Stocks are struggling even after earnings beats this season, Deutsche Bank says
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Investors seem unimpressed by this earnings season’s results. The reporting period is about halfway through, and results have generally been stronger than expected. Of the more than 250 S & P 500 companies that have reported, about 81% have reported positive surprises, according to FactSet data. However, individual stocks are struggling to perform following a quarterly beat, an “unusual” move, according to Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha. “The market rally so far is running ahead of that in a typical earnings season at this stage,” Chadha wrote Friday. “But companies beating are not being rewarded on average.” He noted that companies topping earnings per share estimates have underperformed the S & P 500 by a median 0.5 percentage point on the day of reporting, “which is quite unusual and contrasts with the median 0.5pp outperformance historically.” Companies that miss expectations have been more severely punished, too. Those names have lagged the broader market by 1.9 percentage points. That’s more than the historical norm of 1.6 percentage points. Meanwhile, the S & P 500 is higher by roughly 1.6% at the midway point of earnings season, which is above the 1.1% advance typically made through this time, the strategist said. Stocks are usually higher by 2% on average by the end of the full earnings season. Even so, Chadha noted individual beats are actually lackluster. Chadha is not the only strategist on Wall Street to point out the discrepancy. Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin said in a note recently that companies beating expectations are not getting rewarded. He said, “On the day after releasing results, stocks beating consensus expectations underperformed by a greater amount than almost any time during the past 18 years.” — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
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