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WGN WEATHER HEADLINES

TOM SKILLING: “AN HONOR WHICH IS BEYOND WORDS. THANK YOU!”

• “I have to thank the faculty and staff at NIU and all of the incredible Northern Illinois University meteorology interns who have worked with over the years here in our WGN weather office. I understand a number of you played a major role in making this happen. To each of you — and to Dr. Victor Gensini and all of his colleagues in NIU’s meteorology department — THANK YOU! Anyone who knows me knows I’m not often beyond words — but I’m there right now! Never expected this recognition.
• “NIU-trained meteorologists play an incredible role across the the meteorological profession — so to be recognized in this manner by NIU is an honor which is beyond words. THANK YOU!”

Friday GOES EAST satellite view of the warm air flooding into the country from the Pacific and the Gulf

FRIDAY’S ABNORMALLY MILD TEMPS — A RESULT OF AN EL NIÑO WINTER?

• Friday’s abnormally mild temps and weather pattern across the central U.S. has El Niño written all over it — Chicago’s overnight low was 46 degrees — 20 degrees ABOVE NORMAL — and we’re headed for temps today more typical of late October than of Dec 8th! Friday highs are to surge well into the 50s — with some sections of the Chicago flirting with 60 degrees.
• Chicago’s official low temp of 46 degrees at O’Hare Friday comes in WAY ABOVE the “normal” December 8th low of 26 degrees — and was even 7 degrees ABOVE THE NORMAL DECEMBER 8th HIGH TEMP!
• Pacific and Gulf air is behind the warmth — and more frequent than usual visits of this sort of mild air tends to be more frequent in El Niño winters.
• DOES THAT MEAN THERE WON’T BE ARCTIC BLASTS or SNOWSTORMS at some point(s) in the months ahead? ABSOLUTELY NOT — but history has shown many El Niños see fewer of both. It’s worth reinforcing the notion that NO TWO El Niños are precisely alike. But there are weather trends noted with past El Niño cold seasons that are worthy of noting.

THE OVERALL NATIONAL SNOW PACK IS DOWN OVER THE PAST 11 DAYS DUE TO MELTING AS PACIFIC AIR RAISES TEMPS — EVEN AS SOME WESTERN MOUNTAINS PICK UP BIG SNOWS

• A fast west/southwest jet stream flow across the country has frigid arctic air “bottled up” across northern North America — unable to plunge deeply into the Lower 48 at the moment. What’s more, the mild temps which have swept the country, while depositing prolific snows on a number of the We pack.
• As of Friday morning, the National Weather Service reports just 13.5% of the Lower 48 has a cover of snow — about half of the snow pack (26% of the country) just 11 days ago — and HALF THE SNOW PACK ON THIS DATE A YEAR AGO.
• That’s important because it’s over a reflective (i.e. “high albedo”) snow cover that arctic air is best able to move). Less snow cover often supports less arctic air.
• ALL THIS CAN CHANGE ON A DIME — but it would require a big upper air shift to do so. That CAN happen, of course— but a major or extended incursion of frigid arctic air into the Midwest isn’t yet in sight on our models in the weeks ahead. If it’s to occur, it isn’t yet being picked up on model runs. Stay tuned!

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