‘How the hell does that even happen?’ McCarthy exits Congress amid confusion over who can run to replace him

Months after a humiliating vote by his own party to oust him as speaker of the House, longtime GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy is days away from exiting Congress on Dec. 31, leaving confusion over who is eligible to run for his seat in a conservative Central Valley district.

A dozen people have jumped into the race, but McCarthy’s chosen Republican successor was barred from the ballot and on Friday sued the California secretary of state in an attempt to reverse the decision. Giddy Democrats are sending out fundraising emails saying McCarthy’s protege will “be mired in legal challenges for weeks.” Bakersfield locals are grumbling about the chaos. Political professionals are aghast at the mess.

It’s hardly the succession plan expected for McCarthy, who built his power over two decades as a masterful tactician of electoral politics who helped Republicans win control of the House in the pivotal 2010 election and again in 2022.

McCarthy climbed the ranks by recruiting candidates, studying political maps and raising money. When conservative commentator Fred Barnes predicted in 2010 that McCarthy would become speaker some day, he wrote, “He’ll be fixated on how to win more elections, more often.”

But after McCarthy announced his retirement in early December, his allies in Bakersfield popped a series of surprises.

First, McCarthy’s former staff member, Republican Assemblyman Vince Fong, said he would not run for Congress and instead would seek reelection to his Bakersfield seat in the state Assembly. Fong’s announcement cleared the way for another McCarthy ally, GOP state Sen. Shannon Grove, to enter the race — but then she too said she wouldn’t run. Fong then changed his mind and filed to run, only to be barred from the ballot by California Secretary of State Shirley Weber, a Democrat, who said state law prohibits candidates from running for two offices in one election.

“It would be important to Kevin that succession for that seat remain in the political family,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist who knows Fong but is not working for his campaign.

The chaos was eye-opening for constituents in the 20th Congressional District, who have become accustomed to having powerful, longtime members of Congress protecting the interests of the heavily agricultural San Joaquin Valley. The March 5 primary will be the district’s first election without an incumbent candidate since 2006, and only the second since 1978.

“This is a conservative district, so voters are going to look for somebody who is focused on representing the area the way Kevin has,” said Jim Brulte, the former chair of the California Republican Party. “The people in this district have had consistent leadership, and they’re going to look for more of the same.”

McCarthy’s exit from the race has thrown open the floodgates to nearly a dozen candidates. The district, the most conservative in California, is almost certain to elect a Republican.

Aside from Fong, the only other candidate who has previously held elected office is Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux. Other Republicans include David Giglio, a far-right, self-described “America First” candidate who has been critical of McCarthy; Matt Stoll, a former fighter pilot who operates a landscaping business and has run for Congress twice before; and Kyle Kirkland, the owner of Fresno’s only card room.

The most prominent Democrat in the race is Bakersfield teacher Marisa Wood, who raised more than $1 million in her unsuccessful run against McCarthy in 2022.

The biggest question is whether Fong, who was endorsed by McCarthy the day after he entered the race, will even appear on the ballot.

Fong, born and raised in Bakersfield, began his career working for McCarthy’s predecessor, then-Rep. Bill Thomas, before spending nearly a decade as McCarthy’s district director. Fong was elected to the state Assembly in 2016.

It’s a path that mirrors that of McCarthy, who began his political career in Thomas’ office, then served four years in the state Assembly before running for Congress.

After McCarthy announced that he would retire, election officials extended the filing period for the 20th Congressional District seat by five days. Fong entered the congressional race during the extension period and was sworn in as a candidate by the Kern County elections division, prompting complaints from other candidates who said Fong had already qualified to run for reelection to the state Assembly.

Days later, Weber’s office said that Fong’s congressional paperwork was “improperly submitted,” and he would “not appear on the list of certified candidates for Congressional District 20.”

Said one political consultant who asked for anonymity in order to speak frankly: “How the hell does that even happen?”

In a 13-page petition filed Friday in Sacramento County Superior Court, Fong said that Weber’s decision was based on an outdated law, which reads: “No person may file nomination papers for a party nomination and an independent nomination for the same office, or for more than one office at the same election.”

Fong argued that the law has not been applicable since 2010, when California voters revamped the state’s primary system, scrapping party nominations in favor of a system in which the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

Fong also said that Weber’s decision to bar him from the congressional ballot is an “attempted unilateral expansion of her powers,” which should be limited to receiving and filing the list of candidates collected by California’s county election officials. Adding an extra qualification for candidates — that only those who have not filed for another office may run — is a violation of the Constitution, his lawyers argue.

Newspaper columnist Robert Price put the blame for the kerfuffle squarely at McCarthy’s feet, writing for the Bakersfield Californian that the congressman’s retirement announcement will not only leave the district temporarily without representation in Washington but has created “chaos in the succession process — chaos likely to give an advantage to a Democrat or a far-right Republican not based in Bakersfield.”

“It would have been nice if McCarthy had first huddled with other Republican elected officials,” Price wrote, so that Fong and Grove would have “enough time to figure out what was best for themselves and their districts. That seems not to have happened, or happened sufficiently well.”

McCarthy, left, then the California Assembly minority leader, and Jim Brulte, then the state Senate minority leader, in 2004.

(Steve Yeater / Associated Press )

Brulte said he and McCarthy spoke in mid-December about what McCarthy planned to do after leaving Washington. McCarthy helped deliver the House majority to the Republican Party in 2010 and again in 2022 by raising millions of dollars and helping to pick diverse candidates who were good fits for their districts. That, Brulte said, will continue to be McCarthy’s priority.

“He knows a Republican is going to carry his district,” Brulte said. “He’s more interested in recruiting good candidates. He’s much more focused on helping Republicans keep the congressional majority than he is focused on his own district.”

After McCarthy leaves office, Gov. Gavin Newsom will have 14 days to set the date of a primary for a special election to temporarily fill the 20th District seat until January 2025.

Scheduling special elections concurrently with regularly scheduled elections can save hundreds of thousands of dollars in administration costs. California’s primary election is March 5, and ballots will be mailed to voters in the first week of February.

Still unclear is whether the elections officials in the four counties that comprise the 20th Congressional District — Fresno, Kern, Kings and Tulare — would have enough time to certify candidates for a special election, update the ballots to reflect the new race and print them in time to meet that deadline.