Saharan dust moves in this week

July 27, 6 a.m.

A large plume of Saharan dust will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors. Most of us will just notice a change to the color of the sky, but if you notice any health impacts, you may want to consider reducing your outdoor exposure through the end of the week.

In addition to the Saharan dust, we’re monitoring a tropical wave that has moved off the coast of Africa that has a medium chance (40%) of development later this week into early next week when it tracks closer to the Lesser Antilles and moves into an area of decreased wind shear in the central Atlantic.

July 26, 6 a.m.

A large plume of Saharan dust will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors. Most of us will just notice a change to the color of the sky, but if you notice any health impacts, you may want to consider reducing your outdoor exposure through the end of the week.

In addition to the Saharan dust, we’re monitoring two low pressure centers in the Atlantic basin with low chances for development over the next 7 days.

July 25, 6 a.m.

We are monitoring a large plume of Saharan dust that is moving into the Gulf of Mexico and headed our way this week. The dust will arrive late Tuesday and will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors.

In addition to the Saharan dust, we’re monitoring two low pressure centers in the Atlantic basin with low chances for development over the next 7 days.

July 24, 6 a.m.

We are monitoring a large plume of Saharan dust that is moving into the Gulf of Mexico and headed our way this week. The dust will arrive late Tuesday and will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors.

We are also keeping an eye on a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean. Development odds are down to just 20% over the next seven days as the storm encounters more shear and Saharan dust.

July 23, 10 a.m.

The main point of interest in the tropics for Texas is the plume of Saharan dust that is moving into the Gulf of Mexico and headed our way this week. The dust will arrive late Tuesday and will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors.

We are also keeping an eye on a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean. Development odds are down to just 40% over the next seven days as the storm encounters more shear and Saharan dust.

Last but not least, we briefly saw our first hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic season last night, as Don briefly strengthened into a hurricane in the open Atlantic. It’s already back down to a Tropical Storm and poses no threat to the U.S.

July 22, 10 a.m.

We’re monitoring a tropical wave that is moving toward the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center now has a 70% chance of development over the next seven days. There’s no immediate threat to Texas, but we’ll continue to watch this system for any signs that it may head into the Gulf. For now, most models are showing the storm eventually moving into Central America.

We’ve also got our eyes on some Saharan Dust, which should move into Houston by midweek and stick around through the upcoming work week.

July 21, 1 p.m.

In addition to our plume of Saharan dust expected to impact us next week, we’re keeping an eye on a tropical wave in the Atlantic that could develop into our next named storm. Right now, the NHC has development odds at 40% over the next two days and 60% over the next 7 days. There is no immediate threat to Texas, and it’s unlikely this wave even makes it into the Gulf. Just a system we’re keeping an eye on.

July 21, 6 a.m.

We are tracking a thick plume of Saharan dust that is likely to impact us next week. We are also monitoring a new tropical wave that could develop as it moves toward the Caribbean. Formation odds are low for now at 30% during the next seven days.

July 20, 6 a.m.

We are tracking a thick plume of Saharan dust that is likely to impact us next week. We are also monitoring a new tropical wave that could develop as it moves toward the Caribbean. Formation odds are low for now at 20% during the next 7 days.

July 19, 6 a.m.

We are tracking a thick Saharan dust cloud expected to arrive early next week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Don in the north-central Atlantic is no threat to land.

Tropical Storm Calvin in the Pacific is expected to approach the Hawaiian Islands Wednesday, bringing some rain, high winds, and rough surf.

July 18, 6 a.m.

We are tracking more Saharan dust arriving next week. A thicker plume is expected to arrive early next week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Don in the north-central Atlantic is no threat to land.

Tropical Storm Calvin in the Pacific is expected to approach the Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night, bringing some rain, high winds, and rough surf.

July 17, 6 a.m.

We are tracking more Saharan dust arriving this week. Meanwhile, Subtropical Depression Don in the north-central Atlantic is no threat to land.

Tropical Storm Calvin in the Pacific is expected to approach the Hawaiian Islands this week and could eventually bring some rain and high winds.

July 16, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Calvin is making its way toward Hawaii and could impact the islands Wednesday and Thursday. The good news is that the storm is weakening as it moves that way.

Closer to home, we’re watching a thin layer of Saharan dust that could lead to some haze and asthma flare-ups.

July 15, 6 a.m.

You may notice a bit of haze this weekend in Houston, in particular on Sunday, as a light plume of Saharan dust moves in.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, we’re watching Sub-tropical storm Don, which is weakening and will have no impact on the US. Meanwhile, in the Pacific, Hurricane Calvin could bring some rain and winds to Hawaii by the middle of next week, though it will no longer be hurricane-strength at that point.

July 14, 6 a.m.

A light Saharan haze will fill the sky over Houston Friday, but we’ll be monitoring a thicker plume early next week

Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Don has formed in the Central Atlantic. This system is expected to remain over the Atlantic waters and have no threat to land.

Hurricane Calvin in the Pacific is strengthening. This system is expected to approach the Hawaiian islands early next week. It is too early to specify details regarding impacts to the islands; however, the likelihood of impacts could begin as early as Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Impacts to the state could include high surf, heavy rain, strong winds, or all of the above.

July 13, 6 a.m.

A small are of low pressure over the central Atlantic remains favorable for tropical development. The NHC gives this system a medium (60%) chance of formation during the next 7 days. This system is not expected to threaten the U.S.

We are also monitoring our first Saharan dust cloud of the season, which looks to bring an initial round of dust to Houston early next week.

July 12, 6 a.m.

A small area of low pressure over the central Atlantic remains favorable for tropical development. The NHC gives this system a medium (50%) chance of formation during the next 7 days.

We are also monitoring our first Saharan dust cloud of the season, which looks to bring an initial round of dust to Houston on Friday, with more of the haze to come next week.

July 11, 6 a.m.

There is a medium (50%) chance for tropical development during the next 7 days in the central Atlantic along a stalled out front that will be in the area. If a tropical system were to form, direct impacts on land are not expected.

In the East Pacific, we are continuing to watch one area off the southern coast of Mexico that has a high risk (90%) of developing over the next few days. If a tropical system develops, it is expected to drift west-northwest into open waters, not impacting the U.S. or Mexico.

July 10, 6 a.m.

The storm complex in the Atlantic that we’ve been monitoring is now up to a 30% chance of development over the next 7 days. The good news is that the storm is headed east, away from the U.S., and it poses zero threat to us.

July 9, 6 a.m.

Still no ongoing tropical systems in the Atlantic, but we are monitoring one area of potential development in the Atlantic. It has a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days but no chance of impact in the Gulf.

July 8, 6 a.m.

All is quiet throughout the entirety of the Atlantic Basic, with no current storms nor any expected development over the next seven days. We still need to stay vigilant as anomalously warm waters in the main development region as well as in the Gulf, could quickly spin up a storm.

July 6, 6 a.m.

Another surge of tropical moisture will allow for more rounds of scattered showers and storms Thursday, but that’s about it in terms of any “tropical” impacts expected over the next few days. Both the Atlantic and Gulf are quiet in terms of any organized tropical systems, with no development expected over the next seven days.

July 5, 6 a.m.

While Houston will play host to some tropical thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, no organized tropical development is expected over the next seven days. This is mainly thanks to plumes of Saharan dust traversing the Atlantic this week, and no tropical development is expected this week.

July 4, 6 a.m.

With a few plumes of Saharan dust expected to traverse the Atlantic this week, no tropical development is expected this week. Locally though, warm gulf waters and a sea breeze could fuel some showers and storms Tuesday through Thursday.

July 3, 6 a.m.

The Atlantic Basin remains just the way we like it, quiet! We do have some very warm waters that could act as fuel for any storms, but there’s nothing in the immediate future that is expected to form. A batch of Saharan Dust is worth watching as it makes its way across the Atlantic, but no major impacts are expected.

July 2, 6 a.m.

In the short term there’s nothing brewing in the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic waters. We’re watching a batch of Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic, which could reach Houston in about a week’s time.

July 1, 6 a.m.

All is quiet across the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Basin in general, with no active storms and no areas of potential development. We are watching two storms in the Eastern Pacific, Adrian, and Beatriz, the latter of which could bring such unsettled weather to the popular vacation destination of Cabo San Lucas in Mexico.

June 30, 6 a.m.

We are continuing to keep an eye on an area of disorganized showers and storms southeast of Bermuda. This area should develop into a broad area of low pressure, but it will be heading into an unfavorable environment for development which is why it only has a low chance of development as it moves north.

June 28, 6 a.m.

We have two areas of disorganized showers and storms in the Atlantic. The first are the remnants of Cindy and are not expected to develop. The second is southeast of Bermuda and has a low chance of development as it moves northward over the next seven days.

June 27, 6 a.m.

Remnants of Cindy are producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Atlantic. This system has a low probability (30%) of tropical development over the next seven days. It is expected to move generally northward over the western Atlantic, passing near Bermuda on Thursday.

June 26, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Cindy has weakened over the Central Atlantic. No other tropical development is expected at this time.

June 25, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Bret has faded away, and Tropical Storm Cindy is soon to follow. Neither storms are a threat to the United States.

June 24, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Bret is weakening as it moves into higher shear in the eastern Caribbean and will likely be just remnants of a storm by tomorrow. Right on Bret’s heels is Tropical Storm Cindy, which currently has max sustained winds of 60mph. Cindy is moving west-northwest and will soon weaken as it curves into the open Atlantic. Neither storm is a threat to Houston and is unlikely to have any direct impact on the US at all.

June 23, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Bret has moved into the eastern Caribbean but continues to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles. The storm is now entering a region of much higher wind shear. As a result, Bret is expected to lose wind intensity and transition to a tropical depression over the weekend as it tracks through the central Caribbean.

Besides Tropical Storm Bret, Tropical Storm Cindy has formed in the central Atlantic. Most models indicate this storm will begin to move more northwestward over the next day or so and will curve northward and miss the Leeward islands.

June 22, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Bret is getting stronger, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph with higher gusts. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for St. Lucia, along with Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for other parts of the Lesser Antilles. Strong winds and heavy rains are expected for portions of the Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

Tropical Depression Four formed in the Central Atlantic. It is moving toward the west near 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to strengthen and become Cindy. This system is expected to remain east of the northern Leeward Islands through the weekend.

June 21, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Bret is getting stronger, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph with higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength is possible before Bret reaches the Caribbean Sea. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia.

A tropical wave just east of Bret is still disorganized, but conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form later this week while the system moves westward. Formation odds have increased to 80% during the next seven days.

June 20, 5 a.m.

Tropical Storm Bret is expected to strengthen as it moves west towards the Lesser Antilles.

Bret is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the Caribbean, and there is only one other hurricane on record to form east of the Caribbean in June. That hurricane occurred in 1933 and went on to become the most active hurricane season on record in the pre-satellite era. Bret is not a threat to Texas at this time.

A tropical wave just east of Bret is still disorganized, but conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form later this week while the system moves westward-formation odds up to 70% during the next seven days.

June 19, 3:45 p.m.

It’s official: Tropical Storm Bret has formed in the deep tropics well east of the Caribbean. It is highly unusual for a storm to form this far out in the Atlantic at this time of year because, normally the waters are still too cool to support development. This year it’s a different story, with water already as warm as it typically is the first week of September!

Bret is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the Caribbean, and there is only one other hurricane on record to form east of the Caribbean in June. That hurricane occurred in 1933 and went on to become the most active hurricane season on record in the pre-satellite era.

Bret is not a threat to Texas at this time.

June 19, 10:30 a.m.

As of 10 a.m., we now have Tropical Depression Three, a tropical system that could become named Storm Bret by the end of the day Monday. This depression is currently located near the Lesser Antilles and is expected to strengthen throughout the day Monday, potentially becoming Tropical Storm Bret by the end of the day. The current extended forecast track has this system approaching the eastern Caribbean by week’s end, though echoing that this track is still highly variable. No threat to Houston as of now.

Aside from this system, there is another wave behind Three which we do not expect any development in the near term. The wave has a 30& chance of development over the next 48 hours 40% chance over the next seven days.

June 19

There are a couple of tropical waves that we are monitoring. A fairly robust wave continues to organize a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. This wave has a 90% chance of development over the next couple of days. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form as this system moves to the west between 15 to 20 mph. No forecast models currently bring the storm into the Gulf, so it is not a concern to Texans.

Aside from this system, there is another wave behind the previous one, which we do not expect any development in in the near term.

June 18, 11 a.m. update

The tropical wave we’ve been watching in the eastern Atlantic is now up to a 90% chance of development over the next seven days. This will likely become Tropical Storm Bret in the coming days. No forecast models currently bring the storm into the Gulf, so it is not a concern to Texans, just a storm we’ll be monitoring.

June 17, 11 a.m. update

We’re still watching a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that has now been tagged by the National Hurricane Center as “invest 92-L”, which is just a potential system that they will begin forecasting for. The storm is up to an 80% chance of development in the next seven days, though it is extremely unlikely to have any impact here in Texas.

June 16, 7 p.m. update

The tropical wave off the coast of Africa now has a high (70%) chance of development over the next seven days. While we expect zero impacts here in Texas, its development may signal a more active season ahead than originally predicted by seasonal hurricane forecasters.

June 16

We’re monitoring a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that is now up to a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days. This potential storm is not at all cause for concern for Houston-area readers, as it’s still very far out. It’s just a typical wave that bears watching in the coming days, something we’ll do many times over with many similar waves as we progress through hurricane season.

June 15

Nothing is threatening to develop at this time, but we are seeing some Saharan dust in the eastern Atlantic. This dust is not expected to move into southeast Texas.

June 14

Nothing is threatening to develop at this time, but sea surface temperatures are rapidly rising and considerably warmer than average for this time of year.

June 13

Despite warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Basin, the tropics remain quiet for now. There is no tropical development expected in the next seven days.

June 12

Quiet conditions remain across the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Basin. There is no tropical development expected in the next seven days.

June 11

Despite warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Basin, we remain storm-free. There is no tropical development expected in the next seven days.

June 10

El Nino has officially arrived! An El Nino is typically identified by warmer than average waters in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific and tends to create higher wind shear during hurricane season, which in turn can help to limit tropical development. That being said, our sea surface temperatures remain extremely high, and an average hurricane season is expected. There is no tropical development expected in the next 7 days.

June 9

The Atlantic Basin is quiet, and no tropical development is expected through the next seven days.

June 8

The swirl of low pressure near the Azores no longer looks favorable for development. The Atlantic Basin is quiet, and no development is expected to occur during the next seven days.

June 7

The showers and thunderstorms located near the eastern Azores remain disorganized for now. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 10 percent chance for development during the next seven days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it drifts to the east of the Azores.

June 6

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather located between the Azores and Canary Islands. At this point, showers and thunderstorms are disorganized and the NHC is giving this system a 10% chance for development during the next seven days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it drifts to the southeast and east of the Azores.

June 5

There are no organized systems in the Atlantic Basin for now. What is left of Arlene will continue to shift east of the Bahamas today. Tropical development is not expected during the next seven days.

June 3, 4 p.m. update

Arlene was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone Saturday evening as the system approached Cuba. The 4 p.m. CT update will likely be the last one specifically for Arlene.

June 3, 11 a.m. update

Tropical Storm Arlene is now down to “Tropical Depression Arlene” after encountering the expected high shear and dry air, which has eroded the storm. No further strengthening is expected as Arlene moves north of Cuba.

June 3, 5 a.m. update

Tropical Storm Arlene continues to spin in the eastern Atlantic. The storm is moving southeast at 9 mph on its journey toward Cuba, but as it enters a higher-shear environment, it is expected to weaken. Arlene will likely be back down to a tropical depression later today-no impacts for Texas.

June 2, 12:40 p.m. update

Tropical Depression 2 is now Tropical Storm Arlene. Hurricane Hunters found strong enough winds to barely clear the threshold for a named storm. Nothing has changed regarding the forecast from our previous update.

June 2, 4 a.m. update

Tropical Depression 2 remains a weak and highly sheared system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. TD2 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is drifting south at 5mph into an environment with even more wind shear. That shear will keep this system from strengthening significantly, and while it may briefly become Tropical Storm Arlene, it looks more likely to stay a tropical depression before falling apart this weekend. There’s no threat to Texas, but some parts of Florida could see a few inches of rain as the system weakens and drifts south.

June 1, 4 p.m. update

Tropical Depression 2 is expected to become Tropical Storm Arlene briefly. The steering currents will push it south, where a combo of dry air and high wind shear will tear it apart on its way to Cuba this weekend.

June 1, 3:30 p.m. update

Well, that didn’t take long. On the first day of hurricane season, we have a newly formed tropical depression over the Gulf near Florida. The first forecast from the National Hurricane Center will come out by 4 p.m., but the steering currents should keep it far away from Texas.

June 1, 7:45 a.m. update

We are watching an area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf. Showers and storms associated with this low have shown some better organization over the past 12 hours. The National Hurricane Center has given this system a 50% chance of development in the next two days. Regardless of development, this system should continue to bring on and off heavy rain to the Florida Peninsula. There is no threat to Texas with this system.

The federal agency announced its forecast of 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine becoming hurricanes and one to four powering into major hurricanes with winds greater than 110 mph. Normal is 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three of them major hurricanes. NOAA has given us a 40% chance of having a near-normal season.

Hurricane season officially begins June 1 (although storms have been known to form before the start of the season).

RADAR MAPS:

Southeast Texas

Houston

Harris County

Galveston County

Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties

Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties

Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

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