Red Sox mailbag: Is Nick Pivetta for real? And should Sox extend him or trade him?

Don’t look now, but the Red Sox might be better than people thought.

Widely projected to finish last for the third straight season, the Red Sox entered Saturday with an impressive 6-2 record and tied for first in the AL East. They have largely taken care of business on their 10-game season-opening west coast road trip, and on Tuesday they’ll finally return home to Fenway Park riding a wave of momentum.

Considering most of the games have started after 9:30 p.m. on the east coast, you’d be forgiven if you haven’t seen it for yourself and maybe have a hard time believing it. So in this week’s mailbag, we dive deep into the pitching staff’s impressive turnaround, how Andrew Bailey has gotten the most out of his guys, what the future might have in store for Nick Pivetta and a couple of other fun topics leading into the home opener.

What in particular is Andrew Bailey doing amidst this unbelievable start on the mound for Sox pitchers? — Jason C.

Since taking over as the Red Sox new pitching coach, Andrew Bailey has helped implement a new program designed to help each pitcher get the most out of their abilities. Though the approach is tailored to each player, the general philosophy boils down to throwing nasty stuff in the strike zone and on having each pitcher throw their best pitches as often as possible.

Basically, the more you pound the strike zone, the less likely it is you’ll walk someone. And the more you throw your best stuff, the less likely it is you’ll get hit.

We can already see the change manifest in which pitches the Red Sox starters are throwing and how often. Brayan Bello, for example, last year threw his four-seam fastball 20.6% of the time despite opposing batters hitting .310 against it. This year he’s almost completely abandoned it, instead relying more heavily on his sinker (42.7%), changeup (32.7%) and slider (24.6%).

We’ve seen a similar dynamic emerge for others as well. Tanner Houck is throwing his sinker and splitter far more often than in the past, pairing the two with his dominant slider as his main offerings, and he’s also sidelined his less effective four-seamer. Garrett Whitlock has dialed back his sinker and introduced a new “bullet slider,” which moves vertically instead of horizontally like his sweeper and has helped the ground ball pitcher evolve into more of a swing-and-miss threat.

It’s obviously way too early to draw any solid conclusions on Bailey’s work, but the early returns have definitely been encouraging. If this improvement proves sustainable, the Red Sox ceiling could prove much higher than anyone thought.

Is it time to acknowledge Nick Pivetta is a solid top of the rotation starter? — Ray C.

Nick Pivetta has always been capable of dominating opposing lineups, and ever since he arrived in 2020 he’s shown flashes of greatness. Consistency has always been his problem, and the big question coming into this season was whether or not he’d be able to maintain the level of performance he displayed late last season.

So far it certainly seems like it.

Since the All-Star Break last year, Pivetta has been one of the most overpowering pitchers in baseball. He was one of only five pitchers in baseball who recorded more than 100 strikeouts in the second half, tallying 102 over his final 73.2 innings, and he did that despite eight of his 16 outings over that stretch coming in relief. He’s carried on those trends this year too, and through two starts he’s allowed only one run over 11 innings (0.82 ERA).

Pivetta has also benefitted from Bailey’s new pitching program just like his rotation-mates, so at this point it’s reasonable to say he’s not the same guy who got bumped from the rotation last May for poor performance. Is Pivetta a solid top of the rotation starter? He’s definitely pitching like one, and if he keeps it up then he’s going to get paid like one when he hits free agency this coming winter.

Is it more likely the Sox extend Pivetta or trade him at the deadline? — @YirmiyahuLaw

Now here’s the multi-million dollar question facing the Red Sox in the near future. Has Pivetta really leveled up and become a front-of-the-rotation guy? And whether he has or not, does he have a future with the organization?

If the Red Sox fall out of the playoff hunt, it’s a lot easier to imagine Pivetta being traded. He could presumably provide a boost to a playoff contender as a rental while allowing the Red Sox to get more value in return than just a compensatory draft pick. If the Red Sox actually are for real, however, then Pivetta will likely stick around through the end of the season. At that point it becomes a question of whether or not an extension is realistic.

Both sides have strong incentives to wait it out. Pivetta is going to be 32 at the start of next season, so this winter will probably be the best chance he ever gets to land a big multi-year contract that sets him and his family up for life. If he pitches well, he could potentially enter the winter as one of the top free agents on the market, so it would probably take a pretty enticing offer from the Red Sox to convince him not to test the waters. Nothing we’ve seen from the Red Sox over the past few years suggests the club will be willing to do that.

Maybe this is a cop out, but I think the answer to this question is neither. I suspect the Red Sox and Pivetta will strive to get the most out of their partnership this year, and once the dust settles in the fall both sides will assess the landscape and figure out their next move from there.

Does ownership pony up to extend Alex Cora? Would he stay if they did? — @DorvidGoldy

Alex Cora occupies a fascinating place within the Red Sox organization. On one hand, ownership thought highly enough of Cora to not only publicly assure he’d remain manager following Chaim Bloom’s firing, but to include him in the search for the club’s new head of baseball operations. As a result, the new executive (Craig Breslow, it turned out) would take the job knowing he wouldn’t be able to install his own manager.

On the other hand, the Red Sox have allowed Cora to enter the final year of his contract without a long-term deal. He is effectively a lame duck, and by season’s end either side could determine they’d be better off parting ways.

Cora’s future with the franchise will be a cloud looming over the organization throughout the season, and the financial component is an important part of the story as well. Craig Counsell effectively reset the market for managers by signing a historic five-year, $40 million contract with the Chicago Cubs this offseason, a deal that made him the highest-paid manager in history and will pay him $8 million a year. Cora, who is highly respected within the game and who has a World Series championship to his name, would no doubt command a similar deal, and if the Red Sox aren’t willing to give it to him, someone else will.

But let’s say the Red Sox do, would Cora take it? The manager has often expressed his appreciation to the franchise for giving him a second chance after his suspension stemming from the 2017 Houston Astros sign stealing scandal, and it’s clear he has a strong affinity for the city and close relationships with people throughout the organization. Those factors shouldn’t be discounted.

But the Red Sox also haven’t fielded a competitive roster the last two seasons and still appear to be in “build” mode. Given that Cora has admitted he doesn’t see himself managing 10 years from now, would he want to spend more of that time toiling on an extended rebuild, or would he prefer to take over a contender and try to get back into the World Series now?

I think at the end of the day the Red Sox and Cora will find a way to stick together, but it could ultimately come down to how this season plays out.

Why haven’t the Red Sox worn their blue alternate uniforms yet? And where is the Tim Wakefield patch?

This wasn’t actually a formal submission as much as it was a conversation I’ve had with some fans on Twitter this past week, but I figured it was worth addressing with the wider Herald audience as well. Basically, several observers recently noted that the Red Sox haven’t been wearing the new Tim Wakefield “49” patch on the season-opening road trip, and also that the blue road alternate uniforms weren’t featured through the first week of games.

The second observation was particularly noteworthy given that amid Nike and Fanatics’ disastrous rollout of MLB’s new uniforms, several clubs haven’t received all of their alternate uniforms yet. The St. Louis Cardinals, for instance, reportedly won’t get either their Saturday home ivory or road blue alternates until possibly as late as June. Were the Red Sox experiencing similar problems?

I reached out to the team and was told by a club spokesperson that the Red Sox haven’t experienced any such delays and they’ve received all of their uniforms for the season. I was also told the plan is to debut the Wakefield patch at Tuesday’s home opener, when Wakefield and his wife Stacy will be honored as part of the pregame festivities. Presumably the patches will be worn throughout the season after that.

As far as why the blues have become less prominent, Cora indicated this past fall that they planned to introduce more structure with the uniforms this season compared to past years. Basically, the club will wear either their home whites or road grays on Sunday through Thursday, their red or blue alternates on Friday and the yellow City Connect uniforms at home on Saturdays.

The Red Sox have followed that blueprint so far, with the exception of last Friday in Seattle, when the Mariners wore their own blue alternates, which likely necessitated the Red Sox wear gray. Right on cue, the club debuted the blue alternates for Friday night’s game in Anaheim.

Now, let’s finish up with a real question, one I enjoyed answering far more than I should have.

In honor of WrestleMania 40, which Red Sox players would make good heel pro wrestlers? Who makes your list? — Ed H.

Man, what a great thought exercise. I don’t think there are any obvious candidates on this year’s team — besides maybe Josh Winckowski, who made himself a heel in Chicago after bagging on Wrigley Field a couple years back — but over the years the Red Sox have definitely had a few. Josh Beckett and John Lackey weren’t known for being warm and cuddly and David Price’s “I hold all the cards” promo after the 2018 World Series was straight out of a WWE script.

Those would be some of the popular choices, but after thinking way too long and hard about it I came up with an even better answer. The question is who would make a good heel pro wrestler, not necessarily who acted most like one, so by that standard I think there is one obvious candidate who stands head and shoulders above the rest.

David Ortiz.

What makes a good heel? Someone who is larger than life, dripping with charisma and, in many cases, an overwhelming physical presence. That’s Big Papi, and just because he’s worked babyface his entire Red Sox career doesn’t mean he wouldn’t make an incredible heel if he ever decided to make a late-career turn like Hulk Hogan at Bash at the Beach ’95.

Imagine, Ortiz shows up at Fenway Park sometime this season to a hero’s welcome, only to turn around and powerbomb Wally through a conspicuously placed table. Then he dramatically rips off his Red Sox jersey to reveal a Yankees shirt underneath and teams up with Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez to form MLB’s new most dominant faction — the “Evil Empire.”

Fans would boo. Children would cry. But just like The Rock on this year’s road to WrestleMania, Ortiz’s appearances would become must-see TV. That’s the power of a great heel, and I think Ortiz could be one of the best if he ever felt compelled to change things up.