How will the deaths of high-profile homicide suspects tip Ecuador’s election? | Elections Information

It was a second that plunged the Ecuadorian presidential race into chaos. As anticorruption candidate Fernando Villavicencio ducked right into a car on the finish of a marketing campaign rally, gunfire ripped by means of the gang, killing him mere days earlier than the primary spherical of voting.

Now, as Ecuador prepares for the pivotal second spherical on Sunday — a run-off vote that may resolve the nation’s subsequent president — a contemporary volley of bloodshed has as soon as once more rattled the race.

On October 6, rumours started to unfold on-line that six of the suspects arrested in Villavicencio’s assassination had themselves been murdered behind bars.

“Might it not be that the federal government of [Ecuadorian President] Guillermo Lasso and the Ecuador Police wish to disguise the reality of those occasions?” SOS Prisons Ecuador, a human rights nonprofit, posted on the social media platform X.

Hours later, the information was confirmed. Ecuador’s corrections company, the Nationwide Service for Consideration to Individuals Disadvantaged of Liberty, or SNAI, acknowledged the suspects’ deaths, which befell within the notorious Litoral Penitentiary, recognized for its violence.

“All of the [imprisoned individuals] had been Colombian nationals and had been charged with the assassination of ex-presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio,” SNAI mentioned in its press launch.

The next day, one other suspect within the Villavicencio capturing was discovered lifeless in El Inca jail in northern Quito. Of the group of suspects below investigation for the assassination, solely six stay alive.

The exact circumstances of the killings stay unknown. However consultants and sources near the case warned the suspects’ deaths may have wide-ranging implications for the way forward for politics in Ecuador.

“5 p.c of voters are extremely unpredictable,” pollster Omar Maluk advised Al Jazeera. “If something occurs, they alter their minds.”

A decent election

Maluk believes the fallout from the seven killings may weigh closely on Sunday’s vote. The 2 candidates within the run-off election are in a lifeless warmth: left-wing candidate Luisa Gonzalez and centrist enterprise scion Daniel Noboa.

Noboa started the month with a slight lead over Gonzalez, Maluk defined, however the latter rebounded after the remaining presidential debate aired earlier this month.

Now, Maluk sees the dynamics altering as soon as extra. “Noboa is rising, whereas Gonzalez slowly declines,” he mentioned. “It’s nonetheless a technical draw.”

However Gonzalez’s political mentor, former President Rafael Correa, has come below scrutiny since Villavicencio’s assassination on August 9.

A former journalist and politician, Villavicencio was a longtime critic of Correa, who ruled from 2007 to 2017. He launched complaints in opposition to members of Correa’s authorities, and Correa filed a profitable lawsuit in opposition to him, alleging defamation.

Correa, nevertheless, was convicted in 2020 on corruption-related expenses. He has denied wrongdoing, dismissing the case as political persecution, and has since lived in exile in Belgium.

Journalist Christian Zurita — who changed Villavicencio after his demise because the presidential candidate for the Movimiento Construye get together — believes the August assassination could also be linked to that historical past of stress with Correa’s political motion.

He cited what he mentioned was an unreleased witness testimony in interviews with Al Jazeera and media retailers in Ecuador, together with the newspaper El Universo.

“This man mentioned that the crime is related to the federal government of former president Rafael Correa,” Zurita advised Al Jazeera. No proof has been offered publicly to substantiate this allegation. The witness gave his testimony to the general public authorities final Sunday, however his id stays a secret.

Correa, in the meantime, issued a forceful rejection of the accusation on social media, calling it an try and derail Gonzalez’s marketing campaign.

“They made him accuse us on October 10, 5 days earlier than the elections,” Correa mentioned of the alleged witness. “Something to impede our victory.”

Villavicencio had mentioned he acquired demise threats from cartels within the lead-up to his assassination. Crime has grow to be a number one challenge within the upcoming presidential run-off, with candidates carrying bulletproof vests to marketing campaign stops.

A blow to the investigation

Within the wake of the seven suspects’ deaths, Zurita has additionally been essential of public authorities below the federal government of outgoing President Lasso.

“The state is finally accountable for the life and demise of those individuals. The secretary of prisons ought to have sorted their safety,” Zurita advised Al Jazeera.

After the lethal assaults on the Villavicencio suspects, Lasso fired the director of Ecuador’s jail company and eliminated leaders within the nationwide police as properly. He additionally transferred the remaining six suspects from the services the place they had been being held.

Ecuador’s public prosecutor additionally opened an investigation into the jail company SNAI for not complying with an order to switch the suspects to safer services.

However the suspects’ deaths have shaken public religion in whether or not justice could be served within the Villavicencio case.

The state of affairs “represents a major problem”, lawyer Ricardo Vanegas advised Al Jazeera. The suspects “had been the one ones who knew who the instigators had been”.

Vanegas represents Villavicencio’s adopted daughter Cristina Villavicencio. He has been vocal about his perception that the investigation has been riddled with irregularities.

Proof has gone lacking, Vanegas has alleged, together with Villavicencio’s cell phone, which he mentioned was final seen in a well being care centre after the capturing.

“Fernando mentioned in radio and TV programmes that he had acquired threats from legal teams and politicians,” Vanegas mentioned. “The cell is subsequently instrumental to determine who these individuals are, however it has not been delivered but.”

“There have been many issues that don’t add up for the reason that starting of the investigation,” mentioned Daniel Ponton, a professor of safety and defence at Ecuador’s Nationwide Institute for Larger Research. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in the USA is at present aiding within the case.

As for Zurita, he speculated that the seven suspects had been killed to keep up their silence, in case they took a plea deal.

“In a authorized trial, they may have seemingly reached an settlement to cut back their conviction,” he alleged. “They had been murdered for that reason.”