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Black Monday looms and while many coaches are on the hot seat, chances are not all will lose their jobs. Here’s a look at nine coaches with uncertain futures and predictions on whether they’ll be “Safe” or “Gone” after the conclusion of the NFL regular season on Sunday (team’s record in parenthesis).
Atlanta Falcons (7-9): Arthur Smith
Has anyone done less with more than Smith this season? Multiple NFL insiders have suggested Smith’s job is safe, but that could change if the Falcons suffer a second consecutive embarrassing road loss. They’ve already dropped games to the lowly Cardinals, Panthers, Titans (in Will Levis’ first career start) and Vikings (in Josh Dobbs’ fifth full day with the team) this season. If the Falcons lose decisively to the Saints on Sunday, Smith might force owner Arthur Blank’s hand.
PREDICTION: Gone
Chicago Bears (7-9): Matt Eberflus
The Bears showed life during the second half of the season after an ugly 2-7 start, likely saving the jobs of Eberflus and quarterback Justin Fields. Since Week 10, Chicago’s may have had the league’s best defense, ranking first in defensive expected points added (EPA) per play (-0.167). Eberflus, the former defensive coordinator for the Colts (2018-21), has turned around the unit after it allowed an average of 26.9 points per game from Weeks 1-9. The Bears have surrendered 17.1 points per game during their current 5-2 run.
PREDICTION: Safe
Las Vegas Raiders (7-9 | 4-4 under Pierce): Antonio Pierce
The Raiders interim coach earned the full-time job after leading the team to a 20-14 win at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day. Since Pierce took over in Week 9, Las Vegas has played at an unbelievable level on defense, including ranking first in defensive rush EPA after ranking 30th in the same metric from Weeks 1-8.
PREDICTION: Safe
New England Patriots (4-12): Bill Belichick
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano agree that Sunday’s game against the New York Jets will likely be Belichick’s last as Patriots head coach. That would be an unfortunate way for the Belichick era to end, but the NFL doesn’t run on sentimentality. The Patriots have their most losses since 1992 and Belichick the most in a season during his storied NFL career.
PREDICTION: Gone
New Orleans Saints (8-8): Dennis Allen
New Orleans squandered a perfect opportunity to take back the NFC South against the league’s second-easiest schedule this season. Only the New York Giants (.300) have a worse strength of victory than the Saints (.328). But they have also rebounded from tough losses to give themselves a chance to reach the playoffs with a week remaining in the regular season, making it unlikely the risk-averse front office will make sweeping changes.
PREDICTION: Safe
New York Jets (6-10): Robert Saleh
New York’s season ended before it even got off the ground. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending Achilles tear after only one pass attempt sunk the team’s playoff hopes and likely saved Saleh from being fired after a third consecutive losing season dropped him to 17-33 as Jets head coach. His .340 winning percentage is the worst in franchise history among coaches given at least 50 games.
PREDICTION: Safe
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8): Todd Bowles
Bowles is a win away from becoming the first coach in Buccaneers franchise history to reach the playoffs in each of his first two seasons in charge. He’s done a fantastic job keeping Tampa Bay in contention despite the team having a huge question at quarterback entering the season with Tom Brady’s retirement and journeyman Baker Mayfield’s arrival.
PREDICTION: Safe
Tennessee Titans (5-11): Mike Vrabel
Back-to-back losing seasons might make this seem like the right time for the Titans to consider an overhaul to their coaching staff, but Vrabel proved his value in his first four (winning) seasons, which included three playoff appearances. “Of course I want to be here. Want to be here as long as we can win,” Vrabel said during a news conference on Wednesday. If the Titans are committed to winning, their best bet is keeping Vrabel.
PREDICTION: Safe
Washington Commanders (4-12): Ron Rivera
Is there a worse-kept secret than Rivera’s job (in)security? The Commanders have one playoff appearance and no winning seasons under Rivera’s watch. Most damning is Washington’s awful defense, which has allowed 480 points this season, the most in franchise history. Entering Week 18, the Commanders rank last in total defense and scoring defense, which should give the front office the motivation it needs to move on from the defensive-minded Rivera after the regular-season finale.
PREDICTION: Gone
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