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Small SUVs are providing a window for
zippy turbo-threes, while V-8 and V-6 penetration slides as better
four-cylinders arrive.
Three-cylinder automotive engines aren’t about
to dominate the US market. But over the past few years, the peppy
powertrain has steadily nibbled share from other engine types.
Every quarter since 1Q 2019 has seen an
increase in three-cylinder penetration into the US powertrain
portfolio, according to S&P Global Mobility personal
registration data. At the end of 2Q 2023, the rate had climbed to
5.6%; for the partial third quarter, it has hit 6.2%.
For perspective, the three-cylinder share was
essentially zero as recently as 2019, said Tom Libby, associate
director for loyalty solutions and industry analysis at S&P
Global Mobility.
Source:
S&P Global Mobility retail registration data
*Q3 2023
includes July only ©2023 S&P Global Mobility
Notably, the shift hasn’t cut into the share of
the market-leading four-cylinder powertrain, which has maintained
more than half the market, with the share increasing to 57.2
percent in the past year.
Since 2022, six-cylinder engines have dropped
from 28.6 percent to 26.8 percent share. And eight-cylinder engines
have dipped from 11.5 percent to 10.9 percent. (Note: Shares by
engine size – number of cylinders – refers to all possible engine
sizes for light-duty vehicles, but niche engines like V-10 and V-12
are not displayed.)
The numbers might suggest that three-cylinders
are gaining at the expense of six- and eight-cylinder engines. But
Libby says it’s not that simple. Three-cylinder engines have risen
with the rising popularity of subcompact-plus utility vehicles such
as the Buick Encore GX, Ford Bronco Sport, and Chevrolet
Trailblazer.
Consumers are moving to those models to get a
slightly bigger vehicle than subcompact utilities like the
Chevrolet Trax or the original Encore, Libby says. The
subcompact-plus utility segment “appears to have hit a sweet spot
in terms of space,” he says.
S&P Global Mobility data shows US new
personal registrations of 589,026 for subcompact-plus utility
models through July, compared to just 123,033 personal
registrations for subcompact utilities.
Consumers moving up from a subcompact utility
face a modest bump in monthly payments, from an average of about
$422 for a subcompact, with a $40 increase to get into a
subcompact-plus, according to AutoCreditInsight data supplied to
S&P Global Mobility by TransUnion. Moving up further to a
compact utility would entail about $ 100 per month in incremental
payment from a subcompact-plus.
However, pandemic-related inventory shortages
have made small-vehicle sales over the past three years “very
unusual,” Libby cautions. “Frankly, it’s impossible to tell what
normal consumer behavior is because of the inventories.”
The dip in eight-cylinder powertrains,
meanwhile, comes mainly from advances in six-cylinder engines,
according to Libby: “In general, the manufacturers are making sixes
that have just as much power as an eight, and much better fuel
economy.”
LIGHT VEHICLE POWERTRAIN
FORECASTS
THE LOOMING ICE SUPPLIER
SHAKEOUT
VEHICLE POWERTRAIN
TRENDS
This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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