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The Labour leader will address his party for the first time since their win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West last week, where new MP Michael Shanks got more than twice as many votes as the SNP’s candidate Katy Loudon.
The win, which was hailed as “seismic” by Sir Keir, would catapult Labour to be the largest party in Scotland at the next general election if it was replicated elsewhere, according to analysts.
Sir Keir will tell his party’s faithful in Liverpool: “Scotland can lead the way to a Labour Government, but be under no illusions – we must earn every vote.
“And we must understand that the Scottish people are not just looking at us, they’re also looking at Britain.
“The challenge of change remains but, nonetheless, conference for the first time in a long time we can see a tide that is turning. Four nations that are renewing.
“Old wounds of division – exploited by the Tories and the SNP – beginning to heal. So let the message from Rutherglen and Hamilton West ring out across Britain.
“Labour serves working people in Scotland because Labour serves working people across all these islands.”
Sir Keir’s comments also come in the days after his party set its sights on the 2026 Holyrood election, with a Panelbase poll of more than 1,000 Scots, suggesting Scottish Labour could be the largest party, sending leader Anas Sarwar to Bute House.
Speaking ahead of the speech, SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn said the people of Scotland “want to see real change and real help with the cost of living” and not “more Tory cuts imposed by a timid, Tory-lite Labour Party”.
He added: “Sir Keir Starmer has the opportunity today to change tack and back the SNP’s calls for a major cost-of-living support package at the autumn budget – including mortgage interest relief, a £400 energy bill rebate, and action to reduce food prices in supermarkets.
“These are the kind of bold measures needed to boost household incomes and reverse rising poverty – and governments around the world are already implementing them, showing what independent countries of Scotland’s size can achieve.
“The SNP will continue to push the Tories and Labour Party to back urgent help to tackle the cost-of-living crisis.
“With every day Westminster fails to act, it is showing why Scotland needs independence to help families and boost the economy.”
Analysis of tonight’s poll found that Labour has significantly narrowed the gap with the SNP and is forecast to gain seats across Scotland and form a majority government at Westminster.
The Fabian Society assessment of the YouGov survey data puts Labour at 31%, with the SNP at 33%.
Labour’s current support includes 17% of people who voted SNP in 2019, which comes after the Scottish Fabians previously calculated that Labour needs the backing of one-in-five of those who voted SNP or Green to win 25 target seats across Scotland and form a majority government.
The poll also presented various possible scenarios to participants with a Labour majority government emerging as the most popular outcome in Scotland.
Labour also had far fewer respondents who said they would never consider voting for the party (28%), compared to 45% who said the same about the SNP and 61% who said they would never consider voting for the Conservatives.
Previous Scottish Fabians analysis identified 25 seats in Scotland that form part of the 150 most likely target seats across Great Britain – based on the old boundaries. They are all currently held by the SNP, apart from Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
Winning most or all of these Scottish target seats is crucial for Labour, as it makes the path to power in Westminster much easier.
Katherine Sangster, national director of the Scottish Fabians, said; “Following the victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, this research shows Labour is well positioned to win target seats across Scotland at the next election.
“Labour is making significant progress in rebuilding the ‘first red wall’, with key voter groups either intending to vote Labour or open to doing so – and they want a majority Labour government after the next election.
“There remains more to do for Labour to convert support into votes at the ballot box, and there is an obvious group to persuade: those who prefer a majority Labour government but aren’t yet backing the party.”
A total of 1003 over 18s took part in the online YouGov survey with fieldwork undertaken between October 2 and October 6.
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