Week 15 NFL spreads and storylines: AFC playoff race leaves little room for error
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Week 15 in the NFL began with an ugly effort from the Chargers that ended in a 63-21 blowout Raiders win Thursday, which resulted in L.A.’s head coach and general manager getting fired.
That matchup had zero playoff implications, which thankfully can’t be said for any game on the weekend slate. Week 15 begins with a triple-header on Saturday and concludes with an Eagles-Seahawks Monday nighter. You know the playoffs are near when these Saturday games start popping up on the schedule.
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SPREADS & TOTALS
– MIN (+3.0) at CIN (-3.0) | O/U: 40.5 (1:00 p.m. ET*Saturday)
– PIT (+1.5) at IND (-1.5) | O/U: 42.5 (4:05 p.m. ET*Saturday)
– DEN (+4.5) at DET (-4.5) | O/U: 47.5 (8:15 p.m. ET*Saturday)
– HOU (+3.5) at TEN (-3.5) | O/U: 36.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– CHI (+3.0) at CLE (-3.0) | O/U: 38.5 (1:00 p.m. ET
– TB (+3.5) at GB (-3.5) | O/U: 42.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– NYJ (+9.5) at MIA (-9.5) | O/U: 37.0 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– KC (-8.5) at NE (+8.5) | O/U: 37.0 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– NYG (+5.5) at NO (-5.5) | O/U: 39.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– ATL (-3.5) at CAR (+3.5) | O/U: 33.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– WAS (+6.5) at LAR (-6.5) | O/U: 50.5 (4:05 p.m. ET)
– SF (-12.5) at ARI (+12.5) | O/U: 48.0 (4:05 p.m. ET)
– DAL (+1.5) at BUF (-1.5) | O/U: 50.0 (4:25 p.m. ET)
– BAL (-3.0) at JAX (+3.0) | O/U: 42.5 (8:20 p.m. ET)
– PHI (-3.0) at SEA (+3.0) | O/U: 47.5 (8:15 p.m. ET*Monday)
The dogs were barking last week with eight underdogs winning outright, including a pair of massive Monday upsets that resulted in the NFC and AFC playoff races both tightening even further.
The Browns are 4-0 against the spread (ATS) when favourites at home. They’re facing a Bears team 4-3 ATS as road dogs and 2-5 straight up as the road team.
Speaking of road dogs, no team has covered more than the Bucs (6-1 ATS as road underdog) who head into Lambeau looking to stay atop the pitiful NFC South.
Two games have totals that need to get to 51 to hit the over: Commanders at Rams and Cowboys at Bills. Dallas and Washington are both 8-5 on overs this season, while L.A. is 6-7 and Buffalo 4-9.
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WEEK 15 STORYLINES TO FOLLOW
AFC playoff race leaves little room for mistakes: There are six AFC teams jammed up in the standings with records of 7-6 heading into this weekend and four of them play on Saturday. Buffalo ends its insanely difficult stretch of schedule on Sunday in the game of the week versus a Cowboys battling the 49ers and Eagles for a first-round bye. The Bills will keep a close eye on Saturday’s results because, unlike the NFC that currently has two sub-.500 teams occupying playoff spots, the AFC playoff bubble teams have less room for error and are closer to must-win territory.
Texans likely turning to Mills: How many times has the phrase “Houston, we have a problem!” been used annoyingly this week when referring to the 7-6 Texans and their recent string of injuries to key players on offence? C.J. Stroud left last week’s game with a concussion and is doubtful for Sunday. The team had already lost rookie WR Tank Dell for the season and fellow receivers Nico Collins and Noah Brown are both listed as questionable with lower-body injuries. Davis Mills would start at Tennessee if Stroud isn’t cleared and his top target could end up being tight end Dalton Schultz. The Titans are coming off a dramatic win over the Dolphins.
Battle of the Bays: Green or Tampa? One of them will get to .500 with a win and remain in an NFC playoff spot heading into the final three weeks of the regular season. The other will fall to 6-8 and face a more daunting uphill climb to the post-season. The Packers were upset by the Giants last week and could be without their top two running backs, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillion, who are questionable plus WR Christian Watson is doubtful. Jaire Alexander is among Green Bay’s defensive players with questionable tags. Tampa will be without defensive back Carlton Davis and defensive lineman Will Gholston and might not have Vita Vea. Chris Godwin is also questionable for the Bucs.
Can Chicago manage a best-of-both-worlds end to season? If the Bears upset the Browns to win their third in a row they’d find themselves sitting at 6-8 with an outside shot at the NFC playoffs still within reach. Chicago, winners in three of their past four overall, return home for winnable games against the Cardinals and Falcons the next two weeks before they’d end the season at the Packers with a potential playoff spot on the line in Week 18. All that while the Panthers occupy the 32nd spot in the standings which would give the Bears the first-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. That would be quite the needle to thread.
(Betting odds and trends via Covers as of Friday and subject to change)
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