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Israel appears to have ramped up an assassination campaign against key Iranian generals and commanders based abroad in recent months.
Suspected Israeli air strikes have killed at least 18 members of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of Iran’s armed forces, in Syria since December.
In the latest attack, seven IRGC members, including two generals, were killed in an air strike on the Iranian Embassy’s compound in Damascus on April 1.
The targeted killings, experts say, are aimed at blunting Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” its network of regional proxies and militant groups against Israel and the West.
Observers say the strategy is likely to disrupt the network’s activities in the short-term, although they warned that the tactic is risky and could backfire in the long-term.
“Iran’s regional network is glued together through personal, not institutional, connections,” said Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
“Eliminating commanders with decades of experience in the region and a wide network of personal contacts certainly weakens Iran’s regional deterrence,” he added.
‘Risky Strategy’
Israel’s suspected targeting of IRGC members has intensified since the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip in October.
In response to Israel’s deadly offensive, Iranian-backed militant groups have attacked Israeli and U.S. targets across the Middle East in a show of support for Palestinians.
The conflict was triggered by an unprecedented multi-pronged attack on Israel by Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union.
At least three key figures of the IRGC’s overseas arm, the Quds Force, have been killed in suspected Israeli attacks in recent months.
Razi Mousavi, a top Quds Force commander, was killed in an air strike near Damascus on December 25. He was responsible for coordinating Iran’s military activities in Syria and Lebanon.
Among those killed in the April 1 strike was General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Quds Force’s top commander in Syria and Lebanon. Zahedi’s deputy, General Mohammad Hadi Haj Rahimi, was also slain in the attack.
“There’s always doubt as to whether these targeted assassinations work,” said Michael Horowitz, the head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.
“These decapitation strikes, when done ‘at scale,’ can have an impact in the short- to medium-term on Iran’s ability to coordinate with its proxies, smuggle weapons into Syria and Iraq, and threaten Israel.”
The attack on the Iranian Embassy’s compound in Damascus came just hours after a drone strike hit a naval base in the southern Israeli port of Eilat in the Red Sea. The strike damaged a building and nearly hit an Israeli warship.
The attack was claimed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group that includes Iran-backed militias.
“My take is that Israel wanted to show it has escalation dominance over Iran, and that Iran cannot escalate without paying a price,” said Horowitz.
“Generally, when an actor wants to up the ante, they raise the stake not by one notch but by two,” he added. “Of course, this is a risky strategy. The question is whether this will work, and Iran backs down in the longer term, or [if it] actually backfires.”
‘Not Safe Anywhere’
The recent spate of assassinations are not the first time that key Iranian military commanders have been targeted and killed abroad.
In 2020, Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani was killed in a U.S. air strike in Iraq. He was seen as the architect of the “axis of resistance” and held great influence over its members, which includes Hamas, Lebanon’s Hizballah, Iraqi Shi’ite militias, Yemen’s Huthi rebels, and the Syria government.
Soleimani’s death led to the axis becoming more decentralized and some groups, particularly Shi’ite militias in Iraq, gaining some autonomy. But it did not significantly disrupt the Quds Force or break up the axis.
Hours after Soleimani’s death, his deputy, Esmail Qaani, was promoted.
Vaez said the death of Zahedi and his deputy, however, will likely be more disruptive.
“Unlike in the case of Soleimani’s killing, there is no right-hand man to immediately step in and fill the void,” Vaez said. “If Iran fails to restore deterrence against Israel, no Iranian military official will be safe anywhere in Syria or even Lebanon anymore.”
Iranian Retaliation
Iran has described the strike on its embassy compound as an attack on Iranian territory. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on April 10 that Israel “must be punished and will be punished.”
Iran’s threat to retaliate against Israel has put the region, already tense from the Gaza war, on edge.
In the past, Iran has refrained from directly hitting Israel, instead opting to increase its support for the “axis of resistance” to take the fight to Israel. But the brazen attack in Damascus may compel Iran to take direct action, experts said.
Even so, Iran is likely to avoid a major escalation with Israel, a scenario that could trigger a full-blown war between the foes and likely drag in the United States, experts said.
Recent reports suggested Iran could strike the Golan Heights — Syrian territory occupied by Israeli forces since 1967 — because it believes it carries less risk of Israeli retaliation. But experts say there is no guarantee of that.
“Israel has responded to attacks from Syria, for instance, that landed in the Golan, so I wouldn’t exclude an Israeli response regardless,” Horowitz said.
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