Men’s March Madness Sweet 16 Preview: Purdue, Gonzaga pit star Canadians head-to-head
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This year’s edition of March Madness is showcasing who the best teams in the sport have been and why they’re so highly rated. Yes, it’s been chalky, but with all eight of the No. 1 and 2 seeds still alive and only one team lower than a six seed, every matchup from this point forward should be an absolute heavyweight duel.
Everyone wants to watch double-digit seed teams in the Elite 8 until it’s actually time to watch double-digit seed teams in the Elite 8.
Instead, with favourites coming out on top through the first two rounds, the footing should be more level in the Sweet 16, with two 1-4 and 2-3 matchups really setting the tone.
Here’s a deeper look at the eight games on the horizon and a storyline to watch for in each one.
East
(1) UConn vs. (5) San Diego State – Thursday, 7:39 p.m. ET
UConn Huskies
Record: 33-3
How they got here: Beat (16) Stetson 91-52 and (9) Northwestern 75-58
Key player: Tristen Newton
San Diego State Aztecs
Record: 26-10
How they got here: Beat (12) UAB and (13) Yale
Key player: Jaedon LeDee
What to watch for: Can San Diego State improve result in National Final rematch?
The reigning champion UConn Huskies have looked inevitable, entering the tournament as the top-overall seed and completely overpowering Stetson and Northwestern. They hold the nation’s second-best adjusted offence rating (126.4) and ninth-best adjusted defensive rating (93.5) according to KenPom.
Their experienced backcourt duo of Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer have led them to the best assist percentage in the college hoops (19.7) and big man Donovan Clingan has put a lid on the rim, almost finishing with a triple-double in the win over Northwestern after swatting eight shots.
The Aztecs have once again prided themselves on their defence. Though in this go-around, they’ll have a new and improved Jaedon LeDee running the show on offence, with the fifth-year forward making a massive jump to 21.5 points a game this year. He’ll need to fire on all cylinders if San Diego State wants to pull off the major upset in this Finals rematch.
(2) Iowa State vs. (3) Illinois – Thursday, March 28, 10:09 p.m. ET
Iowa State Cyclones
Record: 29-7
How they got here: Beat (15) South Dakota State and (7) Washington State
Key player: Tamin Lipsey
Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 28-8
How they got here: Beat (14) Morehead State and (11) Duquesne
Key player: Terrence Shannon Jr.
What to watch for: An unstoppable force against an immovable object
The matchup between Illinois and Iowa State is a tale as old as time, pitting the best offence in the country against the best defence.
According to KenPom, the Cyclones have the best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country at 87.5. In their Big 12 Tournament run, they held Kansas State to 57 points (15 below their average), Baylor to 62 points (18 below their average) and Houston to an absurd 41 points (33 below their average).
Tamin Lipsey has been stellar, finishing with the best defensive box plus/minus in the country at 6.5, the second-most defensive win shares with 3.2 and the third-best defensive rating at 88.4, all while standing at only 6-foot-1.
Meanwhile, Illinois has made its money on offence, finishing with the best adjusted offensive efficiency at 126.7 per KenPom. Terrence Shannon Jr. has led the way, averaging the third-most points in the country at 23.3 a game and has looked unstoppable in recent weeks, averaging 34.0 in the Big Ten Tournament and 28.0 in March Madness.
WEST
(2) Arizona vs. (6) Clemson – Thursday, March 28, 7:09 p.m. ET
Arizona Wildcats
Record: 27-8
How they got here: Beat (15) Long Beach State and (7) Dayton
Key player: Caleb Love
Clemson Tigers
Record: 23-11
How they got here: Beat (11) New Mexico and (3) Baylor
Key player: PJ Hall
What to watch for: Can Clemson’s uncharacteristic defence keep it up?
The Wildcats are more than making up for last year’s first-round disappointment against 15-seed Princeton, making quick work of their two opponents in Salt Lake City. The injection of Caleb Love has given ‘Zona the score-first guard they’ve missed since losing Bennedict Mathurin.
Meanwhile, in their games against New Mexico and Baylor, Clemson showcased an uncharacteristic defensive aptitude, holding New Mexico 25 points below their average and Baylor 16 points below. That sort of performance certainly wasn’t their calling card in the regular season, as the Tigers gave up 70.6 points a game, the 130th-best mark in the country and possess the 178th-best defensive rating at 103.8. They’ll now face an Arizona team that plays more physically than their last two opponents, able to crash the glass at the second-highest rate in the country.
(1) North Carolina vs. (4) Alabama – Thursday, March 28, 9:39 p.m. ET
North Carolina Tar Heels
Record: 29-7
How they got here: Beat (16) Wagner and (9) Michigan State
Key Player: RJ Davis
Alabama Crimson Tide
Record: 23-11
How they got here: Beat (13) Charleston and (12) Grand Canyon
Key Player: Mark Sears
What to watch for: How do the Crimson Tide shut down Bacot?
This matchup on paper should look like a duel between two of the most prolific scorers in the country, RJ Davis and Mark Sears, with the star guards averaging 21.3 and 21.5 points respectively. However, this game should really be decided by Armando Bacot, UNC’s star man in the middle.
The imposing 6-foot-10 big man has been ruthless so far, notching a 20-point, 15-rebound double-double against Wagner in the first round and then dominating Michigan State in the second round, scoring 18 and forcing the Spartans into foul trouble.
With the Crimson Tide usually opting to play small, it should be interesting to see who they throw at Bacot to stop him. They also got into foul trouble against Grand Canyon in the second round, finishing with 26 calls on the night. Expect the Tar Heels to try to force the issue once more.
SOUTH
(2) Marquette vs. (11) N.C. State – Friday, March 29, 7:09 p.m. ET
Marquette Golden Eagles
Record: 27-9
How they got here: Beat (15) Western Kentucky and (10) Colorado
Key Player: Tyler Kolek
N.C. State Wolfpack
Record: 24-14
How they got here: Beat (6) Texas Tech and (14) Oakland
Key Player: D.J. Burns
What to watch for: Is N.C. State the last hope for a Cinderella run?
In what’s been a chalky tournament, N.C. State has given the Cinderella-hopeful crowd something to cheer for.
After running the table in the ACC Tournament with five wins in five days, they crashed the dance, immediately dominated Texas Tech and then beat another Cinderella hopeful in Oakland.
Big man D.J. Burns has been unstoppable, averaging 16.6 points on 67.5 per cent true shooting over the last seven games. His pairing with DJ Horne, who’s serving up a steady helping of 40 per cent from deep on 6.5 attempts a game this season has given them a solid dynamic duo.
However, they’ll have to take on a Marquette team desperate to get back to the Elite 8 for the first time in 11 years and lead guard Tyler Kolek, whose table-setting ability and basketball IQ could carve up N.C. State’s 75th-ranked defence per KenPom.
(1) Houston vs. (4) Duke – Friday, March 29, 9:39 p.m. ET
Houston Cougars
Record: 32-4
How they got here: Beat (16) Longwood and (9) Texas A&M
Key Player: Jamal Shead
Duke Blue Devils
Record: 26-8
How they got here: Beat (13) Vermont and (12) James Madison
Key Player: Kyle Filipowski
What to watch for: How will Duke fare in their first real challenge?
It’s been a breezy tournament so far for the Blue Devils as they made quick work of Vermont and James Madison, beating them by 17 and 38 points respectively (hey, what’s up, hello). However, in Houston, they’re running into a buzzsaw.
The Cougars’ defence has been stellar all year, ranking second in adjusted efficiency per KenPom as their aggressive, blitzing style has forced the 12th-most turnovers (15.9) and the worst opposing field-goal percentage in college basketball (37.8 per cent).
Star guard Jamal Shead has been stellar on both ends, running the offence and scoring when it matters most, highlighted by a 21-point, 10-assist performance in the second-round overtime win against Texas A&M.
Should Duke want to advance to the Elite 8, freshman Jared McCain may have to rekindle the fire he had in the 30-point, eight 3-pointer performance against James Madison and big man Kyle Filipowski will have to attack a Houston team without the size to match up with him.
MIDWEST
(1) Purdue vs. (5) Gonzaga – Friday, March 29, 7:39 p.m. ET
Purdue Boilermakers
Record: 31-4
How they got here: Beat (16) Grambling State and (8) Utah State
Key Player: Zach Edey
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Record: 27-7
How they got here: Beat (12) McNeese State and (4) Kansas
Key Player: Ryan Nembhard
What to watch for: Star Canadians go head-to-head
This Sweet 16 matchup between powerhouses is a must-watch for fans of Canadian basketball as the two most renowned Northern hoopers in college ball go head-to-head.
Reigning Naismith Trophy winner Zach Edey has been the most dominant singular force in college basketball this season and is well on his way to a second-consecutive clean sweep of the individual awards after averaging a ridiculous 24.5 points, 12.1 rebounds and 2.3 blocks on 62.3 per cent from the field this season. Standing at an unparalleled 7-foot-4, the Toronto native should look down (literally) on anyone Gonzaga throws at him, whose tallest players are at least five inches shorter than him.
Ryan Nembhard, meanwhile, transferred to the West Coast program in the off-season, following in the footsteps of older brother Andrew. As the lead guard for the Bulldogs, the third-year guard has set the table for the seventh-best offence in the country and the eighth-most efficient three-point shooting team.
(2) Tennessee vs. (3) Creighton – Friday, March 29, 10:09 p.m. ET
Tennessee Volunteers
Record: 26-8
How they got here: Beat (15) Saint Peter’s and (7) Texas
Key Player: Dalton Knecht
Creighton Blue Jays
Record: 25-9
How they got here: Beat (14) Akron and (11) Oregon
Key Player: Baylor Scheierman
What to watch for: Will war of attrition weigh on Creighton?
Creighton played what might be the game of the tournament so far in the second round against the Oregon Ducks, eventually winning 86-73 in a double-overtime thriller. Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander played from whistle to whistle and big man Ryan Kalkbrenner sat for only one minute.
That trio has been stellar, averaging 53.4 points combined this season, but they’ll need that sort of conviction once again when they run into the third-best defence in the country in Tennessee.
The Volunteers come into this game with an 89.9 adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom and allow the third-best opposing field goal percentage in the country at 38.6 per cent.
However, they struggled offensively against Texas in the second round, shooting a paltry 3-for-25 from deep, their worst mark of the season, and Naismith Trophy finalist Dalton Knecht was a brutal 5-for-18 from the field. Don’t expect Creighton to let them get away with this sort of performance in the Sweet 16.
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