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The field for Euro 2024 is beginning to take shape and is about to come into full view.
Eight countries have qualified for the European Championship to be hosted by Germany, and 12 more teams for next summer’s 24-nation tournament will be determined when the group stage of the qualifiers wraps up between Nov. 16-20.
Here’s what you need to know about the final two matchdays of the Euro 2024 qualifiers.
How does Euro 2024 qualifying work?
The qualifying process began in March, when 53 European nations were divided into 10 round-robin groups where each team plays each other home and away.
The top two nations in each group will clinch a berth for next year’s European Championship. Germany has automatically qualified as the host country.
How do the playoffs work?
The final three spots will be determined via the playoffs, which will be held in March 2024.
Twelve nations will get a second chance to qualify via the playoffs based on their performance in the 2022–23 UEFA Nations League. Those nations will be divided into three separate paths — each containing four teams — with one country from each path qualifying for Euro 2024.
The three playoff paths will each feature two single-leg semifinals and one single-leg final.
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Who’s already qualified and been eliminated?
The following nations have clinched a berth at Euro 2024: Spain and Scotland (both Group A), France (Group B), England (Group C), Turkey (Group D), Belgium and Austria (both Group F), and Portugal (Group J).
Countries eliminated and ineligible to qualify via the playoffs: Cyprus (Group A), Gibraltar (Group B), North Macedonia and Malta (both Group C), Latvia (Group D), Sweden (Group F), Lithuania (Group G), Northern Ireland and San Marino (both Group H), Belarus and Andorra (both Group I), and Liechtenstein (Group J).
Who’s going to the playoffs?
Georgia (Group A), Finland (Group H) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (Group J) are already through to the playoffs.
These teams could still automatically qualify but are also ensured of at least going to the playoffs: The Netherlands and Greece (both Group B), Italy (Group C), Croatia (Group D), Serbia (Group D), Denmark and Kazakhstan (both Group H), Israel (Group I) and Luxembourg (Group J).
Marquee game: Ukraine vs. Italy
Ukraine hosts Italy on Nov. 20 in a match that will determine which nation qualifies for Euro 2024.
England has already advanced and tops Group C, 16 points ahead of Ukraine (13) and Italy (10). However, the Italians have a game in hand on the Ukrainians, whom they will play on Nov. 17 in Rome vs. North Macedonia.
If the Italians win that match, they will just need to draw against Ukraine to qualify for Euro 2024 — the Azzurri have the tiebreaker, based on their 2-1 win over Ukraine in Milan in September. A loss to North Macedonia would force Italy into a must-win situation vs. Ukraine.
But even if the Italians don’t get the results they need in each of their two games, they are still guaranteed a playoff spot and could still qualify for Euro 2024, where they would attempt to defend their European title. Midfielder Davide Frattesi (on loan to Inter Milan) has been a revelation for Italy during the qualifiers, scoring a team-high three goals, including a brace in the win over Ukraine.
Ukraine has to finish ahead of Italy in the Group C table, as it can’t qualify for the playoffs.
Croatia in a similar boat as Italy
Like Italy, 2022 FIFA World Cup semi-finalist Croatia sits second in Group D, tied on 10 points with Wales behind leader Turkey (16 points).
Wales has the tiebreaker by virtue of taking four out of six points in two matches against Croatia. Led by top scorer and Fulham winger Harry Wilson (three goals in qualifiers), Wales hosts Armenia on Nov. 18 before facing Turkey (who has already qualified) three days later. So, the Welsh control their fate and will be incentivized by the fact they won’t get a second chance through the playoffs.
Croatia is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, which means they can still afford to drop points in their next two games — away to Latvia (already eliminated) and at home against Armenia — and still have the opportunity to advance to the tournament next summer.
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Group B: The Netherlands or Greece
With a perfect 6-0 record, France is off to Germany next year. But who’ll join it from Group B?
The Netherlands and Greece are tied for second on 12 points, but Greece has played an extra game. That means the Dutch sit in the driver’s seat ahead of their home outing vs. Ireland (Nov. 18) and their road contest vs. Gibraltar (Nov. 21).
Greece’s final match of the group stage is at home vs. France, so the Greeks, led by top scorer Georgios Masouras (five goals in the qualifiers), would realistically have to beat the French and hope that the Netherlands can only collect two points from their two contests.
However, both the Netherlands and Greece are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, so neither can be eliminated from contention this month.
Group E is wide open
Four points separate Group E leader Albania (13) and fourth-place Moldova (9), with Czech Republic (11) and Poland (10) sandwiched between them. None of them can qualify via the playoffs.
Albania looks poised to qualify for its second European Championship after making its tournament debut in 2016 in France. The Albanians, managed by former Brazilian international Sylvinho, have two very winnable games remaining, away to Moldova and at home to Faroe Islands.
All four teams remain in contention, although Poland (and last-place Faroe Islands) have played one extra game. The Poles face a tough test against the visiting Czech Republic on Nov. 17, a game it realistically has to win to have any chance of qualifying for Euro 2024.
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Both spots to play for in Group G, H and I
Three nations remain alive in Group G: Hungary (14 points), Serbia (13) and Montenegro (eight), while the Serbs have the bonus of being guaranteed a playoff spot. Montenegro does have a game in hand on Serbia, but its final group stage match is at home against Hungary on Nov. 19, the same day Serbia hosts already-eliminated Bulgaria.
Over in Group H, Slovenia and Denmark are tied for first (19 points), followed by Kazakhstan (15), and all three nations have two matches left. Both Denmark and Kazakhstan are guaranteed spots in the playoffs, which puts added pressure on Slovenia, who’ll visit the Danes on Nov. 17 before closing out the group stage at home three days later vs. Kazakhstan
Group I also sees four teams still alive: Romania (16 points), Switzerland (15), Israel (11) and Kosovo (10). Only Israel could qualify for Euro 2024 through the playoffs. Israel and Switzerland have played one fewer game than the other two nations and will make that up when they square off on Wednesday. A win by the Swiss would see them leapfrog Romania into first place and give them the edge as the four teams prepare to play their last two matches.
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Slovakia on the brink of qualifying in Group J
With eight wins from eight games, Portugal has already wrapped up first place in Group J and has qualified for Euro 2024.
It’ll be joined either by Slovakia (16 points), Luxembourg (11 points) or Iceland (10 points). All three nations have two games remaining, but it’s Slovakia who controls its own fate as it needs just one win to clinch a Euro berth. The Slovaks host Iceland (Nov. 16) before playing away to Bosnia and Herzegovina (Nov. 19).
John Molinaro is one of the leading soccer journalists in Canada, having covered the game for over 20 years for several media outlets, including Sportsnet, CBC Sports and Sun Media. He is currently the editor-in-chief of TFC Republic, a website dedicated to in-depth coverage of Toronto FC and Canadian soccer.
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