Race for 2023-24 Premier League Title

Guide to the 2023-24 Premier League run-in as all eyes are on the title race involving Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City.

With just one point splitting the top three coming into the run-in with two of the teams set to collide on Easter Sunday, this title fight promises to be a cracker which could well go to the wire.

Here is an individual breakdown of the remaining league matches of Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City, plus analysis and predictions of what each team can achieve points-wise in the run-in.

Arsenal (64 Points)

Sat top on goal difference coming into this run-in, Arsenal know that their fate is partially in their own hands but they will need to avoid a repeat of last season’s self-destruction if want a first league title in 20 years.

Unbeaten at home in the league since the turn of 2024, Arsenal really should have enough quality to defeat Luton, Bournemouth and Everton whilst I can see them being forced to settle for draws against Villa and Chelsea, with 11 points looking an impressive return at home.

Mikel Arteta’s Gunners however do have difficult away games but if they can pull off the impossible at Man City then follow up with wins at Brighton and Wolves, there shouldn’t be little doubt that they can get something at Spurs and Man Utd despite their poor away form in those games.

Two draws in those latter away games therefore would be a fair result but I expect them to nick one win in those two games, although a minimum of 7 points must be the ideal aim on the road if want to stand any chance of the title. because they will surely slip up on the road at some point.

18 points therefore does look achievable given their decent home games left but their remaining away matches will define their league campaign without a doubt this season.

Prediction: 18 points

Liverpool (64 Points)

Facing their final run-in under the reins of Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool will be pretty happy with their remaining games – aside from trips to Fulham, Everton and West Ham in the space of six days (unless West Ham game is delayed depending upon Arsenal’s European antics).

At home, Liverpool should comfortably beat Sheffield Utd, Palace and Wolves but I can see Brighton and Spurs being potential banana skins, so ten points from their last five league games at Anfield under Klopp would be a strong return.

Liverpool’s remaining away games however do all look like potential slip-ups given that their opposition are all fighting for either Europa League qualification or survival.

I however do expect them to at least snatch draws at Man Utd, West Ham and Villa at minimum but Klopp’s Reds really need to target wins at Fulham and Everton, although there is bound to be at least one slip-up so a return of seven points on the road would be a solid haul.

17 points in total therefore does look a fairly achievable outcome for Liverpool even if it isn’t enough for the title.

Prediction: 17 points

Manchester City (63 Points)

Usually locked in a straight head-to-head battle for the title, Man City now face their toughest Premier League title fight whilst dealing with some injuries – especially in defence.

Man City though should easily beat Luton, Wolves and West Ham in their final three home games of the season, although draws against Arsenal and Villa have to be the minimal aim given that those two clubs aren’t the rollover teams of recent seasons.

A minimum of nine points at home therefore must be the aim for City because there could well be one or two slip-ups against Arsenal and Villa.

Looking at City’s remaining away games, only the trips to Crystal Palace and Fulham scream victory because Brighton and Forest could certainly run them close – especially falling in-between their FA Cup semi-final and a potential Champions League semi-final first leg.

I however do expect City to win at least one of those two league matches and draw the other such will be the need for squad rotation, before factoring in any injuries to key players which could flare up at this stage of the season.

Tottenham meanwhile have been City’s Achilles heel aside from that scrappy FA Cup win earlier this season, so going to North London in the final midweek is not ideal – especially if City need to win to take their title defence to the final day so a draw might just be a fair result there.

10 points in their last five away matches therefore does feel like it has to be the optimal target for City, which would mean a possible 19 points in total across the run-in unless injuries and defensive vulnerability play their parts in derailing their title challenge.

Prediction: 19 points

Down to the Wire

If added the projected points predictions to the current points total of those three teams and it would still see the title go down to the wire, with Liverpool coming third albeit one point behind Arsenal and Man City which would in-turn see goal difference play its part.

At present, Arsenal have the superior advantage in goal difference and if they can continue their form, I would fancy them to nick the title on goal difference under this scenario.