 2024-25. It doesn’t hurt that the Panthers are one of the league’s best teams either.
5. That’s 12 points in 15 games for Vladimir Tarasenko since joining the Panthers. Tarasenko’s production goes up when he joins a stronger team, shocking I know, but I do think he is one of those players that is more engaged and competitive when the games mean something. For instance, he’s averaged 0.39 goals per game for his career during the regular season and that number jumps to 0.45 in the post-season. I’d be more likely to draft Tarasenko next season if he signs with a contender this summer.
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6. It looks like Erik Karlsson is going to finish with around half as many points as he put up last year, even with a very productive last three games. We all knew Karlsson would regress from his incredible 2022-23 campaign, but I don’t think many thought he would fall off this much. He’ll be a major buy low in next year’s drafts, but it’s going to take a lot of faith to believe Karlsson can make a significant fantasy impact again.
7. Tomas Hertl is skating again and could be ready to return soon. Vegas had a terrible schedule this week, but next week it’s great with four games on Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Sunday. Hertl could be a difference-maker in a championship matchup next week.
8. With Pavel Mintyukov injured, Olen Zellweger has stepped up and notched four points in three games for the Ducks. Zellweger is up on the top pair with Cam Fowler and is starting to get a bump in minutes. There’s going to a real battle next season between Fowler, Mintyukov and Zellweger for power play time with Mintyukov and Zellweger having plenty of long-term upside.
9. What a transformation for Trevor Moore. He’s gone from a fourth-liner in Toronto to a 30-goal scorer with the Los Angeles Kings. Moore will also likely finish with around 250 shots and more than a hit per game, and he is no longer going to slip through the cracks in future drafts. He’ll be on everyone’s radar.
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10. Jake Oettinger is back. After some struggles and inconsistencies, Oettinger has sorted out his game when it matters most. He’s 6-0-0 in his past six starts with a .955 save percentage and owns back-to-back shutouts. One of those shutouts came against the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday and Oettinger is also likely to face the Colorado Avalanche on Sunday. That left some wondering if he was even worth using this week given the tough opponents. Oettinger appears to be up to the task, though.
11. Justus Annunen continues to impress. He has quality starts in eight of his 12 appearances this year and a .931 save percentage on the season. Alexandar Georgiev’s save percentage has really dipped this year, so watch for Annunen to get a few more starts as the Colorado Avalanche close out their season.
12. Brandon Saad has now scored in six of his past eight games. I mentioned him last week because of his good schedule this week and Saad remains a solid streamer for a fantasy squad in need of offence in a short-term scenario.
13. For all the attention Jonathan Huberdeau’s struggles have gotten, I think the most fantasy impactful player for the Calgary Flames in that deal is going to be MacKenzie Weegar. With 19 goals and pushing 200 shots, hits and blocks, Weegar does everything well and there’s an argument to be made that he’s the defender that’s improved his value the most this season.
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14. New York Islanders head coach Patrick Roy has reunited Mat Barzal and Bo Horvat, and the pair has combined for eight points in the past four games. It’s probably the main reason the Isles are back in a playoff spot.
15. Semyon Varlamov has now started four of the past six games for the Isles, picking a big shutout Saturday. With New York having everything to play for, Varlamov could be a good add down the stretch as Roy seems comfortable turning to him.
16. Mattias Ekholm has found a gear offensively that I’m not sure many thought he had. He has 15 points in his past 11 games, recording 35 per cent of his points this season over that stretch. Ekholm has eclipsed 40 points for only the second time in his career, as he’s typically only worth rostering for hits and blocks.
Maybe we should have seen this coming, though, for a couple of reasons. Ekholm scored 14 points in 21 games when he came over to the Edmonton Oilers in a trade last year. Those aren’t crazy numbers by any means, but it’s a 55-point pace that far exceeds anything Ekholm has done offensively in his career. The other thing is this Oilers team is easily the most offensively gifted Ekholm has ever played for. Getting big minutes, paired with Evan Bouchard and playing with the likes of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman regularly, you can’t help but stumble into points.
I don’t necessarily think the pace Ekholm has been on for the past 11 games is something he can sustain, but it seems reasonable that he should be able to push 50 for points next year with similar deployment. Ekholm is no longer someone you should just be looking at as a depth option in a multi-cat format. There’s a lot more to his game now.
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17. There was no better buy-low player this year than Alex Ovechkin. After a very slow start, Ovechkin has now scored at a 57-goal pace over his past 30 games and is only 43 behind Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record. If Ovechkin can tally a few more before this season concludes, he’ll have a realistic chance to break the mark as early as next year.
18. Tough luck for those rostering Joey Daccord this week. Philipp Grubauer started all three games for the Seattle Kraken, breaking somewhat of a 50/50 rotation they had going of late. Seattle had San Jose and Anaheim on the schedule as well, making it especially painful that Daccord didn’t get one of those games. It’s a good reminder that goalie rotations can change in an instant without warning.
19. It’s championship week in most leagues next week, so maximizing the schedule will be extra critical. The Boston Bruins have the worst schedule by far, playing only twice, with games on the two busiest nights of the week. Jeremy Swayman should get the Carolina game on Tuesday, meaning he could be a drop after that in one-year leagues if you don’t play beyond next week. That should be Swayman’s last start and you could utilize his roster spot for something else for the final five days of the week.
I like Calgary’s schedule a lot. They have four games, including Anaheim, San Jose and Arizona, making Dustin Wolf an intriguing option.
The Toronto Maple Leafs also play four times and I wonder if it makes sense to look at Matthew Knies or Pontus Holmberg. Both are playing with William Nylander and should get some favourable line matchups. Knies has been productive lately and has sneaky value in leagues that count hits and PIMs.
20. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Joel Hofer has now lost twice to the San Jose Sharks in a week, in what seemed to be great streaming scenarios. I’m sure the Sharks cost a number of fantasy teams a shot at a championship with those wins.
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