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Pre-election giveaways are rarely subtle – and this was no exception.
The Chancellor’s autumn statement, politically, had one aim – to frame the Tories as being on the side of the British public.
With the Tories’ favourability in tatters and Labour soaring high in the polls, Jeremy Hunt used his flurry of announcements to make voters wonder whether voting Tory would be such a bad thing after all.
From January, millions of workers will see a two pence cut in National Insurance contributions, there will be breaks for businesses and the self-employed and the National Living Wage is to rise.
Pensions are set to rise in line with inflation – with the fabled trip-lock left alone for now.
Scotland’s whisky sector also got a special mention as the Chancellor agreed to freeze alcohol duty until the summer.
There are two stands to this populist pre-election proposal – an attempt to turn the tide on what has been a gruelling couple of years for the Tories’ support with the public as well as back Labour into a corner.
Read more:
Autumn statement: Jeremy Hunt cuts National Insurance bills as growth hits ‘dead end’
In reality, it will take much more than giving workers a bit more money in their pockets to sway an election already arguably out of reach. Averting a disaster for Labour, not impossible, Rishi Sunak will be handing over the keys of Downing Street to Sir Keir Starmer next year.
But politically, the autumn statement was targeted at core Conservative voters – workers, businesses and pensioners – as the Chancellor set out an extremely rosy picture of Britain’s finances under the Tories.
Mr Hunt claimed that “after a global pandemic and energy crisis, we have taken difficult decisions to put our economy back on track”.
He claimed the Conservatives “have supported families with rising bills, cut borrowing and halved inflation”.
The Chancellor claimed his government has avoided a recession and “rather than falling as predicted, real incomes have risen”.
Under Mr Hunt’s predecessor, Kwasi Kwarteng, the Conservatives lost their long-held and crucial reputation for being the safest pair of hands to look after the economy – Liz Truss’s administration handed that mantle to Labour.
It wasn’t just the car-crash of a mini-budget where Britain’s worst prime minister and her calamity chancellor caused the unmitigated damage, but the pair’s failure to listen to business and the markets, and just about anyone who knew what they were talking about, by refusing to reverse the disaster until it was too late.
Labour’s Rachel Reeves, who is expected to become the UK’s next chancellor, wasted little time in taking a political punch at the Chancellor.
In her opening remarks in the Commons, Ms Reeves blasted “13 years of economic failure” in government from the Conservatives.
She added that “under the Conservatives, growth has hit a dead end” – in an attempt to reassert the narrative that the Tories’ days of being trusted on the economy are finished.
Cutting National Insurance contributions will give Labour a lot to think about as a government waiting in the wings.
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Unspun | The ever growing bill for Humza Yousaf’s council tax freeze
Despite Sir Keir’s conservative demeanour, Labour will want to spend more on public services than the current UK Government is willing to.
And they will likely have to raise taxes or find some cash from other means to do so – this is a politically toxic message for a party wanting to govern to give out to the public.
Both parties are setting out their economic argument for the next general election – the Tories are talking up the UK’s finances and being nice to workers, businesses and pensioners, while Labour are warning the Conservatives can no longer be trusted being left in charge.
But the autumn statement gives Shona Robison and the Scottish Government yet another financial headache.
Ms Robison, the Deputy First Minister and Finance Secretary, is fuming.
She vented her frustration by insisting that the autumn statement was “the worst-case scenario for Scotland’s finances”.
The DFM added that “Scotland needed a fair deal on investment for infrastructure, public services and pay deals”, warning that “the UK Government has let Scotland down on every count”.
This is not based on nothing, but there is also political capital in this for the Scottish Government.
Next month, Ms Robison will deliver her Scottish budget to Holyrood, already an unenviable task, where public finances will be under immense pressure.
SNP ministers will be in the firing line, apart from cuts that local authorities will be forced into making, so it is little surprise that the narrative from the Scottish Government is to point the finger at the Treasury for starving Scotland’s public services of much-needed money.
Come election time, voters will be looking at what each party’s priorities are.
Ms Robison is adamant that the Conservatives are choosing the wrong path for the country, still reeling from the cost-of-living crisis.
Quite bluntly, she accused the UK Government of having “failed to live up to the challenges we are facing as a nation, while not doing enough to help those on the lowest incomes”.
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Mr Hunt’s headline cut to National Insurance contributions will win praise from workers seeing more in their monthly pay, but Ms Robison has claimed the UK Government “has the wrong priorities at the wrong time, depriving public services of vital funding”.
This will be the message we hear from SNP ministers up until budget day next month and going into the next election.
It is hard to know which message will stick with voters come election day – but many people will see through the giveaways in the autumn statement for the political choice that they clearly are.
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