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Khan, who was arrested Saturday after a court sentenced him to three years in prison for corruption, could have been a top contender in the upcoming vote.
As Khan’s lawyers seek his release, Pakistan may now face weeks of political upheaval that could provide an opening for the country’s powerful military to seize more control while an interim caretaker government takes over.
Khan denies the accusations of concealing assets from the sale of state gifts during his time in office, and his legal team has appealed his conviction at a high court in Islamabad. But a hearing on Wednesday did not result in his release on bail.
The decision by Pakistan’s electoral commission to almost immediately bar him from office as a result of the conviction is “premature,” Khan adviser Sayed Zulfikar Bukhari said in a tweet. He added that the “government is trying to eliminate Khan from the political landscape of Pakistan.”
The intent, Bukhari said, is to bog him down with “frivolous” cases before fresh elections are held.
While the military and security forces have regained control after violent pro-Khan protests in May challenged their authority, the Pakistani leadership does not appear to have succeeded in breaking Khan’s popularity among voters and supporters of his party, Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice), or PTI.
Khan’s party apparatus has fallen apart, more legal cases against him are moving forward, and the government has compared violent pro-Khan protesters with terrorists. Yet his party celebrated a victory in a closely watched local election Sunday on the outskirts of Peshawar in northwestern Pakistan.
Voters across the political spectrum there expressed doubts about Khan’s guilty verdict, which followed a trial that his supporters have criticized as rushed and unfair.
“If general elections are held, the PTI will sweep the polls, not only in this province but across the country,” said 21-year-old Saif Ullah, who has long been a staunch supporter of a rival party but said he sympathizes with Khan because he thinks he is innocent.
The unbroken enthusiasm for Khan among many voters in northwestern Pakistan, where his party had struggled in recent years, suggests that his arrest is deepening a divide between the Pakistani establishment and people who feel disenfranchised.
“Imran is a clean politician, and the charges against him are political,” said Wisal Ahmad, 24, a recent university graduate who supports Khan. “He cares about the people of Pakistan,” said Ahmad.
While many voters cite easier access to health care and other popular policies introduced during Khan’s term, some also still admire the former cricket star for securing Pakistan’s victory at the Cricket World Cup in 1992, a triumph that paved the way for his quick rise in politics.
In an interview with the BBC before his arrest, Khan predicted that his party would continue to win in elections. “And because of that, they’re dismantling our democracy,” he said.
While analysts agree that Khan remains popular, some worry that his rhetoric is fueling tensions.
“There is no sign of Khan losing support,” Zahid Hussain, a Pakistani political commentator, wrote in the Dawn newspaper on Wednesday. But Hussain cautioned that Khan’s effort “to bring down the entire edifice” with his populist rhetoric “has done huge damage to the democratic process.”
“A prolonged and empowered caretaker administration backed by the security establishment seems to be very much on the cards, putting democratic transition on hold,” wrote Hussain.
Many political analysts expect the Pakistani leadership to find a way to circumvent the requirement to hold elections within 90 days of the dissolution of Parliament. Cabinet members say they want electoral constituencies to be redrawn based on the most recent census, which, according to Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah Khan, could delay the general election until next year.
It wouldn’t be the first such delay under the current government. Authorities stalled several regional votes over the past year, prompting constitutional concerns from government critics who viewed the delays as attempts to prevent Khan’s party from winning.
Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, a Pakistani political commentator, said the current governing coalition may be worried about how its 15-month term, which began after Khan was ousted by Parliament in April last year, will be judged by voters if memories of its performance are still fresh.
“This government has been unable to lessen the suffering of people when it comes to inflation and high prices,” he said. But any government would probably have struggled to succeed, “given the precarious economic situation” when the coalition government took over from Khan last year, he added.
In Peshawar, some voters questioned whether Sharif’s government can be blamed for Pakistan’s destabilized economy. Ahmad Mujataba, a 34-year-old who campaigns for a regional party opposed to Khan, said he struggles to comprehend how Khan’s promise of change still resonates with his young voter base, even though his party’s administration of the surrounding province for almost a decade “left it with billions in debt and an economy on the brink of default.”
Mehboob, the political analyst, said Sharif’s government could also highlight progress on restoring ties with other countries, including the United States, over the past 15 months, after Khan frustrated U.S. officials by suggesting that they were behind a conspiracy against him.
But the government’s most consequential legacy may become its inability to address the deeper frustrations of Khan’s supporters, with many feeling increasingly disconnected from political elites, some analysts worry.
“What seems undeniable is that respect for orderly democratic processes in Pakistan has suffered a particularly severe blow over the last 15 tumultuous months,” wrote Marvin G. Weinbaum, director of the Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, in an analysis.
For Pakistan, it might be a blow “from which it may not recover,” he wrote.
Nawaz Khan reported from Peshawar, Masih from Seoul and Noack from Paris.
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