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The AFL draft is a time of hope like no other part of the calendar, as the league’s cellar-dwellers look for the one player who could eventually take them to the promised land.
This year’s lead-up to draft night has been dominated by trade chatter surrounding the consensus No.1 pick Harley Reid, who is viewed by many experts as a generational talent.
As things stand, Reid will be heading to the West Coast Eagles, but several clubs inside the top 10, namely Melbourne and North Melbourne, have attempted to trade up to the prized selection. The Kangaroos head into the draft with the most powerful hand, boasting five first-round picks.
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The question is whether trading up to select Reid, a Victorian native, is worth it.
A look throughout the history of the AFL draft shows that the No.1 selection has been somewhat of a poisoned chalice since the draft as we know it began in 1986.
Brisbane held the prized selection that year, and selected Martin Leslie, who ended up playing 107 games for the club.
Leslie was far from the best player in that draft, with that distinction going to a player selected 49 picks later, Fitzroy and eventual Brisbane Lions great Alastair Lynch, who played 306 games, kicked 633 goals and won three premierships.
Reid may end up being a special player, but whether he’s worth parting ways with multiple selections is the question the Kangaroos brains trust would be debating right now.
In the 37 years that have followed the 1986 draft, just five No.1 picks have been selected to multiple All-Australian teams: Darren Gaspar (picked No.1 in 1993), Nick Riewoldt (2000), Luke Hodge (2001), Brendon Goddard (2002) and Brett Deledio (2004). For comparison’s sake, the No.40 selection has yielded the same amount of multiple All-Australians.
If we include Leslie, who was named to the 1988 All-Australian team while playing for Port Adelaide in the SANFL, there has been a total of 12 players to make at least one All-Australian team.
Simply put, if you’re selecting at the top of the draft, based on history there is 68 per cent chance that the player whose name you read out won’t ever make an All-Australian team.
Just four players selected first overall: Riewoldt, Hodge, Goddard and Marc Murphy (2005) have played 300 or more AFL games. Thirteen players, including the aforementioned quartet, have played 200 or more.
History makes for even more grim reading when it comes to premiership wins from former No.1 picks.
There have been just four players in 37 years to have won a premiership after being selected No.1 overall: Drew Banfield (1992), Des Headland (1998), Hodge and Tom Boyd (2016). Of the quartet, only Hodge and Banfield won more than one premiership.
Incredibly, just one No.1 pick has won the Brownlow Medal: Adam Cooney, who was taken at the top of the 2003 draft by the Western Bulldogs.
The No.1 pick lived up to the potential around the turn of the century with Riewoldt, Hodge and Goddard all ending up being champions of their respective clubs.
Recent history not been as kind to the No.1 pick. Of the last decade of drafts, Sam Walsh is the only No.1 pick who stands out as the best player in his class, and even he has strong competition in the form of Port Adelaide duo Zak Butters and Connor Rozee.
The Kangaroos, who have won a combined nine games in three years, would be well-advised to look at how Hawthorn approached the 2004 draft as they contemplate trading up for Reid.
After receiving a priority pick, the Hawks came into the draft with a powerful hand, boasting three picks inside the top 10.
That year, Deledio was touted as the can’t-miss prospect, and was widely considered a no-brainer pick at No.1 by Richmond.
Hawthorn, with its three selections, took home Jarryd Roughead (2nd), Lance Franklin (5th) and Jordan Lewis (7th).
Deledio enjoyed a fine AFL career, playing 275 games, making two All-Australian teams and winning two club best and fairest awards.
The Hawks trio in comparison, played a combined 956 games, made a total of 11 All-Australian teams, and won a combined 10 premierships.
The man in charge of Hawthorn during that famous draft? Current North Melbourne coach Alastair Clarkson.
Over to you, Clarko.
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