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The coldest night of the season is ahead—colder even than Monday morning’s 24-deg low which tied for the season’s coldest to date.
Monday’s 28-deg high ranks among the coldest 5% of November 27’s of the past 153 years. In fact, only 7 of the past 153 November 27’s have been colder than today’s 28—-a high temps which comes in 15-deg below normal.
By morning, temps will dip to 15-deg at O’Hare with a few colder inland temps dropping as low as 7 or 8-degrees. The last time O’Hare’s official city low temp will have been as cold as tonight was nearly 10 months ago—on Feb 4, 2023, when the temp dipped to 11-deg.
Little wonder it’s this cold. While most of the weekend snow has melted, jet stream steering winds are roaring southward out of the northernmost tundra region of North American and the Canadian archipelago—the islands in the Arctic Ocean.
The current chill is eating away at November 2023’s once formidable monthly temp surplus. By the close of today, November 27 will post only a 2.2 surplus. And Friday marks the BEGINNING OF DECEMBER 2023 and of the 3 MONTH METEOROLOGICAL WINTER SEASON—December, January and February.
Fortunately, this strong “NW” upper flow won’t last long. Upper winds are to shift westerly in coming days, a development which will drive milder Pacific air into the area. Pacific air—having maritime and NOT arctic origins, tends to be mild by day and cool at night.
And later this week, in the Thursday night/Friday time frame, Gulf air, with a surge of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico will come onto the scene along with a chilly rain. The air mass, though warmer than what we have in place as we open the week, will still be cool enough that some mixed wet snow can’t be ruled out to Chicago’s north at that time.
This past weekend was the coldest here in 8 months and featured the season’s 2nd sticking snow. The weather system responsible dropped 1.8″ at O’Hare, 1.9″ at Romeville, 1.5″ at Rockford and 1.1″ at Midway Airport. The snow fell onto comparatively warm ground and melted quite expeditiously. But the covering of snow for only the second time this fall made for a wintry scene Sunday morning.
While last week posted a near 11-deg temp surplus, this week is to come in 19-deg colder—A BIG CHANGE and one likely to see the week finish with a 5-deg surplus.
Pacific air is to dominate next week and is projected to produce weekly temps—though the week may begin with another wet system which taps Gulf air for a time Sunday into Monday. Once again with that system, cool air is close enough that, while rain appears the precip phase most likely from this distance in time, we’ll monitor newer data and updates on the system’s forecast track in the event temps drop to levels which could support some wet snow over parts of the area.
HERE’S MY LATEST MONDAY CHICAGO METRO FORECAST (11/27/2023)
TONIGHT: Clearing and colder with gusty west/northwest winds adding to the chill. Low 15—but as chilly at 9-above at typically colder inland locations. Wind chills by morning 0 to 10-above.
TUESDAY: Sunshine at the open but clouds develop, breezy and chilly. High 25—a reading 18-deg below normal.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing again late, cold and remaining breezy. Low 22.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny, breezy and not as cold. High 39.
THURSDAY: Clouding over, breezy and milder. Temps rising a bit above seasonal norm. Chance of some late day rain, especially southern sections—but a better chance of rain developing at night. High Thursday 45.
FRIDAY: A chilly rain over at least a portion of the Chicago area tapering offing. Breezy and seasonably cool. High 42.
SATURDAY: A good deal of sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Seasonable temps. High 42.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: Cloudy. Increasing prospects for some chilly rain—rain which tapers off Monday. High Sunday 42. Monday’s high 41.
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