Patriots-Steelers preview: What to watch for on Thursday Night Football

Barring a small football miracle, Thursday night will be an ugly, low-scoring affair in Pittsburgh.

Backup quarterbacks, rugged defenses and teams coming off a short week after disappointing losses.

But it won’t take a miracle for the Patriots to pull an upset.

How so? Here’s what to watch for against the Steelers:

When the Patriots run

Without Rhamondre Stevenson, Ezekiel Elliott will take over lead duties in the backfield Thursday.

Elliott rushed for 52 yards on 17 carries in Stevenson’s absence last week. Elliott, even in the twilight of his career, offers plus power and an all-around skill set, which could force him to play most third downs and perhaps upwards of 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. On the season, he’s averaging 3.8 yards per carry.

“He runs very tough and physical,” Pats center David Andrews said of Elliott this week. “He’s got great vision, good quickness. I think he’s just a tough, physical back, and I’ve always thought that. You can tell how he runs. He’s tough.”

Behind him, the Pats also have Ty Montgomery and JaMychal Hasty. Hasty hasn’t taken a carry for the Patriots this season, while Montgomery has been largely limited to a special teams role. His only run last week went for two yards.

Expect the Pats to try and pound away at Pittsburgh’s run defense The Steelers are average at stopping the run by most metrics, including EPA, DVOA and yards allowed per carry.

When the Patriots pass

Beware T.J. Watt.

The Steelers’ All-Pro pass rusher drew a rave review from Bill Belichick on Wednesday. Watt, who ranks second in the NFL with 14 sacks this season, will be a tough matchup for either left tackle Trent Brown or right tackle Mike Onwenu.

“The way (Watt) does everything right at the point of contact with the tackle at the junction point is very, very good. And he’s very hard to block,” Belichick said. “He knows what he’s doing, and he knows how to give the tackle a very small surface to hit. And he’s not the biggest guy, but he has enough balance and power to work through contact and not get rerouted and thrown off of his rush lane or his rush path.

“It’s hard to get him off his rush path. It’s really hard. He does a really good job of that.”

As for the Patriots’ receivers, DeVante Parker (knee) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle) are both banged-up, which could put more on the plates of Tyquan Thornton and Jalen Reagor. The Pats also may try to involve their tight ends more. Hunter Henry had just two catches versus the Chargers, while Mike Gesicki played a season-low six snaps.

At quarterback, Bailey Zappe’s job will continue to be, first and foremost, protecting the ball. The Steelers rank among the NFL’s takeaway leaders. Then, look for Zappe to loft up a few accurate deep balls so the Pats can hopefully score in a hurry versus a stingy defense.

When the Steelers run

Former first-round running back Najee Harris didn’t practice this week with a new knee injury, but reports indicate he could be good to go at kickoff. Harris and backup Jaylen Warren form one of the NFL’s better one-two punches out of the backfield.

Warren, who’s yet to start a game, is actually enjoying the better season with a 5.9 yards per carry average and a season-long 74-yard to his name. Still, it would be a surprise to see either dominate Thursday.

The Patriots’ run defense has been their lone constant this season, elite by every measure. Defensive tackles Davon Godchaux and Christian Barmore are coming off some of their best games of the season, though keep an eye on the edge.

The Steelers may want to test rookie defensive lineman Keion White and/or Deatrich Wise, who missed last week’s loss to Los Angeles. And setting a strong edge, versus losing one, can between the difference between a three-yard gain and a 30-yard touchdown.

When the Steelers pass

Pittsburgh backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky will start in place of second-year starter Kenny Pickett. Trubisky isn’t expected to do much more than serve as a game manager, having completed 59.2% of his passes for 273 yards, two touchdowns and two picks this season.

Trubisky could, however, inflict damage with his legs. He’s a willing and able scrambler who has hurt the Patriots in the past; another reason to watch the edges.