Ex-Hyundai India president BVR Subbu: Only 8 out of 15 car makers to survive next 3-4 years in India

The Indian car market is currently the third biggest in the world, and there are around 15 prominent carmakers in it. Astonishingly, the major chunk of this market has been captured by just a few automakers, and the rest struggle to survive in the country. Recently, former Hyundai India President BVR Subbu, who is also an expert in the automotive industry, has made a critical statement. Subbu has said that out of the current 15 car manufacturing companies in India, only eight are likely to endure the challenges and competition over the next three to four years.

Struggling automakers

According to BVR Subbu, eight car manufacturers, including the likes of Honda, Nissan, Renault, MG Motors, Volkswagen, Skoda, Isuzu, FCA India (Jeep), and PCA Motors (Citroen C5 Aircross), are currently struggling with a market share below 2%. He stated that in recent years, after the exit of the American auto giants Ford and General Motors, questions about the long-term sustainability of these above-listed companies in an increasingly competitive market have become prevalent.

Dominance of Top Players

Presently, the Indian automotive market is dominated by four major players. These are – Maruti Suzuki, Tata, Hyundai, and Mahindra Automotive. Combined, these four carmakers alone have grabbed a staggering 81% of the market between April and October 2023. Additionally, when the South Korean automaker Kia and the Japanese automaker Toyota are added to this equation, this figure rises beyond 92%, which is extremely high.

Strategic Shifts and Revised Targets

Over the last few years, this concern for struggling automakers has also intensified as some of them have revised their market share targets, indicating the shifting landscape. Volkswagen, the German automotive giant that owns massive brands like Porsche, Lamborghini, Bentley, and a ton of others, once shared the target of acquiring an ambitious 8-10% market share in 2009. However, it has now announced that it is aiming for a more modest 5% by 2025. Similarly, Honda’s ambitious goal of 10% in 2010 and 2018 has reduced to a mere 1.9% in April-October 2023.

Potential Entrants

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In addition to the above critical statement, BVR Subbu, with his expertise in the Indian automotive market, has suggested that the industry may see further exits. He added that the field will only become limited to seven or eight major automakers. Intriguingly, he also stated that potential new entrants like Tesla and Ola Electric might change the future dynamics of the Indian car market.

Focus of Automakers on Exports

Interestingly, many car manufacturers that are facing challenges in the domestic market have shifted their focus to exports. One of the major examples of these automakers is Volkswagen, excluding Skoda, which has maintained a balanced 50-50 ratio between domestic sales and exports. Nissan and Renault have also collectively exported 34,224 vehicles in April-September, constituting 8.7% of total exports, while their combined domestic market share was only 1.85%. This suggests that India could become a manufacturing and export hub for automakers if the government supports these automakers.

Honda and Nissan Are Not Giving Up

The Japanese automaker Honda, despite its minuscule 1.9% market share, has committed to the Indian market for the long term, as stated by Takuya Tsumuru, President, and CEO of Honda in India. Additionally, Nissan, which has a market share of 0.69%, has also committed to remain invested in India. For this, it has announced that it will be collaborating with Renault and investing $600 million in FY24. Lastly, Renault, though selling 28,868 vehicles from April to October, has also aimed to double its sales by 2030.