Broncos Mailbag: Is Sean Payton’s team going to bounce back? Tank? Or just end up being bad and boring?

Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.

I am so glad that someone else has Russell Wilson. He had his time here in Seattle. The worst thing about it is, that no matter bad (he plays), he’ll still get a big fat paycheck. Glad he’s a Bronco.

— John Edwards, Auburn, Wash.

Funny enough, John, I watched Seattle QB Drew Lock hit Noah Fant for 51 yards and two of the players drafted with picks acquired in the Russell Wilson trade — CB Devon Witherspoon and OLB Boye Mafe — dominate against the New York Giants on Monday Night Football as I wrote this mailbag. There’s no argument here that Seattle’s won the trade resoundingly. You’ll also get no argument from me that Wilson’s five-year, $245 million extension is going to be problematic at some point for the Broncos.

At the same time, Wilson once again looks like a pretty darn good player. His quarterback rating through four games is 106.7 (tied for third in the NFL), his advanced metrics are really good and he’s on pace for 38 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Again, you can’t fully separate the player from the acquisition and contract costs, but the Broncos are happy with the way Wilson’s playing quarterback in 2023. If he does this a couple more years and if the Broncos win some games, they’ll be able to take some solace, at least.

At this point Wilson is the least of the Broncos’ problems. In fact, he’s been among their best players so far this fall. But the capital in picks, players and cap space it took to acquire and extend him are part of the problem and will continue to be. What do you do about that?

Hey Parker, how do we fix our awful pass coverage? It felt like until our pass rush actually began working in the second half, every receiver just seemed completely wide open. Is it Vance Joseph’s lack of creativity in his packages? Our defensive backs’ lack of talent outside of our top guys (Pat Surtain II and Justin Simmons)?

— Mike, Denver

Yeah, great question, Mike. The numbers are strikingly bad. They’re allowing opposing quarterbacks to play to a 133.4 rating. How is that even possible? Opposing quarterbacks are completing 78.1% of their passes, the worst defensive rate in the NFL. Denver’s allowed 13 touchdown passes, worst in the NFL, and 8.4 net yards per attempt, also worst in the NFL.

One of the basic tenets of defensive football is that rush and coverage work together. The Broncos have been inconsistent in both. When you don’t get heat on a quarterback in the NFL, he picks you apart. And when you give up quick completions in coverage, you don’t get heat on the quarterback. Certainly injuries have played a role. Justin Simmons’ absence has been notable, especially because Caden Sterns and P.J. Locke are also out. But the Broncos have really missed nickel K’Waun Williams, one of the most underrated players on last year’s unit. He’s an all-around player. He can cover, he defends the run and he’s a good blitzer.

But this performance is more than just a couple key guys being out. They need better play out of corner Damarri Mathis and whoever’s playing nickel. They need more pass-rush, especially from D.J. Jones and Zach Allen on the interior. And they need defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to figure out, quickly, what the group does best and how to maximize that. Are they slow enough overall that Joseph has to sit back in these soft zones so often? Maybe, but you’re going to have to gamble and play man more at some point. Can he tilt even more help away from Pat Surtain II? Or fully have him travel around the field with an opposing team’s best receiver? We’ll find out.

Can the Broncos carry that fourth-quarter momentum up into next week against the Jets? My super optimistic self is hopeful Week 4’s win will be like the 24-point comeback win over the Chargers during Peyton Manning’s first year here. But realistically, can Sean Payton turn this team around to an 8-9 team this year? Russell Wilson is looking solid now that we’re playing him to his strengths. We have weapons at our skill positions. Our defense? Well…

What do you think?

— Vernon, Westminster

Thanks for writing in, Vernon. It’s always easier to be optimistic after a win, right? Even an ugly one that looked like a blowout in the making at one point. And sure, I think it’s possible. Likely? Let’s talk again in a couple of weeks.

The Jets will be a bigger challenge than the Bears. Then three of the four after that are against Kansas City and Buffalo. Without a major upset against one of those two teams, wins against New York and Green Bay only get you to 3-6 by Nov. 13.

You can squint at the schedule and dream up a second-half surge, but the worse the next six weeks on the calendar go, the less likely that is. Or, maybe I’ll take your optimistic tone and say the better the next six weeks go, the more likely that feels.

Not wanting to rain on the parade, but if not for a Hail Mary attempt to close the half, it would be the second week in a row we allow the opposing QB no incompletions in the first half. They scored four touchdowns on their first six possessions (it speaks to the preparation again), we allowed Justin Fields’ first 300-plus yards of his career along with his first four-TD game of his career and we again are inches away from not seeing the ball back on offense after tying the game with almost seven minutes left. All of that following a 70-point, 726-yard game, and two games out of the first three without a sack or forcing a turnover. Next are the Chiefs, Bills, Chargers. So tell us, Parker, why should the fans still believe we can achieve something this season? Does Sean Payton really think he can turn things around with this defense? It’s nothing personal against Vance Joseph but I’ve never seen a defense this bad on such a consistent basis.

P.S. Glad we got the W, and let it stand for Wilson.

— Yoann, Beine-Nauroy, France

Yoann! Did you not read the previous answer and come away feeling like the glass might be half full? Ok, kidding. The Broncos definitely have problems. One win against a winless team doesn’t solve them.

I will say, though, it’s easy to do the “inches away from not seeing the ball back” game too much in the NFL. So many games are decided by so few points. They were one Wil Lutz kick away from beating Las Vegas and maybe one third-down stop — or pass interference penalty — from potentially beating Washington. It’s all about wins and losses at the end of the day.

Bottom line: If the defense improves, the Broncos have a chance to make something of a run. Jacksonville was 2-6 last year, looked pretty darn bad, you’ll remember, in the London loss against the Broncos and then made the playoffs. The Broncos’ defense was lights out for half a season last year, faded substantially over the second half and, in the words of leading tackler Alex Singleton, “I would argue our last three weeks last year we sucked.”

The bad news, of course, is that this year’s been a continuation of that. The good news is things change in the NFL. Doesn’t mean they definitely will.

This is to the team: Why are you the way that you are?

— Cody, Vernal, Utah

Did you know that Sean Payton’s parents are from Scranton, Pennsylvania? Maybe they’ve hung out with Michael Scott.

Like many others, I was wondering how long Vance Joseph is going to keep his job after the Miami meltdown. But firing him makes little sense unless they have a replacement, even if it’s in house. So, who on the defensive staff might take over if VJ is canned? Would it be at all reasonable to hire someone from outside mid-season? Would Wade Phillips come out of retirement? Would Rex Ryan leave his microphone for a whistle?

— Fred Waiss, Prairie du Chien, Wis.

Well, Rex Ryan’s griping about not getting the job on a weekly basis at this point, so maybe he would jump at the chance. Or maybe it’s easy to say he’d have Denver No. 1 in the NFL from the comfort of a television studio. There just isn’t much sense in pulling somebody out of retirement or back into the game for the first time in (checks notes) seven years in the middle of a season.

Joseph also worked for Phillips and considers him a mentor. Phillips called Joseph last week to impart words of support after the Dolphins’ 70-20 romp.

There’s no doubt Joseph’s group needs to improve. It’s always a little strange speculating about potential replacements for a guy who still has his job. So without dwelling on a theoretical candidate list for too long, suffice it to say Payton wouldn’t have to go outside his own staff to find familiar veteran options — inside linebackers coach Greg Manusky has been a coordinator in several places and Joe Vitt goes way back with Payton — or a young, talented guy who could get an audition like secondary coach Christian Parker. Remember, though, everybody involved is hands-on with this group currently. And the best option for all of them is improvement over the coming weeks.

Are the Broncos collapsing for Caleb Williams as people accused Miami of tanking for Tua Tagovailoa?

— Julie Filson, Lakewood