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In just over a week, the NCAA Tournament bracket will be revealed.
Naturally, the focus will be on the top teams. Will UConn win back-to-back titles? Can Purdue get over the hump after years of March heartbreaks? What about Houston, Tennessee, North Carolina, Arizona and Duke and Kentucky?
But, when filling out a bracket, the most common error people make is going with too much chalk. It may seem appealing — and safe — to have a Final Four composed of all No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. However, the percentage play is actually to go with a sleeper or two.
Dating to 2013, every NCAA Tournament has seen (at least) one team seeded fifth or lower reach the final weekend. In a single-elimination format, all bets are off.
That being said, here are four teams that are capable of going on a surprising (at face value) run. These teams probably will be a No. 5 seed or lower and have the qualities you need in a March Madness contender.
All seeds are per bracketmatrix.com, which compiles an average of bracket projections.
Dayton | No. 6 seed
Kudos to Anthony Grant. The 57-year-old head coach has the Flyers at 23-6 (13-4 in the Atlantic 10), their fifth 20-win season since the former Alabama and VCU coach took over in March 2017.
Dayton, which is 18th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, is led by DaRon Holmes II. The standout forward is averaging 20.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.2 blocks, putting him in the All-America mix.
Dayton slows it down (338th nationally in adjusted tempo, per KenPom), relies on its stud and makes you pay from deep — the Flyers are fourth nationally in three-point percentage, at 40.2%.
Texas Tech | No. 7 seed
Boasting wins over Texas, BYU, Oklahoma and Kansas, the re-tooled Red Raiders are a surprise in year one under Grant McCasland.
Only three of Texas Tech’s top eight scorers (guards Pop Isaacs, Kerwin Walton and Lamar Washington) returned after Mark Adams resigned last March, but that hasn’t stopped this team from racking up 21 wins.
Another group that slows it down (251st nationally in adjusted tempo), the Red Raiders are worth keeping an eye on in the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments.
Nevada | No. 8 seed
Led by the backcourt duo of Jarod Lucas (17.5 PPG) and Kenan Blackshear (15 PPG), the Wolf Pack are headed for their second straight NCAA Tournament appearance under Steve Alford.
In a tie for second — behind only Utah State — in the Mountain West, Nevada is tied for 46th nationally in three-point percentage (36.5%). This team has won nine of its past 10 games and looks primed to keep it going once the bracket is set.
Seton Hall | No. 11 seed
First, the Pirates — led by head coach Shaheen Holloway — must make the Big Dance. Seton Hall appears in 97 of 113 brackets, per bracketmarix.com, and just knocked off fellow bubble team Villanova at home on Wednesday.
With a home win on Saturday over lowly DePaul and a solid showing in the Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden next week, the Pirates should be in the field of 68.
Once there, a team that ranks 264th nationally in adjusted tempo — noticing a theme — has a shot at doing what Holloway did in taking Saint Peter’s to the Elite Eight as a No. 15 seed in 2022: Take the air out of the ball and grind out wins in March.
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