Wall Street will seek confirmation the Fed is done in next week’s big inflation data
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The strong start to November could get its first major test next week as investors parse October inflation data to see whether the Federal Reserve is done hiking, as well as the possibility of another government shutdown. Stocks are higher this month after suffering three straight months of declines, supported by falling Treasury yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 3% this month, while the S & P 500 advanced about 5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the outperformer, rising 7%. What’s more, both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite this week have managed to net their longest win streaks in two years. .SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 But stocks could see some volatility in the week ahead. The October consumer price index, which would be the first fourth-quarter reading, will be especially important as investors determine whether inflation has cooled enough for the Federal Reserve to ease up on its tightening campaign. At its November meeting, the central bank kept rates unchanged for a second straight time. “Our view is that the Fed is done,” said Amy Magnotta, co-chief investment officer at Ategenos Capital. “But we need more confirmation there from the CPI number.” A ‘nuanced story’ Many expect the headline CPI number that’s set to release Tuesday will show inflation easing last month, a bullish development for equities. Economists polled by FactSet expect U.S. inflation to have risen just 0.1% last month and 3.3% from the year-ago period. That’s slower than the pace of increase in September , when inflation gained 0.4% on the month and 3.7% on the year. But investors will look for further improvement in the so-called core CPI number, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is given more weight by policymakers. It’s anticipated to show a rise of 0.3% on the month and 4.1% on the year, according to FactSet, in line with the prior month’s reading. There’s also a more “nuanced story” for investors taking a peek under the hood, according to Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY. While the economist expects falling oil prices will have driven downward pressure on inflation last month, he’ll be watching other costs — such as shelter and health care — that have proven to be more sticky. Ned Davis Research’s chief global macro strategist Joe Kalish said he would pay especially close attention to medical care and insurance costs, as well as the impact of the auto strike on used car prices and new car prices. An uptick in those two areas could mean inflation could remain fairly persistent. “I’m very interested to see those numbers because those were two big pieces that were helping to pull inflation down, and if those come up, and they should, … that could keep the Fed in place,” NDR’s Kalish said. Cracks in consumer data Investors will also watch for the October retail sales data for insight into the consumer, who has thus far proven resilient even in the face of higher interest rates and inflation. However, the data that’s set to come out Wednesday is expected to show some cracks in spending, a sign that the long and variable lags of tightening monetary policy may finally be having their intended effect. Economists polled by FactSet expect retail sales to have contracted by 0.1% in October, down sharply from a 0.7% increase in the prior month. If those expectations bear out, some investors expect that would be a positive development for the Fed. However, others worry that the eventual impact of higher interest rates on the consumer — who has become acclimated to pandemic stimulus and a decade of interest rates held near zero — could signal a sharper downturn ahead than traders are currently forecasting. “We haven’t yet seen the consumer pull back from its consumption habits,” said Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investments at Thornburg Investment Management. “And that concerns us that we will head into a default cycle.” Next week, Wall Street will have to contend once more with a possible government shutdown if a resolution isn’t reached by Friday, Nov. 17. It’s a scenario that looks increasingly likely with no set plan on a path forward. But many traders are bullish on the outlook for equities from here as seasonal tailwinds could give them a boost. “Even if we do have some additional volatility next week, given some of this economic data and the government shutdown, that will still be positive looking out a little bit further,” Magnotta said. Investors will also be watching for the October producer price index (PPI) data on Wednesday, as well as housing data on Friday. On the earnings front, investors will be reviewing earnings from some major retail bellwethers such as Home Depot on Tuesday, Target on Wednesday and Walmart on Thursday. Week ahead schedule All times ET. Monday Nov. 13 Earnings: Tyson Foods Tuesday Nov. 14 8:30 a.m. CPI (October) 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings final (October) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek final (October) Earnings: Home Depot , Charles Schwab Wednesday Nov. 15 8:30 a.m. Empire State Index (November) 8:30 a.m. PPI (October) 8:30 a.m. Retail Sales (October) 10 a.m. Business Inventories (September) Earnings: Target , Palo Alto Networks , TJX Thursday Nov. 16 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (11/04) 8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (October) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (11/11) 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (November) 9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization (October) 9:15 a.m. Industrial Production (October) 9:15 a.m. Manufacturing Production (October) 9:25 a.m. New York Federal Reserve President and CEO John Williams speaks 10 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (November) 11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (November) Earnings: Ross Stores , Walmart , Bath & Body Works Friday Nov. 17 8:30 a.m. Building Permits (October) 8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (October) Earnings: Progressive
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