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Finding ways to add starting pitching is only half the Red Sox battle this offseason.
As was the case when spring training rolled around last year, they already have several starting pitching options in-house, technically more than a traditional five-man requires. But as evidenced by the last-place finish, which was heavily influenced by rotation problems, quantity is the bare minimum.
The Red Sox need more quality.
There were flashes of it in the rotation this year – Brayan Bello’s first half and Kutter Crawford’s second half – but little consistency. Starters must sustain success and others to take steps forward. If they can’t, reeling in a big fish via free agency or trade won’t be enough.
Here’s where things stand for five key arms:
Brayan Bello
This was Bello’s second year and first full season in the Majors, and calling it a mixed bag doesn’t do his campaign justice.
He led the team with 28 starts and 157 innings, and was magnificent from late April until the All-Star break, posting a 2.35 ERA across 72 ⅔ innings. During that span, he allowed no more than three earned runs in any of his 12 starts, and only gave up that many once. He pitched at least six innings in each of his six starts between the beginning of June until the break, including back-to-back seven-inning gems against the New York Yankees.
Then, like much of his team, Bello fell apart in the second half. After posting a 3.04 ERA and 1.188 WHIP across 14 starts totaling 80 innings before the break, he pitched to a 5.49 ERA and 1.494 WHIP over his 14 starts after. In three fewer innings, he gave up 20 more earned runs, double the homers, issued one more walk, and struck out fewer batters.
When it came to the timing of his starts, Bello’s performance was literally night and day. Whereas opposing batters hit .237 with a .694 OPS against him in his 18 night contests, they whalloped him in his 10 day games to the tune of a .340 average and .951 OPS. In 109 innings at night, he owned a 3.06 ERA and gave up 37 earned runs. In just 48 innings of daytime pitching, he had a 6.94 ERA and gave up the same amount of earned runs.
Pitcher and team spent the season trying to diagnose the problem, to no avail. In fact, the problem worsened as the season went on. In his final day game, Boston took a 4-0 lead in the top of the second before the now-champion Texas Rangers answered back with six runs on six hits in the bottom of the inning, and two more in the following frame. Bello didn’t return for the fourth inning, his day done after a season-worst eight earned runs on eight hits and four walks.
Whatever the solution may be, the Red Sox need to find it as soon as possible. Daylight is standing in the way of Bello becoming the true frontline starter they need him to be.
Chris Sale
Chris Sale needs to step up – or rather step back to his old self – this year. Because for the first time since arriving in Boston via trade in December 2016, the veteran left-hander is at a true crossroads. He has a vesting option for 2025, but it only kicks in if he finishes in the top 10 in American League Cy Young voting and stays off the injured list at year’s end. As past precedents go, the last several years of injuries and astonishingly bad luck don’t inspire confidence. Barring a miraculous turnaround in his upcoming age-35 season, Sale will become a free agent next fall.
Thus, the southpaw must prove himself one way or another. But the motivation to get back to his old self has never been in doubt. Unfortunately, sheer force of will simply isn’t enough to get his body to pitch like his ‘17 self again.
Nick Pivetta
Since arriving in Boston during the 2020 season, Nick Pivetta has been one of the only consistently healthy pitchers on the roster. Though he spent more time in the bullpen than any other year of his Red Sox tenure, making 22 relief appearances and just 16 starts, his 4.04 ERA and 183 strikeouts were the best marks of his three full seasons here.
Like Sale, Pivetta will be fueled by personal motivation as well as the potential for collective success. A strong ’24 season will not only benefit the team, but determine the reception he receives when he enters free agency next fall.
Kutter Crawford
Crawford didn’t get enough credit for the work he did this year. In his first full season in the Majors, the 27-year-old right-hander posted a 4.04 ERA across 129 ⅓ innings while being volleyed back and forth between the rotation and bullpen.
Following his disastrous season debut, a seven-earned run, four-inning start against Pittsburgh on April 3, he owned a 3.66 ERA and 3.57 FIP over the remainder of the season. He held opposing lineups to a .213 average and .366 slugging percentage, and handled left-handed batters almost as well as he did righties.
Crawford was dominant as a long reliever – only allowing four earned runs across eight outings totaling 21 ⅔ innings – but also handled the starting work with aplomb, and unlike most of Boston’s arms, improved as the season went on. Working exclusively out of the rotation in the second half of the season, he posted a 3.97 ERA through 14 starts – tied with Bello for the most on the staff – and struck out 77 batters over 68 innings, the second and third-best totals on the staff, respectively.
It’s a promising foundation for a future in the rotation, if he can sustain it moving forward. Or better yet, build on it.
Garrett Whitlock
Garrett Whitlock was magnificent out of the bullpen in his rookie year, but the two seasons since were marred by injuries, and the right-hander has struggled in different roles. After signing the righty to a four-year, $18.75 million extension in early April ‘22, the Red Sox announced that Whitlock would be moving to the rotation, which he did shortly thereafter.
In 19 career starts, he owns a 4.76 ERA and 1.290 WHIP across 90 ⅔ innings, compared to a 2.65 ERA and 1.048 WHIP over 132 ⅔ career innings as a reliever. He’s given up more earned runs and homers as a starter.
Whitlock began the ‘23 season on a rehab assignment in Triple-A, ramping up slowly after season-ending hip surgery the year prior. The Red Sox activated him on April 11, but by month’s end, he was on the injured list with elbow ulnar neuritis. He returned a month later, only to have elbow inflammation put him back on the IL from July 4-August 13.
The path forward is unclear. The Red Sox plan to build him up as a starter this offseason, but if he’s unable to stay healthy in the rotation, a dominant bullpen arm is a heck of a consolation prize.
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