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NEW DELHI: India will be the main engine of global coal demand growth through 2026, even as global consumption is estimated to top 8.5 billion tonne for the first time in 2023, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, days after the COP28 climate declaration called for driving out all fossil fuels.
The IEA coal market report and forecast 2023 projected India’s coal demand rising 8% this year and 3.5% annually thereafter to 1,397 million tonnes (mt) to say this will be a key driver of upward pressure on demand, although the global trend will be set in China.
India’s coal use will rise sharply is in spite of an expected trebling of solar power capacity by 2026, compared to 2021, and a target of raising the share of green power to 50% by 2030. Coal-fired generation currently accounts for about 70% of electricity flowing in the grid.
The report said India needed new coal-based generation capacity as the increase in solar power capacity will not be enough to meet the incremental electricity demand for powering the rapid pace of economic growth. India has more than 4 gigawatts of generation capacity and recently saw demand peaking at 2.4 gigawatts.
As TOI reported earlier, union power minister R K Singh, on November 6 told his counterparts from the states India has to start work on 30,000 MW (wegawatt) new thermal generation capacity on top of the 50,000 MW already underway to avoid shortage in the face of rising electricity demand.
Power generation determines India’s coal demand as it accounts for 74% of consumption, which surged 9% to 1,162 mt in 2022. This marked second year of “remarkable” growth of 14% seen in 2021 as the economy rebounded from the pandemic, the report said.
Noting that India’s 7% GDP growth in FY22 was supported by a 12% higher coal production, the report projected coal consumption for power generation to rise 2.4% annually for the next three years to reach 1,006 mt by 2026, based on 5% GDP growth estimates.
The report also doubted the impact of the biomass co-firing policy on coal consumption as the biomass supply chain is in its infancy. The policy, scheduled come into force from April 2024, sets an obligatory blending rate of 5% for coal plants, increasing to 7% subsequently.
The IEA coal market report and forecast 2023 projected India’s coal demand rising 8% this year and 3.5% annually thereafter to 1,397 million tonnes (mt) to say this will be a key driver of upward pressure on demand, although the global trend will be set in China.
India’s coal use will rise sharply is in spite of an expected trebling of solar power capacity by 2026, compared to 2021, and a target of raising the share of green power to 50% by 2030. Coal-fired generation currently accounts for about 70% of electricity flowing in the grid.
The report said India needed new coal-based generation capacity as the increase in solar power capacity will not be enough to meet the incremental electricity demand for powering the rapid pace of economic growth. India has more than 4 gigawatts of generation capacity and recently saw demand peaking at 2.4 gigawatts.
As TOI reported earlier, union power minister R K Singh, on November 6 told his counterparts from the states India has to start work on 30,000 MW (wegawatt) new thermal generation capacity on top of the 50,000 MW already underway to avoid shortage in the face of rising electricity demand.
Power generation determines India’s coal demand as it accounts for 74% of consumption, which surged 9% to 1,162 mt in 2022. This marked second year of “remarkable” growth of 14% seen in 2021 as the economy rebounded from the pandemic, the report said.
Noting that India’s 7% GDP growth in FY22 was supported by a 12% higher coal production, the report projected coal consumption for power generation to rise 2.4% annually for the next three years to reach 1,006 mt by 2026, based on 5% GDP growth estimates.
The report also doubted the impact of the biomass co-firing policy on coal consumption as the biomass supply chain is in its infancy. The policy, scheduled come into force from April 2024, sets an obligatory blending rate of 5% for coal plants, increasing to 7% subsequently.
