Another top starter off the market as Gray joins revamped Cardinals rotation
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After authoring a standout walk year, Sonny Gray parlayed his excellent 2023 performance into a hefty payday. The right-hander agreed to a contract with the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday, according to various reports.
The 34-year-old, who finished second in American League Cy Young voting, is leaving the Minnesota Twins to join a Cardinals rotation that has been retooled this winter through the additions of fellow right-handers Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson.
Here’s a closer look at the deal and what it means.
The deal: Gray and the Cardinals agreed to a three-year, $75 million contract.
The runners-up: The Cincinnati Reds were close to a deal with Gray, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The organization was familiar with the right-hander, who pitched for them from 2019-21, but will have to move on to other targets. Sheldon reports the club has interest in Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who could be available through trade.
The player: Gray has been an excellent starter for most of his 11-year career, evidenced by his 3.47 ERA and 3.57 FIP. He endured a rough 2018 campaign with the New York Yankees but has since rebounded nicely.
Gray was traded by the Reds to the Twins ahead of the 2022 season and enjoyed two stellar campaigns in Minneapolis. He posted a 2.90 ERA across 56 games and 303.2 innings for the Twins, striking out 300 and posting a 7.3 per cent walk rate.
The Smyrna, Tenn., native was an all-star in 2023, earning the third such nod of his career, and finished behind only Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole on the AL Cy Young ballot. Gray tied Toronto Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman with 5.3 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, the most among any AL pitchers (Cole registered 5.2 fWAR).
The fit: Gray certainly acts as a stabilizer atop a Cardinals rotation that ranked 26th in the majors in ERA (5.07), 27th in WHIP (1.49) and 28th in strikeouts (653). Gray, Lynn and Gibson will join incumbents Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz on a starting staff that certainly carries a stronger outlook heading into 2024.
Gray tossed 184 innings last year, his most since 2015. He’s 34 now and while his age was likely a consideration for the Cardinals ahead of their pursuit, Gray is better suited than some other starters to continue his effectiveness into his mid-to-late 30s. He doesn’t throw particularly hard but controls the strike zone well and does a good job of avoiding hard contact.
His sweeper was among one of MLB’s best pitches during the 2023 campaign, producing a Run Value of 19, according to Baseball Savant. That ranked 10th among any pitch in the big leagues and figures to carry over well as Gray gets older.
The market: MLB Trade Rumors predicted Gray would net a four-year contract worth $90 million. He did not beat that in both term and dollars.
The next domino: With Gray and Aaron Nola off the board, the market for front-end starting pitchers will likely centre on Yoshinobu Yamamoto and reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. Expect to hear Jordan Montgomery’s name gain steam on the hot stove, as well.
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