Trade targets Blue Jays should consider this off-season

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With significant holes in their lineup, and ambitions of contending in 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in the next few months. 

Some of that roster building may come through free agency, but a relatively weak class means it’s likely they’ll be active in the trade market as well. In each of the last two off-seasons the team has made a significant move for a starting position player, grabbing Matt Chapman prior to the 2022 campaign, and Daulton Varsho before last season started.

Considering the club’s pitching staff is already looking viable, it’s probable that they’ll go that route again to bolster a position player group in need of reinforcements.

Below are some trade  options for the Blue Jays — ranging from stars to underappreciated guys capable of playing important roles:

The Big Fish: Juan Soto

Age: 25

Position: Corner OF

Bats: Left

2023 stats: 275/.410/.519 in 708 PA with 35 HR and 12 SB for 5.5 fWAR

Years of team control: 1

Projected arbitration salary: $33 million

How the fit works: If you need a starting corner outfielder and an offensive boost, it’s hard to conceive of a better solution to those issues than acquiring Soto.

There has been plenty of buzz about the superstar becoming available — and if the San Diego Padres are going to trade him, failing to check in would be negligence on the Blue Jays’ part.

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Bringing Soto aboard wouldn’t be an easy feat by any means. The outfielder will command a hefty salary in arbitration — and cost plenty in a trade — even though he’ll be a free agent following the 2024 season.

That means trading for him would put enormous pressure on Toronto to perform next season, or sign him to a megadeal. Trading for Soto, having a disappointing 2024, and watching him walk, would be a disastrous outcome. 

Depending on the type of payroll the Blue Jays are willing to carry, his salary might also make it difficult to fill other holes on the roster.

None of that means this isn’t a path worth exploring. Soto is one of the best players MLB has to offer, after all — but there are plenty of barriers to acquiring him.

The next defensive maestro: Willy Adames

Age: 28

Position: SS

Bats: Right

2023 stats: 217/.310/.407 in 638 PA with 24 HR and 5 SB for 3.4 fWAR

Years of team control: 1

Projected arbitration salary: $12.4 million

How the fit works: With Matt Chapman hitting the open market, the Blue Jays could opt to bring another elite defender into their infield.

Even though the Milwaukee Brewers are coming off a 92-70 season it looks like they’re considering trading players close to free agency and resetting their roster. If that’s the case, Adames is an appealing option for teams like the Blue Jays in need of infield help.

While the 28-year-old is coming off the worst offensive season of his career, he seems to have had a snake-bitten 2023 as his wOBA (.311) was well below his expected wOBA (.341). He didn’t lose any thump last season with an xwOBA on contact of .415 that closely matched his numbers from 2022 (.414) and 2021 (.413).

Adames brings an impressive combination of power and defensive ability. He’s hit at least 24 home runs in each of the last three seasons, and ranks 24th in the majors in fWAR during that time (11.4).

The slight hitch with the veteran is that all but eight of his starts at the MLB level have come at shortstop — but the Blue Jays had plenty of success moving an accomplished shortstop to second with Marcus Semien in 2021. They could expect similar defensive success with Adames whether they shifted him to the keystone or the hot corner. 

The bounce-back candidate: Jonathan India

Age: 26

Position: 2B

Bats: Right

2023 stats: .244/.338/.407 in 529 PA with 17 HR and 14 SB — good for 1.2 fWAR

Years of team control: 3

Projected arbitration salary: $3.7 million

How the fit works: India has regressed since winning National League Rookie of the Year in 2021, but it’s possible there’s more in his bat than he’s shown lately.

The 26-year-old set career highs in max exit velocity (111.4 mph) and average exit velocity (89.5 mph) in 2023, but a declining pull rate helped prevent that from leading to a power surge.

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Part of what makes the former fifth-overall pick appealing is that he’s got a strong offensive floor. India has consistently run above-average strikeout and walk rates, leading to a career OBP of .350 — a number that ranks 39th among 226 qualified hitters since he broke into the league.

So far his excellent plate discipline and approximately average pop have made him a solid MLB hitter. His defence is a concern, so he needs to take a step forward to be a starter who can be counted on, but if the Blue Jays think they can coax his 2021 form out he could be a low-cost medium-term solution at second base who’s likely to be available for a relatively modest return.

That may not sound particularly exciting, but as a smaller trade among larger offseason transactions, adding India has potential to be a steal.

The outfield power injection: Mike Yastrzemski 

Age: 33

Position: Corner OF with CF utility

Bats: Left

2023 stats: .233/.330/.445 in 381 PA with 15 HR and 2 SB — good for 1.8 fWAR

Years of team control: 2

Projected arbitration salary: $7.3 million

How the fit works: Coming off a 79-83 record, the San Francisco Giants would be wise to consider shipping off some veterans, and Yastrzemski would have appeal around the majors.

The 33-year-old is primarily used as a platoon guy these days, but there’s no doubt he brings the kind of power Toronto was lacking last season. Since cracking the majors in 2019 the outfielder’s isolated slugging has only dipped below .200 once, and it’s always remained well above league-average.

Of the 12 Blue Jays hitters that took at least 100 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers in 2023 only one (Brandon Belt) topped the .831 OPS Yastrzemski managed against them.

He could also serve as a backup centre fielder to Varsho as he made 44 starts at that position last season and has consistently graded out as an above-average outfielder by a number of metrics.

Because of his status as a platoon player, his age, and his relatively short period of team control Yastrzemski wouldn’t cost too much, but he could be an asset to the Blue Jays offensively and defensively.

The unexpected homecoming: Edward Olivares

Age: 27

Position: Corner OF

Bats: Right

2023 stats: .261/.317/.452 in 385 PA with 12 HR and 11 SB — good for 0.4 fWAR

Years of team control: 3

Projected arbitration salary: $1.8 million

How it works: This is your off-the-board pick, but it could make sense for the Blue Jays to bring home a player they signed out of Venezuela back in 2014.

Olivares has been trying to establish himself as an MLB player for a few years now. He got his best chance with the Kansas City Royals in 2023 and flashed some impressive abilities. The 27-year-old showed himself to be difficult to strike out (16.6 K%) while flashing solid power (.452 SLG) and impressive speed (82nd percentile Sprint Speed).

His overall value was sunk by his defensive efforts, but his combination of speed and arm strength (90th percentile) indicate he should be able to hold his own in left.

The Blue Jays aren’t at a point in their competitive cycle where they can turn over their left-field spot to a player as unproven as Olivares, but he could be a right-handed platoon bat there and a player who can bring some extra-base ability off the bench. He also has the potential to be significantly more than that if the team ever deals with outfield injuries.

Kansas City is far enough from contention that it needs to consider dealing anyone approaching their late twenties or entering their arbitration years. If they don’t see late-bloomer potential in Olivares, he could be an interesting addition.

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