NFL Week 16 aftershocks: Does inconsistent Russell Wilson merit a longer stay in Denver?

In line with the holiday spirit, NFL teams gifted their fan bases merry wins (Buccaneers over Jaguars, Ravens over 49ers) or lumps of coal (Chiefs fall to Raiders, Broncos lose to Patriots). Here’s a look at four aftershocks from Week 16.

Changes are likely coming for the Broncos

The Broncos’ roller-coaster season took another downturn in Week 16 with a 26-23 loss to the lowly Patriots in Denver. At 7-8, the playoffs are now likely out of reach for Denver.

Sean Payton’s first season as Broncos HC is difficult to assess. Denver began the season 1-5, but then went on a five-game winning streak before losing three of its next four. Quarterback Russell Wilson is playing well (26 TD passes to eight interceptions), but he hasn’t won consistently, posting an 11-19 record as a Bronco.

Denver can move on from Wilson next season, but it wouldn’t be cheap.

“There would be significant cap consequences for moving on,” per Mike Florio of NBC Sports’ Pro Football Talk. “A pre-June 1 trade would result in a $72 million cap charge for 2024. A release with a post-June 1 designation would limit the cap charge in 2024 to $35.4 million ($10 million signing bonus proration, $8.4 million option bonus proration, $17 million fully-guaranteed salary). Then, in 2025, the Broncos would absorb another $53.6 million in dead money.”

If Payton is inclined to move on from Wilson and build around one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft, he probably must move up in the first round. Per tankathon.com, the Broncos hold the 14th overall pick. Denver has selections in the first, third, fourth, fifth and sixth rounds. As part of its deal to acquire Payton, Denver sent a first-round pick in 2023 and second-round selection in 2024 to the Saints.

The top QBs in the draft are widely regarded as North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Southern Cal’s Caleb Williams, whom Payton called a “generational player” last November. 

Wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy — who were on the trade block earlier this season — could be dealt to recoup draft capital lost in the Wilson trade and give Denver more ammo to move up in the draft.

Bet on Payton making a big move and starting over at QB.

The Buccaneers have found their Tom Brady replacement

Though Baker Mayfield isn’t the “GOAT,” he is the quarterback who gives the Buccaneers the best chance to win now and in the near future.

Mayfield turned in another dominant performance in the Buccaneers 30-12 win over the Jaguars, completing 26-of-35 passes (74%) for 283 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. In December alone, he is 4-0 with 10 total touchdowns (nine passing, one rushing) and just one interception.

Thanks to their active four-game win streak, the Buccaneers (8-7) have a clear path to a division title and playoff berth. So long as they win one of their two remaining games — either against the Saints or Panthers — Tampa Bay will end the season atop the NFC South.

Mayfield is an unrestricted free agent after the season. Count on the Bucs bringing him back with a multi-year deal. 

Antonio Pierce has earned the full-time coaching job in Las Vegas

The Raiders traveled to Kansas City seemingly hoping for a Christmas miracle against Kansas City, who they hadn’t beaten in six straight games. Yet Las Vegas pulled out a 20-14 victory in Arrowhead Stadium, adding another impressive bullet point to Pierce’s head coaching application.

It wasn’t all smooth sailing for the Raiders, who were playing without star running back Josh Jacobs due to a quad injury. Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell didn’t commit a turnover, but also didn’t complete a pass after the first quarter.

Thanks to a strong game plan and stellar play on defense, Las Vegas kept its slim playoff hopes alive after beginning the season 3-5 under former HC Josh McDaniels. If the Raiders finish the season on a high note, Pierce — who’s 4-3 after taking over — should be a lock for a full-time coaching job. He has the endorsement of CBS analyst Tony Romo, a former NFL QB.