NBA play-in tournament predictions: Odds, picks for Heat-76ers, Hawks-Bulls
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After 82 regular-season games, the NBA‘s playoff field is set, with play-in tournament games being played Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday this week.
For the purpose of this story, we’ll focus on Wednesday’s Eastern Conference matchups, where the 76ers host the Heat in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game, and the Bulls host the Hawks in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 matchup.
Here’s a first look at the two Wednesday games with betting recommendations.
Heat vs. 76ers prediction
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat | +4.5 (-106) | +164 | o207.5 (-110) |
| 76ers | -4.5 (-114) | -196 | o207.5 (-110) |
The 76ers looked like one of the best teams in the league with a 29-14 start. Joel Embiid was the early frontrunner to pick up a consecutive MVP award until he suffered a knee injury against the Warriors on Jan. 30.
While Embiid recovered from surgery to repair his meniscus tear, the 76ers went just 11-18 in his absence, dropping to eighth in the conference with a 40-35 mark.
Since his return, the 76ers have won all five games Embiid has played, and they’re 31-8 this season when he’s on the floor.
Although Miami split the season series with Philadelphia, Embiid only played in one of the meetings — a 109-105 road victory for the 76ers.
The Heat usually save their best effort for the postseason, so it’s a team you never want to outright dismiss.
Last year, after finishing as the seventh seed and losing the first play-in game, Miami took advantage of a second opportunity to qualify for the playoffs with a 102-91 victory over the 10th-seeded Bulls, which helped propel the Heat to the NBA Finals.
The 76ers are a formidable team with Embiid on the court, so we could see a similar occurrence with Miami having to win the second play-in game to advance.
As a result, a 76ers moneyline wager, even at its current high price, still offers some value.
Recommendation: 76ers ML (-190, BetRivers)
Hawks vs. Bulls prediction
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawks | +3 (-108) | +126 | o220.5 (-110) |
| Bulls | -3 (-112) | -148 | u220.5 (-110) |
Chicago won the regular-season series with Atlanta by a 2-1 margin.
Hawks point guard Trae Young (25.7 PPG) played the season’s final three games after missing 6 1/2 weeks with a torn ligament on his left hand. However, Atlanta lost all three of those games.
Even with Young back with the team, the Hawks will be without three other key players: Jalen Johnson (16.0 PPG), Saddiq Bey (13.7 PPG) and Onyeka Okongwu (10.2 PPG).
Bey is out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee, while Johnson (ankle) and Okongwu (toe) won’t return until May if the Hawks can make a deep run.
Something to keep in mind: Short favorites of 3.5 or fewer points are a perfect 6-0 against the spread in the play-in tournament, so the Chicago -3 is definitely in play.
Another option that might offer some value is Atlanta’s team total of 108.5 points. Although the under was 2-1 in the season series, the Hawks scored at least 113 points in all three meetings.
Moreover, in last year’s play-in game, Atlanta faced a Heat team that plays at a similar slow pace to the Bulls and the Hawks still scored 116 points.
Chicago struggles to defend the perimeter, ranking 29th in opponent 3-point field goals, while Atlanta is sixth in 3-pointers made. Those numbers should work in the Hawks’ favor to surpass their team total of 108.5.
Recommendation: Hawks team total over 108.5 (-120, DraftKings)
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