Pac-12 bowl picks: Washington heads to the CFP, Oregon awaits New Year’s Six bid as everything falls into place
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The final, most anticipated Pac-12 championship game provided fabulous theatre Friday night in Las Vegas as Washington lost a big lead, then rallied in the fourth quarter to edge Oregon 34-31 and clinch a perfect regular season.
The rest of the weekend should be relatively free of drama for the conference.
We know the Huskies are headed to the College Football Playoff as a 13-0 conference champion with four wins over teams ranked in the CFP top-25 and eight victories over bowl-eligible teams.
The only question is whether UW holds its ground as the No. 3 seed when the pairings are announced Sunday morning, or slips to fourth.
Best guess: The Huskies are No. 3 and paired against No. 2 Michigan in the Rose Bowl, which hosts a semifinal.
Either way, Washington will end the Pac-12’s six-year playoff drought in the conference’s final year of existence.
Oregon won’t fall far from its No. 5 position in the CFP rankings. The selection committee typically is loath to punish teams for losing their championship games, particularly narrow defeats to higher-ranked opponents.
Assuming the Ducks hold a spot in the top-10, they will participate in the New Year’s Six lineup of games, with the Fiesta, Cotton and Peach Bowls as the possible destinations.
The CFP berth carries a $6 million paycheck for the conference, while the New Year’s Six spot is worth $4 million. The combined windfall will be divided equally among the 12 schools as part of the Pac-12’s revenue-sharing agreement.
In all, eight Pac-12 teams are bowl-eligible — the highest total in six years.
As with Washington and Oregon, the other six teams seemingly have clearly-defined landing spots.
Let’s go step by step, in order of selection.
Alamo Bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: The Alamo picks first after the CFP and New Year’s Six, and there’s no decision to be made. Arizona, which finished alone in third place, is headed to San Antonio based on its two-game advantage in the conference standings over the group of teams tied for fourth. (Had the difference in record been just one game, the Alamo could have chosen its participant.)
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Utah
Comment: There are five options here: Utah, USC, Oregon State, UCLA and Cal are within one game of each other in the standings (5-4 or 4-5). Las Vegas Bowl officials will undoubtedly consider the Trojans because of their brand power. But how motivated are USC fans to buy tickets after the winless November? Utah fans, on the other hand, will follow their team anywhere. Add a better record than USC (8-4 vs. 7-5) and a more inspired finish to the season, and the Utes make the most sense for Las Vegas.
Holiday Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: Holiday officials appeared prepared to invite Oregon State last week but are undoubtedly rethinking that plan after the Beavers lost their head coach, Jonathan Smith, to Michigan State and their quarterback, D.J. Uiagalelei, to the transfer portal. Combine the departures with back-to-back losses to end the season and the Beavers are hardly a hot commodity. Meanwhile, there’s a better option right up the road. We expect the Holiday Bowl to invite USC.
Sun Bowl
Team: Oregon State
Comment: The Sun occupies the fifth spot in the lineup, and it doesn’t have an option. Unlike the Alamo, Las Vegas and Holiday Bowls, event organizers in El Paso must select their participant based on conference record. That means Oregon State, which finished 5-4 in league play — one game better than Cal and UCLA.
LA Bowl
Team: UCLA
Comment: At this point, only the Bruins and Bears remain. UCLA has a better overall record (7-5 compared to 6-6), but Cal won the head-to-head matchup at the end of the season and finished with a three-game winning streak. Then again, neither fan base is likely to gobble up tickets. This is an interesting decision, but our hunch is the LA Bowl picks the LA team and invites UCLA.
Independence Bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: That leaves the Bears for Shreveport, which helps the program in one regard: It’s quality recruiting exposure in the southeast quadrant as they prepare for life in the ACC.
*** Programming note: The CFP matchups will be revealed Sunday at 9 a.m. on ESPN. At approximately 11:30 a.m., the New Year’s Six pairings will be made public. At that point, the remaining bowls begin their selections. All eight Pac-12 games should be finalized early in the afternoon.
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