Manitoba NDP turns attention to St. Boniface, hoping to take seat from Manitoba Liberal leader | CBC News

With less than a week until the Oct. 3 provincial election, Manitoba Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont is determined to keep his seat in the Legislature as the member for St. Boniface, but he’s up against strategic voters and apathy for the Liberals both federally and provincially.

The St. Boniface constituency in central Winnipeg has swung between Manitoba’s NDP and Liberals for nearly 50 years. From 1999 until 2018, the seat was held by the NDP’s Greg Selinger, who also served as Manitoba’s premier between 2009 to 2016.

Lamont, who became the Manitoba Liberal leader in 2017, won St. Boniface for his party in the 2018 byelection, briefly giving the Liberals four seats and official party status in the Legislature.

While he held on to St. Boniface in 2019, the Liberals dropped to three seats in that election, losing party status.

“I’m absolutely confident that I can win St. Boniface” this year, Lamont said at a Wednesday news conference. “We can hold our seats, and … we can keep gaining, because that’s what our numbers show.”

He’s challenged by NDP hopeful Robert Loiselle, a francophone Métis teacher born and raised in St. Boniface, as well as Kirt Hayer of the Progressive Conservatives and the Communist Party’s Damon Bath.

Polls released last week by the non-profit Angus Reid Institute and for-profit firm Probe Research both showed the Manitoba Liberals had support from just nine percent of surveyed voters.

However, Lamont noted those polls were conducted before recent leaders’ debates, which he says have made a difference in the race.

‘You have a choice’ beyond PCs, NDP: Lamont

During a Sept. 21 leaders’ debate hosted by CBC Manitoba, Lamont sold his party as an alternative to the province’s two main parties, urging voters not to cast their votes strategically.

“This is still a democracy. You have a choice. You do not have to vote NDP to get rid of Heather Stefanson and the PCs. You can vote for Manitoba Liberals to stop both,” he said.

NDP Leader Wab Kinew ended that debate with an appeal to Liberal voters, asking them to consider his party in what the polls suggest could be a close election.

Kinew continued his appeal to Liberal voters during a Tuesday press conference in St. Boniface, where he committed support for Manitoba’s French education, culture, day care and health care.

He praised the event, held alongside Loiselle, as an opportunity “to reflect on the important role that the francophone community and the Métis people have played in creating the Manitoba that we know and love.”

About 11 per cent of residents in St. Bonifiace say they speak French most often at home, according to an Elections Manitoba’s profile of the riding, based on 2021 Statistics Canada census data.

“I wouldn’t give up on Dougald Lamont holding the constituency, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the NDP took that, if they’re doing very well across the province,” said Christopher Adams, a political science professor at the University of Manitoba.

Adams says provincewide and even citywide polls are not reliable in terms of predicting the outcomes of constituency-specific races. Lamont is respected, has a high profile and has done well in the debates, so “he might be right that his internal numbers are saying that he’s OK.”

‘A party that barely exists’: focus group

Adams says Lamont likely hopes the Liberals will clinch four to five seats on Oct. 3, but he’s vulnerable in his own constituency, and the unpopularity of the federal Liberals could spell more trouble for the Manitoba Liberals.

While the party is likely safe in Winnipeg’s River Heights riding, which has been a Liberal stronghold under Jon Gerrard since 1999, the NDP has shown strength in that constituency as well, said Adams.

Cindy Lamoureux, who holds the other seat for the Liberals in Winnipeg’s Tyndall Park riding, may also be in for a battle against the NDP, he said.

The Liberals also appear to face a battle against voter apathy, a focus group conducted by Probe Research for CBC Manitoba earlier this week suggests.

Nine Manitoba voters, most from Winnipeg, were part of the Tuesday focus group.

Participant Nigel Moore, who lives in the River Heights riding, said he’s leaning toward casting his ballot for the NDP this election, even though he expects Gerrard to be re-elected.

“He’s part of a party that barely exists, and in many respects, I think Dougald Lamont is the party,” said Moore.

Moore said he likes that the Liberal leader’s slim odds of claiming the premier’s office mean he has freedom to be more honest with the public.

“But I wouldn’t vote for him, because I don’t feel like the Liberals have a chance, or are much of a power in the province.”

Fellow participant Nadia Radi, who lives in the St. Vital riding, says she’ll be voting strategically this election.

While Lamont “was making really good points about a lot of things in the [Sept. 21] debate,” she said, “I kind of want to make my vote count.”