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England finish bottom of the ladder and Afghanistan make the World Cup finals.
If someone was to write a script for the ICC World Cup, you wouldn’t expect that to be a likely scenario ahead of the final six matches. But that’s the reality.
The defending champions currently sit last on the ladder with two games in hand while Afghanistan are sixth but still in with a sniff.
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Australia’s finals hopes are secured but whoever finishes fourth could throw up a challenge as to who plays in the final.
The remaining games from the World Cup are England v Netherlands on Wednesday night, New Zealand v Sri Lanka on Thursday followed by Afghanistan v South Africa, Australia v Bangladesh, England v Pakistan and India v Netherlands on Sunday to round off the opening stages.
Who can still make it?
India, South Africa and Australia are all locked in the top four and their finals games are sorted too.
The host nation are first on 16 points while the Proteas and Aussies are both on 12. Australia could leapfrog South Africa into second if they defeat Bangladesh and Afghanistan spring an upset but either way they’ll play each other in the semi-final.
New Zealand are currently fourth, equal with Pakistan and Afghanistan, meaning all three sides are still in contention.
The Black Caps’ net run rate of 0.398 is the strongest of the three.
Which matches decide who goes through?
When New Zealand plays against Sri Lanka on Thursday, the finals series could become a sure thing there and then.
A win over the Lankans should be enough because Pakistan would need a massive victory over England to have any hope of making it through.
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Afghanistan’s appalling -0.338 net run rate is working against them and they’ll need to win against South Africa and hope New Zealand and Pakistan lose.
Coach Jonathan Trott described his side’s agonising loss to Australia after Glenn Maxwell’s double century as a “bitter pill to swallow” but is fully focused on defeating the Proteas.
“The guys have been resilient, we lost the New Zealand game pretty heavily and we came back and won the next game. We lost the India game pretty heavily, we came back and beat England so there’s evidence of us coming back,” he said.
“This will be a difficult one to swallow, the good thing in a way is we play quite soon, we travel, practice and then play, it’s only two days in between games for us so there’s no time to mope around, we’ve got to pick ourselves up and learn from the experience.
“… It’s a bitter pill to swallow, it’d be really nice to be sitting here with 10 points but hopefully that’s after the South Africa game.”
Who finishes on the bottom?
England have two games remaining and they could be the biggest of their tournament.
Having come into the World Cup as title holders, they’ve been embarrassing and sit outright 10th with only two points.
The Netherlands are ahead of them by two points but also have the superior net run rate of -1.398 compared to England’s -1.504.
Wednesday night’s clash between the two sides is vital.
England fielding coach Carl Hopkinson was adamant the game isn’t a dead rubber with spots in the Champions Trophy still up for grabs as the top eight from the World Cup qualify.
“I don’t think there is ever a dead rubber when you play for England … I think the lads are completely up for it, we’ve got two games that we need to win to qualify for the Champions Trophy so I think that’s there for everybody to see,” he said.
The England assistant went on to explain the side’s poor showing has been down to an inability to capitalise in key moments.
“Cricket can be a game about executing under pressure, everybody knows that and I think this team has been well known for doing that really, really well,” he said.
“It’s an incredibly skilful team and talented team but in key moments in certain situations we haven’t executed under pressure like we normally do.”
Netherlands assistant coach Ryan van Niekerk downplayed England’s vulnerability ahead of his side’s chance of staying in the hunt for the Champions Trophy.
“England are world champions so I think they would do what’s necessary, they’ve prepared just as much,” he said.
“In South Africa where I’m from there’s a famous saying of ‘never underestimate a wounded buffalo’ so I think we sit in a position that England’s one of the best teams in the world and irrespective of how they’re playing they can produce incredible performances at any moment so that’s what we’re preparing for, the best England possible.”
The Netherlands’ final game against India will be very tough to win but England will also have a challenging fixture against Pakistan.
Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are also on four points but have better net run rates.
How do the knockout stages work?
The first placed team, India, will play whoever finishes fourth out of New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
As second and third placed sides, Australia and New Zealand will also face off.
The winner of both semi-finals will play in the World Cup final while the losers are knocked out.
The first semi will be played on November 15 followed by the other fixture the next day.
Ahmedabad will host the final on November 19.
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