MLB Notes: AL East may be strongest division ever, but for how much longer?

This year’s AL East is on track to be the strongest division in MLB history.

Up until this week, when the New York Yankees dipped below .500 amid their ongoing swoon, all five AL East teams had been above .500 for the majority of the season. Entering the weekend the division’s collective win percentage was .554, which is the best for a five-team division in MLB history.

It’s been a gauntlet for a couple of years now. Last year’s AL East set a new record with a .540 win percentage, and in 2021 four of the five teams topped 90 wins.

Is this how it’s going to be from now on? Are these five teams destined to do battle forever?

Perhaps not.

As strong as the AL East is right now, the cracks are beginning to show and it won’t be a shock if a couple of former contenders began taking a step back.

Baltimore seems like the only sure thing. The Orioles have emerged from the other side of their years-long rebuild and now rank among the best teams in baseball. They also boast baseball’s best farm system, including MLB’s No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday, a 19-year-old shortstop who is posting video game numbers at Double-A.

Is owner John Angelos willing to spend the extra money in free agency to put this team over the top? That’s still unclear, but the Orioles have positioned themselves well and should be contenders for years to come.

Everyone else has some red flags.

Tampa Bay always seems to find a way despite its financial limitations, but even the Rays could have a hard time overcoming some of their recent setbacks. This week Shane McClanahan became the latest Tampa Bay pitcher to undergo Tommy John surgery, and he’ll now miss the rest of this season and all of next as well.

Worse, franchise shortstop Wander Franco’s future may also now be in doubt. The 22-year-old superstar agreed to be placed on the Restricted List earlier this week after allegations surfaced that Franco may have engaged in an inappropriate relationship with a minor.

Authorities in the Dominican Republic and MLB are currently investigating, and while there are obviously far more important things at stake than the situation’s potential impact on the Rays, losing Franco would be a devastating blow for the franchise.

Toronto may also be nearing the end of its championship window. Most of the organization’s best young players have already reached the majors and the club’s current farm system ranks near the bottom of the league. The Blue Jays are built to win now, but if they can’t get it done this year it’s only going to get harder as stalwarts like George Springer, Kevin Kiermaier, Whit Merrifield, Matt Chapman and many of their best pitchers age deeper into their 30s.

And the Yankees? Don’t even get me started.

Considering what the Yankees used to be, it’s shocking to see how bad things have gotten in the Bronx. Outside of Aaron Judge the offense has become utterly punchless, and the club will remain hamstrung by numerous bad contracts for years to come. Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu both remain under contract for at least three more years, and the Yankees still owe outfielder Aaron Hicks another $21 million over the next two years despite releasing him in May.

Theoretically, the Yankees could go full Steve Cohen and spend like crazy in free agency, but that didn’t work out so well this year for the Mets. We’ve seen nothing to suggest owner Hal Steinbrenner will embrace that approach like his father George did so often back in the day, so barring a major turnaround New York could be looking at a couple of lean years.

So at minimum the Red Sox face the prospect of a juggernaut in Baltimore and likely a pesky contender in Tampa Bay. The Red Sox have plenty of question marks of their own, but with the club’s long-term vision coming into focus it’s not hard to envision this group competing in what should remain a strong — but perhaps not historically strong — division going forward.

Troubling trend for Tampa Bay

Losing Shane McClanahan to Tommy John surgery is going to be a massive blow, but the worst part for Tampa Bay is it’s only the latest in what has been a devastating run of injuries for the organization’s pitching staff.

McClanahan is now the fourth big league starter to undergo the procedure in the past year, joining Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and top prospect Shane Baz, who would almost certainly be one of the club’s best starters by now if not for his setback last September. Those four alone would comprise an excellent playoff rotation, and that doesn’t even include others like Tyler Glasnow, Andrew Kittredge and Jalen Beeks who have undergone the procedure over the past few years.

Tampa Bay does still have three strong starters it can rely on in Glasnow, Zach Elfin and newly acquired Andrew Civale, but beyond that it’s going to be a lot of openers and bullpen days from here on out. The Rays still have greater than 90% playoff odds according to FanGraphs, but considering that they came into the weekend 16-22 since the start of July, the arrow definitely isn’t pointing up.

Braves dominating MVP race

The National League MVP race is still up in the air, but it’s safe to say at this point that whoever wins will probably be a member of the Atlanta Braves.

Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson are both enjoying historic seasons and have emerged as the prohibitive favorites to win MVP. Though Acuña had long been viewed as a runaway, Olson’s made such a strong push that he now warrants serious consideration as well.

Acuña, obviously, is just a beast. The 25-year-old entered the weekend batting .335 with 27 home runs, 55 stolen bases and a .995 OPS, and he’s now on the verge of becoming just the third player in MLB history to hit 30 home runs and steal 50 bases in a season. The other two were Cincinnati’s Eric Davis (37 HR, 50 SB) in 1987 and then-Pittsburgh Pirates star Barry Bonds (33 HR, 52 SB) in 1990.

While it would require a monster last six weeks of the regular season, it’s not out of the realm of possibility Acuña could become the first player in MLB history to post a 40-50 season.

Olson, meanwhile, is already past 40 home runs and has a great chance at breaking Andruw Jones’ franchise record of 51 homers in a season. He had 43 entering Friday and is on pace to hit 59, putting him within striking distance of becoming the second player in consecutive years to reach 60 after Aaron Judge hit 62 to break the AL home run record last season.

Who will win? The betting markets favor Acuña, but the Braves probably aren’t too worried either way. Having two MVP-level talents on a roster with All-Stars at nearly every position is the kind of spot every franchise dreams of being in, and Atlanta should be the favorites to win their second World Series title in three years later this fall.

Dream infield

If you could build a dream infield of anyone in MLB history, who would you pick? That question was asked by MLB Network in a viral social media post, and it seemed like everyone in the baseball world had their own vision of greatness.

Here’s mine.

Third base was easy: Mike Schmidt. The former Phillies great hit 548 home runs, had a .908 career OPS and won 10 Gold Gloves. Schmidt was the total package and gives you everything you could possibly want.

Second base was also fairly straightforward: Joe Morgan. People of my generation mostly remember Morgan as a polarizing broadcaster, but back in the day he was an absolute menace on the diamond. Morgan had eight seasons with 100 or more walks, and with 689 career stolen bases he was pretty much guaranteed to get into scoring position whenever he got on base. He also never struck out, had a little bit of pop and won five Gold Gloves. Got to have him.

Shortstop was a little bit tougher. From a pure production standpoint the answer is probably Alex Rodriguez. He won two Gold Gloves at the position and posted historic offensive numbers, but obviously his case is complicated by his acknowledged performance-enhancing drug use. So if not him, give me Cal Ripken Jr. Consistent all-around production, an even better defender than his two Gold Gloves would suggest, and plays every day.

For first base I’m going with Albert Pujols. The first decade of his career Pujols was just in another stratosphere offensively, and even though he never had a reputation of being a great defensive first baseman, his glove was better than he got credit for.

Finally for catcher: Johnny Bench. It’s a tough call between him and Ivan Rodriguez, but Bench was a superior producer during a lighter offensive era and was also among the best defensive catchers in history.

That’s who I’m rolling with. What about you?

Local arms pitching well

Walpole’s Cam Schlittler and North Andover’s Sebastian Keane, both former college teammates at Northeastern University, have gotten off to a strong start professionally in the New York Yankees organization since being drafted last summer.

Schlittler was recently promoted from the Florida Complex League to Low-A, and in 10 appearances (nine starts) between the two levels he’d posted a 3.34 ERA over 32.1 innings entering Friday. The 22-year-old right-hander earned the promotion after posting a 1.15 ERA over a five start stretch in rookie ball, and since joining the Tampa Tarpons earlier this month he has a 4.09 ERA, including one run allowed in each of his last two starts coming into the weekend.

As of Friday Keane had appeared in 17 games out of the bullpen for the FCL Yankees, posting a 1.85 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 24.1 innings of work. He recently earned his first career save, and if Keane keeps pitching like this a promotion to Single-A at some point soon seems likely.