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WASHINGTON — Donald Trump never thought he would return to Washington like this.
Under indictment.
The former president and current Republican presidential front-runner lands back in the nation’s capital on Thursday – not to go the White House, but to the federal courthouse a dozen blocks away to plead not guilty to charges of conspiracy to steal the 2020 election from President Joe Biden.
A universe of demonstrators, reporters, camera people and a global television audience await Trump’s trip to the courthouse that is within a three-block view of the white-domed U.S. Capitol – the building attacked by Trump supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, the trigger for the election-blocking allegations pending against him.
“Why didn’t they bring this ridiculous case 2.5 years ago?” Trump said on his Truth Social website. “They wanted it right in the middle of my campaign, that’s why!”
A different political planet
The not guilty plea is expected. What people don’t know is how this latest arraignment – Trump’s third in four months – will affect his 2024 presidential campaign and his attempts to stay out of prison.
So far, at least, legal problems have helped Trump capture a commanding position in the 2024 Republican presidential race, according to polls that also show a tight prospective general election race with Biden.
GOP primary opponents try to figure out how to deal with an unprecedented election issue, given the number of Republican voters who believe Trump’s claims that Biden Democrats are trying to persecute him.
It’s as if the 2024 presidential election will be fought on a different political planet.
“As unprecedented as Venus’ temperature falling to 70 degrees Fahrenheit?” joked Republican political consultant Liz Mair. “As unprecedented as Jupiter suddenly developing a rocky surface?”
There’s more unprecedented to come, maybe for years.
Donald Trump in prison? Not for a while (if ever)
If prosecutors have their way, Trump will be on trial in three and perhaps four venues next year – while he is seeking to be the first former president to reclaim the White House in more than 130 years, something that Grover Cleveland did back in 1892.
Trump’s enemies, and a few of his friends, are even speculating about the prospect of him campaigning from prison – though that seems highly unlikely.
If Trump is convicted in any of these cases against him, he would likely appeal all the way to the Supreme Court.
The process could take years.
“He will absolutely seek a stay of incarceration pending appeal,” said national security attorney Bradley P. Moss. “And the government, aware of the political considerations, no doubt will agree to it for that limited purpose.”
And if Trump fails to regain the White House? “The $64,000 question is what type of arrangement the government will have to set up to incarcerate a former president who, by law, is entitled to Secret Service protection,” Moss said.
Bracing for Trump at the courthouse
A day before Trump’s arraignment, the proverbial calm before the political storm reigned outside the E. Barrett Prettyman Courthouse in the heart of Washington, D.C.
While television production trucks lined the street at the junction of Pennsylvania Avenue and Constitution Avenue and pointed cameras at the front of the courthouse, the only noise included usual horn-honking and sirens from D.C. traffic, as well as the voices of television correspondents doing occasional stand-ups.
Also spotted: Security personnel.
Wary of trouble, several Federal Protective Service officers, the law enforcement agency of the Homeland Security Department, patrolled outside the courthouse. Some led a bomb-sniffing police dog around the exterior of the building.
From Watergate to Oliver North
As he is processed and taken to the courtroom for arraignment, Trump will be walking through history.
Opened in 1952, the U.S. courthouse in the center of the federal government has seen more than its share of big cases, from the Watergate scandal that brought down President Richard Nixon to the Microsoft antitrust lawsuit. In 1996, then-first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton showed up to testify before a grand jury about missing Whitewater documents.
More recent defendants include Trump political adviser Roger Stone – whom he later pardoned – and hundreds of people charged with breaking into the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Trump doesn’t have to run this gauntlet, however; there is also an underground entrance for his motorcade.
Trump the front-runner
Trump enters his third plea while in a commanding position to again win the Republican presidential nomination.
A day before the Jan. 6 indictment, a highly-publicized New York Times/Siena College poll gave Trump a lead of more than 35 percentage points over his nearest competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
A crowded legal schedule
After his arraignment, a judge and attorneys will try to map out a trial schedule for the Jan. 6 – a big addition to Trump’s already busy legal agenda.
In late March, a state grand jury in New York indicted him in connection with an alleged hush money scheme. A trial is scheduled for next March, in the middle of Republican primary season.
In June, a federal grand jury in Florida charged the former president with obstruction of justice by trying to hide classified material in his possession. A trial in that case is scheduled for May, by which time the identity of the Republican presidential nominee will be known.
Meanwhile, a state grand jury in Atlanta is considering indicting Trump and others for efforts to overturn Biden’s win in Georgia.
Trump is expected to seek delays of all these trials until after the next presidential election, which is Nov. 5, 2024.
DeSantis and other Republican candidates
While preparing from criminal trials, Trump will also presumably be campaigning for the presidency.
DeSantis and other Republican challengers, mindful that Trump seemed to benefit politically from his first two indictments, have been loathe to criticize him over legal problems.
With this third case looming, there are signs that may be changing.
Pence calls out Trump
Former Vice President Mike Pence, a target of Trump’s pressure campaign to overturn the election and a witness in the grand jury case, amped up his criticism after the Jan. 6 indictment.
It “serves as an important reminder: anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be President of the United States,” Pence said.
Few people represent the unusual nature of this moment than Mike Pence: A former vice president running against the former president who put him on the ticket in 2016, a vice president who testified in a grand jury investigation of that president – and a vice president who could be a witness at trial.
Pence, like other candidates, also said that Trump’s legal problems will distract from Republican efforts to make the election about Biden and his policies.
“Our country is more important than one man,” Pence said. “Our constitution is more important than any one man’s career.”
DeSantis and other candidates have criticized the prosecutors, not the defendants.
“I will end the weaponization of government,” DeSantis said after the announcement was read.
Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., also bemoaned “weaponization” and, like other Republicans, contrasted the indictments of Trump with the investigation of presidential son Hunter Biden. He claimed “two different tracks of justice, one for political opponents and another for the son of the current president.”
Christie: Trump ‘disgraced’ the office
Long-shot candidates Chris Christie, Will Hurd, and Asa Hutchinson have said Trump’s behavior is probably illegal and certainly disqualifying for the Republican nomination.
Christie, in a post on the X platform, said White House actions after Election Day 2020 “are a stain on our country’s history” and the disgrace falls mainly on Trump. “He swore an oath to the Constitution, violated his oath & brought shame to his presidency,” Christie said.
After the unsealing of this indictment, Hurd repeated a now-familiar mantra: “Trump’s presidential bid is driven by an attempt to stay out of prison and scam his supporters into footing his legal bills.”
A history of challenges
It didn’t start with Trump: American democracy has always been contested.
Back in 1807, former Vice President Aaron Burr – the man who shot and killed Alexander Hamilton in a duel – was tried for treason on charges that he tried to split off the western part of the United States and create a new country.
Burr was acquitted.
In the 1860s, the nation convulsed into Civil War over slavery, secession, and so-called state’s rights.
The most frequent Trump comparison is Watergate, efforts by former President Richard Nixon and allies to cover up “dirty tricks” against political opponents that included the break-in of Democratic Party headquarters then located in the Watergate building.
Nixon was never tried in that case; successor Gerald Ford pardoned him beforehand.
Political scientist Lara Brown, author of a book called Amateur Hour: Presidential Character and the Question of Leadership, said “Trump (and his co-conspirators) engaged in acts far outside the constitutional order. They attacked and sought to alter the legitimate processes for casting, counting, and certifying the popular votes and the electoral votes for president in several states.”
Whatever a jury decides, she said, “it is clear that these actions represent some of the most violent assaults on the Constitution and our democratic republic in American history.”
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