Nearly 1 in 2 Canadians would prefer the next federal election happen before 2025: Nanos survey

Nearly one in two Canadians would prefer the next federal election take place before 2025, according to a recent survey conducted by Nanos Research.

When it comes to their preference for the timing of the next national vote, 46 per cent of survey respondents indicated they either wanted the next election to happen as soon as possible, or in 2024. 

Canadians aren’t scheduled to go back to the polls until October 2025, and the Liberals and NDP continue to maintain a supply-and-confidence agreement that is poised to keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in power amid the minority Parliament, until June 2025.

Based on the Nanos survey, just 33 per cent of respondents said they’d prefer to wait the full four years before having to cast their next federal ballot, in 2025.

Another 17 per cent said they had no preference of when the next federal election will be called, a decision that rests in the hands of the Governor General, typically on the advice of the prime minister to dissolve a Parliament. 

Since 2007, the Canada Elections Act has outlined a timeline for a general election to be held on a fixed date, the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous federal vote.

But, as Election Canada notes, the Act doesn’t prevent an election from being called earlier or later, “as long as it is no later than five years after the previous election.” 

The 2021 federal election was called early, a move that Trudeau said was to allow Canadians to have their say about who they wanted to lead the country out of the COVID-19 crisis and into a new era of considerable change.

Ultimately, Canadians sent him back to Ottawa with an election outcome that was quite similar to the 2019 vote.

Nanos’ survey found that men were more likely to want another early election than women, and Canadians over the age of 55 were more inclined to want to wait until 2025 while Canadians aged 18 to 54 were more eager for another vote as soon as possible.

Close to one in two Canadians would prefer the next federal election take place as soon as possible (29 per cent) or in 2024 (17 per cent), while one in three would prefer 2025 (33 per cent) and 17 per cent have no preference, a recent Nanos survey finds. Regionally, 41.3 per cent of Canadians in the prairies said they’d like to go back to the polls sooner rather than later, while Atlantic Canadians and Quebecers were more inclined to wait.

Between November and December the Conservatives had encouraged Canadians to sign a non-binding e-petition sponsored by Conservative MP Michelle Ferreri calling on the House of Commons to “call for a vote of no confidence and a federal election 45 days following the vote.”

The e-petition closed on Dec. 24, and by then had garnered 386,698 signatures, making it the most-signed e-petition since the House of Commons began accepting electronic petitions in 2015.

Underpinning this push was what the initiator—a Peterborough, Ont. resident—said was a loss of confidence in Trudeau to act in the best interest of all Canadians. 

Any petition that garners more than 500 signatures will be presented in the House and while the government is not bound to act based on it, an official response will have to be provided to MPs within 45 days.

Over the series of year-end interviews the prime minister granted, Trudeau repeatedly reaffirmed his intention to stay on and lead the Liberals into the next election.

Methodology: Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land and cell lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,069 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between Nov. 30 and Dec. 2, as part of an omnibus survey. The margin of error for this survey is 3 .0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. This study was commissioned by CTV News and the research was conducted by Nanos Research.