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The NFL offered a media release Tuesday imploring those whose teams are now 0-2 to keep it together.
“No Need To Panic” was the headline on the email direct from the Politburo to my inbox.
It’s been 22 years since the Patriots began 0-2.
New England’s NFL entry last fell to 0-2 Sept. 23, 2001.
That 10-3 loss to the Jets has been bronzed.
It was the first game for the Patriots after 9/11.
With 5:01 left in the fourth quarter, Mo Lewis knocked Drew Bledsoe out of the game.
(It was a savage, but clean, shoulder hit. Bledsoe was still on the field and not heading out of bounds.)
And launched Tom Brady into immortality.
Week 3 of the 2001 season marked Brady’s first NFL start.
Tom Brady 1 – Peyton Manning 0.
Just 24, Brady would go on to win his first Super Bowl that season.
At 24, Mac Jones needed a boost from Bill O’Brien to beat Bailey Zappe for the QB1 spot.
The final bell has since tolled for Brady’s NFL playing career.
Tom is not coming through that door … until next June.
Roger Goodell’s Ministry of Disinformation – the same folks who told us concussions were no big deal, 11 of 12 balls were significantly underinflated, and that turf isn’t a problem – offered some data points aimed to soothe fans in places like Cincinnati, New England, Denver, and elsewhere, whose teams are 0-2.
Here is what the Ministry of Disinformation volunteered as statistical Xanax until Sunday’s game between the Patriots and Jets at MetLife Stadium:
An 0-2 team has made the playoffs in 7 of the past 10 seasons, including the Bengals in 2022.
Whew!
That should make you feel much better about the troubles on Route 1 in Foxboro.
I’d give the Red Sox better odds to make the playoffs next season than the Patriots making the playoffs this season.
A broader look at the numbers between 1990-2022, a fairly significant statistical sample, show that 265 teams began their seasons 0-2.
Of those, 30 made the playoffs.
That 11.3% probability translates into +785 on your favorite legal sports betting app.
Belichickians can take solace in the fact that oddsmakers are pricing the Patriots much higher than our statistically typical 0-2 team.
New England is +385 to make the playoffs at DraftKings, boosting their postseason probability to 20.62%.
Maybe DraftKings knows something about the offensive line that we don’t.
There is an absurdity about getting too upset after an 0-2 start, especially considering 87.5% of the season has yet to be played.
The Patriots could always close the season 15-0.
Or 0-15.
But — and you just knew it was coming — here is the dirty secret.
The following is Not Suitable For Work, or school, or a family newspaper.
But we are contractually obligated to share it.
The NFL does not want you to know what happens to teams who start 0-3.
It’s rated NC-17.
Since the NFL expansion in 1979, only 6 of 174 teams that started 0-3 made the playoffs.
Or 3.4%.
The numbers are even more gruesome in the 21st Century.
An even 100 teams have started 0-3 since 2001.
Just one — the 2018 Texans — made the playoffs. They finished 11-5 and got bounced in the first round.
That means teams who start their season 0-3 – based on the data in this century – have a whopping 1% chance to make the playoffs.
1%.
0-3?
Rip 2023
Bye-Bye Bill(s)
#TankForShadeur
This lineup is not equipped to overcome 100-1 odds.
This arithmetic makes Sunday’s game against the Jets a “Must Win.”
Looking beyond the raw probability numbers, a loss Sunday leaves the Patriots 0-2 in the AFC East
With games remaining at Buffalo and an oft ill-fated visit to South Florida.
The Patriots would be two games behind the Jets.
And possibly three games back of Miami.
On the wrong side of every tiebreaker.
With a week left in baseball season.
The psychological and emotional trauma resulting from a loss to a Zach Wilson-led team ending the Patriots run of 14-straight wins over the Jets is incalculable.
Freud never went that deep.
Or dark.
The season is over if the Patriots fall to 0-3 on Sunday. At least in terms of reaching the playoffs.
Math don’t lie, either.
On the bright side, an 0-3 start would accelerate the inevitable change coming to Gillette Stadium.
Bill Belichick is 71.
Brady fought Father Time to a draw.
But the Old Man is coming for his former coach with red-eyed vengeance.
Toby Keith summed up 2023 Belichick thusly: “He’s not as good as he once was, but he’s good once as he ever was.”
The running field-goal-block call Sunday night saved special teams play from NFL irrelevance.
Genius at work.
Once.
But the big picture is blurry.
The Patriots are trying to win in 2023 the same way they won in 2001.
Defense and special teams carry the load.
The offensive does the bare minimum.
Skill players are interchangeable widgets.
That all works wonderfully when you have a cure-all at quarterback.
Sadly, this defense is not nearly as skilled or punishing as its early-21st-Century predecessor.
Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, and Ty Law have no peers on the 2023 roster.
The NFL has long-since morphed into an offense-first-and-last league.
The generational differences between Mike McDaniel and Belichick were broadcast to the world in high-def Sunday night.
Think Kennedy and Eisenhower at the 1961 inauguration.
The New Frontier for the Patriots remains on hold.
Whether that happens sooner or later depends on the outcome Sunday afternoon.
Bill Speros (@RealOBF and @BillSperos) is a Senior Betting Analyst at Bookies.com and can be reached at bsperos1@gmail.com.
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