Scale of Russian air force losses in Ukraine revealed by US NATO commander

Russia has lost about 10 percent of its aircraft in more than two years of war in Ukraine, the head of the United States’ European forces has said, weeks ahead of a potential new Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Moscow’s military has lost “no capacity at all” in some areas—including its strategic forces, space capabilities and long-range aviation—despite waging war in Ukraine for more than 25 months, General Christopher Cavoli, the commander of the U.S. European Command and NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe, told the House Armed Services Committee on April 10.

“The air force has lost some aircraft, but only about 10 percent of their fleet,” Cavoli said.

According to figures published by the Ukrainian military, Russia has lost 347 aircraft and another 325 helicopters since February 2022. Kyiv’s tallies have not been independently verified.

Earlier this year, Ukraine reported a spike in Russian aircraft losses, saying Kyiv’s forces had downed a total of 13 aircraft, including an advanced A-50 spy plane, in as many days. Shortly after Ukraine’s statements, the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank, evaluated that the spate of aviation losses had nudged Russia into rolling back its aircraft activity in eastern Ukraine.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email.

Referring to Ukraine’s reports from February, Nicholas Aucott, a senior military adviser with the U.K. government, said in March that the “repeated destruction of warplanes is a significant setback for Russia’s war effort.”

Available information suggests Moscow “is losing jets 20 times faster than they can replace them,” Aucott added.

But Russia has put its defense industry on a war footing and may now be able to replenish the losses it has been sustaining in Ukraine. Russia’s land forces have taken the brunt of the effects of the war, but Moscow “is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested,” Cavoli said.

Russia’s army is 15 percent larger than it was in February 2022, the commander added.

“Perhaps most concerning, the Russian military in the past year has shown an accelerating ability to learn and adapt to battlefield challenges both tactically and technologically, and has become a learning organization that little resembles the chaotic force that invaded Ukraine two years ago,” Cavoli said.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said earlier in April that Russia had “almost completely reconstituted militarily” over the past few months.

Referencing these remarks, the ISW think tank suggested on April 3 that Russia was likely “preparing and may already have sufficient manpower and materiel to significantly intensify ongoing offensive operations or initiate offensive efforts in new areas” of the frontline.

Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, has warned that Russia could mount a new offensive as early as May. Ukrainian officials and Western officials have said Ukraine’s ability to fend off Russian pushes hinges on Western military aid, much of which is still languishing in Congress after months of debate.

As with Russia’s aircraft losses, it is difficult to establish the current state of Ukraine’s aerial fleet. Russia’s Defense Ministry said on April 14 that Ukraine had lost 583 aircraft and 270 helicopters since February 2022. These tallies have not been independently verified.

Ukraine has been waiting for deliveries of Western-made F-16 fighter jets from a handful of its backers since the fourth-generation jets were promised to Kyiv last year. The aircraft could plug some of Ukraine’s aircraft losses, and they would be an upgrade from the legacy fleet Kyiv operates. However, experts have suggested that the tens of jets Ukraine is set to receive may struggle to make a real difference down the length of the frontline.