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Expectations are everything in life, and they certainly were key to the outcome of the second Republican debate held at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California.
The winner of the evening was Gov. Ron DeSantis, for whom expectations were low. The audience was reminded of his achievements and why the Florida governor is running second in the GOP primary polls.
Nikki Haley, from whom much was expected, failed to live up to her performance in the first debate, but held her own.
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Vivek Ramaswamy was not as annoying as in the first debate, but he has yet to show he is ready to be president.
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott was more combative, as expected, but probably did not move the needle on his chances.
As for everybody else – with respect, it is time for Mike Pence, Chris Christie (seriously), and Doug Burgum to drop out of the race. Fewer contestants would mean less fighting for air time and less bickering; that would be a relief.
DeSantis had a great deal at stake coming into the second GOP debate. His polls have been slipping, he has made some mistakes in his campaign and he is widely viewed as unable to connect with voters.
Helped by low expectations, DeSantis had a good night. He may not bounce in the polls, but he should have stopped the bleeding. He trained his fire on Joe Biden, blaming the president (rightly) for too much government spending and for inflation; he also criticized former President Donald Trump, who again declined to participate in the GOP forum.
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Throughout the evening DeSantis pointed to his accomplishments in Florida – in education, the state is ranked number one, and Florida is also enjoying a 50-year low in crime, for instance.
Questioned about the 2.5 million people in his state lacking health insurance, he was able to boast of Florida’s large influx of people and the state’s low unemployment rate.
DeSantis reminded voters of his extraordinary success in last year’s midterms, when the GOP generally came up short; it’s perhaps his best argument.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley went into the forum with considerable momentum. She won the first debate by being well prepared, well spoken, and – most important—by having a nuanced position on abortion. She has been rising in the polls and recently surged to second place in New Hampshire, for instance, behind front-runner Donald Trump.
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Haley made some good points, proposing various ways to bring down the cost of health care, for instance, and demanding an overhaul of our public schools. But she also picked fights with her fellow Republicans, especially Ramaswamy and Scott. It was foolish; neither candidate is a serious challenge to Haley and, unfortunately, mud wrestling does not flatter many women. Is that sexist? Maybe, but it is also true. Nikki held her ground, barely.
Vivek Ramasamy, who introduced himself to Americans in the first debate, came across in that forum as insufferably cocky and disrespectful. His bumptiousness was memorable but not especially appealing.
Having been rebuked for that performance, the 38-year-old tech entrepreneur changed tack. Early on, he declared allegiance to Ronald Reagan’s famous Eleventh Commandment: Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.
For much of the night, Ramaswamy stuck to that edict, repeatedly attesting to his respect for the other candidates. He declared that the real divide in the nation was not between Republicans running for president but between those who believe in traditional American values like meritocracy and free speech and the fringe group of progressive Democrats who do not.
Ramaswamy was, as ever, articulate, thoughtful and occasionally controversial. He advocated for the end of birthright citizenship and stood firmly against allowing transgender treatments without parental consent; he is right on both counts. But many will see him as lacking the gravitas to be president of the United States.
Others on the stage, including former Vice President Mike Pence, can talk of their past achievements in office and the value of their experience; Ramaswamy cannot.
Yes, Americans can fall in love with an outsider, as they did with Donald Trump, but the former president came equipped with a lifetime of achievements.
Despite his good intentions, Ramaswamy could not avoid spats.
Haley attacked him for being on TikTok, his business ties to China and his naivete on international affairs. “Every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber,” Haley said and added, “We can’t trust you on China.”
The spat continued when talk moved to Haley’s support for our alliance with Ukraine. She says “A win for Russia is a win for China,” which is true.
Ramaswamy disagrees and says that “just because Russia is bad doesn’t mean Ukraine is good”, pointing to corruption and other issues inside that country. Both made valid points but since they talked over each other it was not so much a debate as a food fight.
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Sen. Scott had clearly been urged to come out swinging, to break through at this second debate. But his aggression was so at odds with his hopeful and optimistic politics – and personal story – that it seemed forced.
His best moment was his assertion that Black Americans survived slavery and poll taxes but had been seriously harmed by Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society, which put too many on welfare and broke up Black families. He reiterated his conviction that the United States is not a racist country, a message that is welcome in these times.
Chris Christie, who has exactly zero chance of becoming the GOP nominee and is polling at an average of 2.2% according to Real Clear Politics, took on Donald Trump in absentia, which appears to be his mission.
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Looking squarely into the camera, he addressed the former president saying “I know you’re watching” and then warned that not showing up earned him the moniker “Donald Duck.”
Given Trump’s penchant for pejorative nicknames, it seemed only fair.
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