After suspending direct assistance to Niger’s government, where does Canada go from here?

With the federal government suspending direct financial assistance to Niger’s government after a military coup removed the country’s president, some experts say western nations, including Canada, should re-evaluate their policies abroad when it comes to promoting democracy abroad.

Canada announced on Saturday that it would suspend direct budgetary support to the government in Niger, where members of the country’s military led a coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.

Ottawa has said it “strongly condemns the attempted coup,” while Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly has called for President Bazoum and the “democratically elected government” to be reinstated.

Meanwhile, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – the regional trading bloc consisting of 15 West African countries — gave Niger’s military junta until Sunday to reinstate the president under the threat of a military intervention.

However, some, including Nigeria’s Senate, have called for a more peaceful resolution to the crisis.

On Canada’s response, Andrew Rasiulis, a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, formerly known as the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute, told CTV News Channel on Sunday that he believes Canada has taken a “measured” step in suspending direct financial aid to the government.

“I think they (Niger) understand that Canada has been actually quite moderate in this respect and so it is not on the forefront of the concerns of the Nigerien government,” Rasiulis said.

“What they’re really concerned about is the efforts of ECOWAS and the French government to try and overturn the coup.”

Many of Niger’s citizens, while openly resentful of their former colonizer France, have appeared to embrace Russia as a potential ally, with some protesters waving Russian flags at demonstrations.

“The question then becomes what will happen in Niger?” Rasiulis said. “Will the Nigeriens actually ask Canada to leave? We’re not sure.”

The Russian mercenary group Wagner is known to operate in Africa including Niger’s neighbour Mali, which experienced a coup back in 2021. Burkina Faso, another country that borders Niger, also has experienced multiple coups in recent years.

Mali and Burkina Faso have both said they would consider an intervention in Niger a “declaration of war” against them. Niger’s junta has also asked Wagner for help.

However, Oluwole Ojewale, regional co-ordinator for Central Africa at the Institute for Security Studies in Dakar, Senegal, told CTV News Channel on Sunday he believes the junta will use the ousted president as a “bargaining chip” in ongoing negotiations.

“For now it is just a military propaganda,” Ojewale said.

“So for now, I think that is going to be extended to continue to explore the part of diplomacy, to find a lasting solution to the crisis,” he added.

MILITARY ASSISTANCE IN NIGER

The recent coup has also put into question the military assistance that Canada and other countries have provided to Niger.

Western countries have viewed Niger as a partner in the fight against extremists in the Sahel region, south of the Sahara Desert, that are linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State. The United States, France and other European countries have committed hundreds of millions of dollars worth of military assistance to Niger, along with thousands of military personnel.

The Canadian government has not said much about its military training mission in Niger, known as Operation Naberius.

Under Operation Naberius, the Canadian Armed Forces sent up to 50 members each year to Niger since 2013 to train the Forces armées nigériennes, training that also involved Canadian Special Operations Forces.

A Defence Department spokesperson told The Globe and Mail in late July that there is no current training program in Niger. The spokesperson also said Canadian Special Operations Forces Command has not provided training to Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, the recently installed head of state for Niger, or Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou, the head of Niger’s special forces and a suspected coup leader.

Aurel Braun, a professor of international relations and political science at the University of Toronto, told CTV News Channel on Sunday that Canada’s policy in Niger, while well intended, “clearly has not achieved the desired results because a democratically elected government was overthrown.”

“And I think that’s a very strong hint that something has fundamentally gone wrong,” he said.

However, Braun adds that it is not just Canada but also the collective West that has not handled the situation well.

“This is one very sad example for the people of that country, but it is happening elsewhere as well in many ways,” Braun said.

“Dictatorships are on the march and democracies need to become better at predicting and at preventing these kinds of juntas and better at supporting democratic governments — making them more resilient, making them more popular to the extent that external forces can do that.”

With files from CTVNews.ca Writer Sissi De Flaviis and The Associated Press