Patriots-Chargers film review: Bill Belichick’s worst roster flaw is killing the offense

Like the lonely zero that hung on the scoreboard at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, Bill Belichick’s history of drafting wide receivers is sad, painful and plain to see.

Do you know the last college receiver the Patriots selected who became a multi-year NFL starter?

That would be Deion Branch in 2002. That’s right.

It’s been more than 20 years since Belichick drafted and developed a true wideout. Tom Brady papered over that problem for two decades, as he did many dynasty-era deficiencies. But now Belichick’s receiving corps is undermining the Patriots more than any other non-quarterback position on the roster.

Think about it.

Kayshon Boutte failed to tap a second foot inbounds in the final seconds of the Pats’ season opener against the Eagles; DeVante Parker dropped a 50-yard bomb on the final drive at Las Vegas; JuJu Smith-Schuster deflected a game-sealing interception to the Commanders to clinch a loss in Week 9.

On Sunday, it was Tyquan Thornton’s turn to kneecap his teammates, dropping a would-be, go-ahead, 68-yard touchdown pass down the left sideline late in the third quarter. The offense got shut out, it seemed, because of Bailey Zappe, a below-average backup who barely completed half his passes. Yet Zappe delivered an accurate ball on 67% of his attempts, and shouldn’t that be enough?

Remember how Zappe put that ball exactly on Thornton’s hands, and Thornton later finished with zero catches. Meanwhile, Smith-Schuster and Jalen Reagor each had one catch. Around four grabs, Parker dropped one pass, false-started and whipped one leg out of bounds on another well-placed deep ball.

All together, the Patriots averaged 2.8 yards per play when they fielded three receivers against the Chargers, who own a bottom-8 pass defense by DVOA, EPA and yards allowed per attempt. Mind-boggling.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles promoted practice-squad wideout Alex Erickson on Saturday, and he knocked out the Pats with a 23-yard catch against man coverage on the Chargers’ last possession. With that catch, Erickson gained more yards than Smith-Schuster, Thornton and Reagor had combined, and Boutte boasts for the season.

Must it be this hard? Must the Patriots roster four of the NFL’s 20 worst pass-catchers by ESPN’s all-inclusive receiver analytics? Or the league’s second-worst separator in Parker and its second-worst yards-after-catch player in Smith-Schuster, both according to Next Gen Stats?

Belichick once boiled the job of a wide receiver down to two duties: get open and catch the ball. Through a dozen games, this group is 0-for-2.

Here’s what else the film revealed about Sunday’s loss:

Bailey Zappe

13-of-25 for 141 yards

Accurate throw percentage: 66.7%

Under pressure: 3-of-5 for 18 yards, 5 sacks

Against the blitz: 3-of-7 for 25 yards, 3 sacks

Behind the line: 3-of-4 for 33 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 7-of-11 for 46 yards

10-19 yards downfield: 2-of-4 for 35 yards

20+ yards downfield: 1-of-5 for 27 yards

Notes: Zappe offered an upgrade from Mac Jones mostly because he didn’t implode.

Zappe finished without a turnover, and stepped up in the face of pressure, including two scrambles that resulted in successful plays. However, he also took sacks on half of the snaps he felt pressure, a percentage no offense can survive. That was the chief reason the Patriots went scoreless, next to Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumble at the Chargers’ 31.

Zappe got sacked four times on the fringe of field goal range, at the Chargers’ 28, 30, 32 and 36-yard lines. Most stemmed from protection breakdowns, but by and large sacks are a quarterback stat, and Zappe has a tendency to cling to the ball too long. That flaw eliminated a couple scoring chances Sunday.

Lastly, Zappe’s aggression unlocked a downfield passing game that collected dust with Jones. His 27-yarder to DeVante Parker matched the Patriots’ number of deep completions (defined as covering 20-plus yards in the air) in their previous six games combined. Zappe’s five deep attempts also tied for the Pats’ third-most such attempts in a single game this season.

Critical areas

• Turnovers: Patriots 1, Chargers 0
• Explosive play rate: Patriots 6.4%, Chargers 4.9%
• Success rate: Patriots 40%, Chargers 41%
• Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 0-0, Chargers 0-0
• Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 18.4%, Chargers 40.7%

Offense

Game plan

• Personnel breakdown: 75% of snaps in 11 personnel, 24% snaps in 12 personnel, 1% snaps in 13 personnel.***
• Personnel production: 2.8 yards/play in 11 personnel, 8.1 yards/play in 12 personnel, 4.0 yards/play in 13 personnel.
• First-down down play-calls: 67% run (4.7 yards per play), 33% pass (6.9 yards per play)
• Play-action rate: 27%

Player stats

• Broken tackles: Ezekiel Elliott 6, Rhamondre Stevenson 5, Tyquan Thornton 2
• Pressure allowed: RT Mike Onwenu (sack, 2 hurries), LT Conor McDermott 2 (sack, hurry), LT Trent Brown (sack), RB Ezekiel Elliott (sack), RG Sidy Sow (hurry), Team 3 (sack, 2 hurries)
• Run stuffs allowed: Sow 2, LG Cole Strange, Team
• Penalties: QB Bailey Zappe (delay of game), WR DeVante Parker (false start), Team (too many men in the huddle)
• Drops: TE Hunter Henry, WR Tyquan Thornton, Parker

Notes

• Nothing about Sunday’s performance, especially against a bottom-10 defense by every metric, was sufficient. Losing a second home shutout in one season is embarrassing. Full stop.
• Sacks weren’t the only problem. The Patriots lost different possessions to drops, penalties and block run blocks. This was another Grade A mess.
• That said, Rhamondre Stevenson’s loss midway through the first quarter must be accounted for in any game review. Stevenson, who almost assuredly doesn’t change the game’s outcome, touched the ball on an absurd 62.5% of offensive snaps before he left with an ankle sprain. Feeding Stevenson was the whole game plan.
• Stevenson also broke five tackles in 17 snaps, compared to Ezekiel Elliott’s six in 44, and caught more passes than Tyquan Thornton and Mike Gesicki.
• Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien worked from a run-heavy script, calling a season-high 67% run rate on first down to strain a soft Chargers defense and keep the ball out of Bailey Zappe’s hands. That led to Stevenson and Elliott accounting for 77% of the Patriots’ touches and 75% of their total yards through five drives.
• O’Brien loaded up on play fakes on second down, when the Patriots ran 77% of their play-action passes. Zappe hit all three of his explosive pass plays off play-action. The rest of the passing plan, again, consisted of basic, Day 1 install concepts.
• Within his run-heavy plan, O’Brien set up Thornton’s 39-yard end around in the fourth quarter by calling several preceding runs that sent Thornton in that same motion as a decoy while Zappe handed the ball off to someone else.

• Initially, that motion helped loosen the middle of a Chargers defense that allowed more than five yards per carry to Stevenson and Elliott between the guards. The main objective, however, was to set up Thornton.
• Another game-plan bullet point: attacking Chargers cornerback Deane Leonard. Zappe threw at Leonard on Thornton’s dropped deep ball, two incomplete bombs for Parker and a 21-yard gain Parker had on a deep cross.
• Of the five sacks, Elliott allowed the most damaging one: Derwin James’ takedown on fourth-and-5 with seven minutes left at the Chargers’ 30 yard-line. That left the Patriots with time for one more drive and was completely avoidable.
• Three different Patriots identified safety James as an incoming blitzer pre-snap, yet Elliott failed to pick him up in the backfield. Zappe had no chance but to eat the play.

• Left tackles Trent Brown (43 snaps) and Conor McDermott (22) rotated again, as Brown deals with lingering ankle injuries. Each allowed one sack, as did right tackle Mike Onwenu, who got beat for a team-worst three pressures.
• Inside, right guard Sidy Sow got beat for two run stuffs and a hurry, while center David Andrews and left guard Cole Strange played two of their better games this season. It’s worth monitoring whether the coaching staff will begin to rotate Sow with fellow rookie Atonio Mafi, who started the season at left guard.
• Tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki continue to regress into non-factors. Henry had two catches to one drop, while Gesicki played a season-low six snaps.
• Considering the receivers’ struggles, it was curious why O’Brien didn’t lean more into 12 personnel, even if only to run the ball more. Excluding Thornton’s end around, the Patriots still averaged five yards per run from two-tight end packages.
• It’s even harder to fathom why rookie quarterback/receiver Malik Cunningham, who had a package of plays scripted for him and was elevated from the practice squad on Saturday, didn’t see any reps. The Patriots’ only offensive strength is an efficient, steady run game, something Cunningham could amplify with his experience executing option run schemes and 4.5 speed.
• And it’s not like Zappe can’t be taken off the field. Free Malik.

Defense

Game plan

• Personnel breakdown: 39% three-safety nickel package, 38% three-corner nickel, 20% dime, 3% base.****
• Coverage snaps breakdown: 63% zone, 37% man
• Blitz rate: 21%
• Blitz efficacy: 8.25 yards allowed per dropback, 75% success rate allowed

Player stats

• Interceptions: None
• Pass deflections: CB J.C. Jackson 2, CB Jonathan Jones, DB Myles Bryant, S Jalen Mills, LB Mack Wilson
• Pressure: OLB Josh Uche 2 (QB hit, hurry), DL Keion White (QB hit) DL Sam Roberts (QB hit), DL Christian Barmore (hurry), S Kyle Dugger (hurry), Wilson (hurry)
• Run stuffs: LB Ja’Whaun Bentley, S Jalen Mills, Team
• Missed tackles: Jabrill Peppers 3, Davon Godchaux 2, Jahlani Tavai, Mills
• Penalties: N/A

Notes

• After Chargers star receiver Keenan Allen, the NFL’s catch leader, missed two practices last week, the Patriots clearly felt less inclined to tilt coverage in his direction Sunday.
• Allen was only doubled a few times over a 58-yard performance that included just one reception before halftime. Pats cornerbacks Jonathan Jones and J.C. Jackson did not allow Allen a single catch in man-to-man coverage, playing him aggressively on short and intermediate routes, unafraid of the 31-year-old’s long speed.

• Hybrid nickelback/safety Myles Bryant even earned a pass breakup at Allen’s expense to kill Los Angeles’ opening drive. In the second half, the Chargers began force-feeding Allen on first down against safer zone looks, but too often fell behind the chains because of their run game.
• Overall in man coverage, the Patriots held Justin Herbert to 5-of-14 for 70 yards. Bryant allowed the game-clinching, 23-yard catch to Alex Erickson on their last snap of man-to-man, a play that also showcased the only wart on the defense’s otherwise dominant tape: no pressure.
• Herbert had all day to throw. Outside linebacker Josh Uche was the only Patriot to record multiple pressures, and he came unblocked on his one hurry.
• More alarming: the Patriots’ blitz is broken. Herbert went 7-of-8 against the blitz, and over the Pats’ last four games, opponents have posted a passer rating of 117.58 against extra rushers. That’s a scheme problem.
• Herbert dealt with scheme problems of his own around a few bad throws in rainy conditions. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore kept the ball out of Herbert’s hands completely on the second series. In the second half, he had Herbert running on third-and-3 and handing off on a third-and-6 snap in the fourth quarter.
• Mind you, the Chargers’ run game is historically inefficient thanks to poor blocking, which is a key context for a defensive performance that allowed 29 rushing yards.
• Though the defensive tackles handled their business. Davon Godchaux anchored the middle of the Patriots’ odd fronts, while Christian Barmore destroyed single blocks as a pass rusher and run defender, even if they often didn’t result in a pressure or run stuff. Barmore’s ongoing breakout is real.

• Elsewhere on the defensive line, rookie Keion White replaced Deatrich Wise (illness) on all downs. White finished a season-high 53 snaps playing mostly on the edge and head-up opposite offensive tackles.
• At linebacker, Jahlani Tavai and Mack Wilson both flashed around a quiet day from Ja’Whaun Bentley. Tavai registered one of four tackles for loss, while Wilson made impact plays as a pass rusher and in coverage.
• Third-round rookie Marte Mapu lasted all of three snaps as a box safety. Mapu appeared to be at fault on a coverage bust at the end of the first quarter that allowed for a 26-yard catch by tight end Gerald Everett, the Chargers’ second-longest play of the game.
• Mapu has seen just seven defensive snaps over the last month, which Belichick attributed Monday to playing behind veterans Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers. In related news, veteran safety Adrian Phillips took zero defensive snaps for the first time this season.

Studs

CB Jonathan Jones

The elder statesman of the Patriots’ secondary shut down two end-zone throws and didn’t allow a catch all game.

LB Mack Wilson

In just 28 defensive snaps, Wilson tallied a hurry and a pass breakup. He played inside and outside linebacker, as he continues to grow into a new edge role.

Duds

RT Mike Onwenu

Context is key here: blocking a future Hall of Famer in Khalil Mack is no easy task. But Mack beat Onwenu cleanly on other reps around the one sack and two hurries he allowed. Tough day.

WR Tyquan Thornton

Another receiving line of goose eggs.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

No one played more passing snaps than Smith-Schuster, who finished with one catch for a fourth time this season.